Sunday, April 26, 2009

Why Am I Bearish?


Here is some great post from some of my favorite bears. Do the bears really have a case considering the recent market?


From Zero Hedge......

"The One Trillion Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb"

Imminently, Zero Hedge will present some of its recently percolating theories about some oddly convenient coincidences we have witnessed in the commercial real estate market. However, for now I focus on some additional facts about why the unprecedented economic deterioration and the resulting epic drop in commercial real estate values could result in over $1 trillion in upcoming headaches for financial institutions, investors and the administration....Complete Story

From Atilla at Xtrends....

Modified "P-Index"

Do you remember this custom index I created back in August 2008 which helped me to capture the crash. The following chart belongs to the new version of that index. This modified P-Index contains an additional sector and all of its coefficients are adjusted accordingly. I have been following this new index for the last few weeks and it was another reason I called 850 area intermediate top. It doesn't matter whether SP overshoots 10 or 20 points above 850, we are forming an important intermediate term top here....Complete Story

From "The Slope Of Hope"....

"Post Test"

Well, I'm done with my exam, and wow, it was a tough one. I'll be kind of stunned if I actually manage to pass it. I'll find out in a few weeks, I'm told. Speaking of stunned, that's how I felt (mildly) when I saw this in today's Barron's, which I've scanned in for you I honestly thought it wouldn't be until autumn that we say this kind of public sycophancy. I mean, seriously. "Thank You"? Isn't it just a little premature? But Sy Harding might be right in this respect - - maybe 2009 will be the bottom of the bear. I've tried to look at the long-term charts with fresh eyes, and I'm starting to question my oft-repeated notion that we're going to claw our way to 1,050 by autumn and then plummet to the 400s on the S&P....Complete Story


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