Sunday, August 30, 2009

How to Day Trade and Swing Trade GLD Spot Gold Chart

From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy.....

Over the past couple of months, gold and silver have been uneventful. In this report I have posted weekly charts to show the larger trend of gold and silver. Also I have provided small charts of the US and Canadian gold stock funds GDX and XGD.

Because this report has weekly charts, which are a slow and dull time frame to follow, I have added another one of my Kitco Spot Gold Overlay trades, which is a short day trade to liven things up.

GLD ETF – Gold Bullion Price Action – Weekly Chart
I spoke with a few members last week, who wanted me to change my analysis for gold, which I agree with. So I would like to address this now to keep everyone on the same path.

In previous reports I have pointed out the reverse head & shoulders pattern in this weekly chart below. But to be honest, it is not a reverse head & shoulders, which everyone is saying it to be.

Why is gold not in a reverse H & S pattern? Because a reverse H & S pattern is just that, it means the price will reverse from the previous trend. A reverse H & S happens after a downtrend, which forms a bottom and the trend is not moving higher.

Gold has been moving higher, which you can see in 2007 and this large pattern is more like a Cup & Handle pattern – extremely bullish.



SLV ETF – Silver Bullion Price Action – Weekly Chart
Silver is trading a little different than gold. As you can see the price is trading much lower than the 2008 high. There are also two small patterns forming, which are a small head and shoulders top or a bullish pennant.

Last Friday we saw gold and silver prices jump, but until we get a low risk entry point, I continue to watch these commodities move inside their large weekly price patterns.



US & Canadian Gold Stock Funds
These small charts show how bullish the price action is this year for gold stocks. But the exciting part, which is tough to see here, is that the Canadian fund is starting to show bullish price action. When both the US and Canadian gold funds are moving together, it means there will most likely be some tradable moves in the near future. Let’s keep focused and ready to take action in the coming weeks, as these bull flags near the end of their cycle.




Day Trading Spot Gold – Day Trading GLD ETF
I will keep this short because I have written about this once before and below is the link to read my gold trading strategy in detail.

Day trading spot gold using the real-time kitco overlay chart is what I use to identify a possible day trade. The shaded box below shows a simple waterfall sell off and when I see that price action, I will generally take a position the next day around that time for a short trade in GLD.

I did not think to save this kitco chart until the following day so the waterfall price action was miniaturized because of Fridays rally. Also I would like to note this waterfall pattern happened 3 times in a row last week and I took advantage of them.

My Basic Strategy
Gold tends to move similar to what it did the previous day and traders know this, which is why the patterns starts 5-30 minutes earlier the following day, as we anticipate the move. Moves tend to repeat for up to 3 days. So you identify a sizable move and take action on it the following two days, as long as the rest of the day trades similar to the previous days. I like to scale into positions and once I see it going my way I add one final position to increase my exposure.

I am sure some of you are wondering how I traded GLD at 8am ET?
I trade with an online broker that allows me to trade pre-market and post market hours. Not very often these setups happen before 9:30am ET but last week it did.

Important note:
Once you see the price of gold making opposite moves of the previous day, minimize your position or don’t take the trade. As you can see in this chart below, the red line is starting to move the opposite way of the previous day (baby blue line) and later in the afternoon it was completely the opposite. This is a warning that there is a shift in the buyers/sellers and you can see the next day prices spiked higher in the opposite direction.


Read my previous Gold Day Trading Guide

Technical Gold Trading Conclusion:
Overall precious metals are trending sideways in their bullish patterns and we are waiting for some low risk entry points.

During slow trading times, which we are currently in, I like to look for other profitable positions to satisfy my need to trade. As a full time trader, it is important to have a few styles of trading, which allow you to profit in any market condition. My main focus is on the commodity ETF’s, with low risk setups, but I also day trade GLD when opportunities arise and I also trade extremely over bought/oversold index plays using the leveraged ETF’s and focusing on my Active Trading Partners stocks trades, which provides profitable trades week after week. Combining these trading styles allow me to pull money from the market week after week without forcing any positions. I just let perfect setups unfold and I take advantage of them.

Soon I will be providing these gold day trades and index trades for members, which I think is very exciting. If you would like to receive my free weekly trading reports please visit my website The Gold and Oil Guy

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Imagine Not Having Access to Any Financial News


Could you imagine not having access to any kind of financial news stories. The only information you have about the market is the market itself.

Would you be a better trader or a less successful trader?

I think you would be a better trader. I have often said that the market is the best news provider in the world. It’s up to the minute and it reflects both domestic and international issues. The success of our “Trade Triangle” technology is based upon market action.

In our new short video, we’ll take a big look at the S&P 500 market and where we expect it will head in the months to come.

We all need to be prepared for what lies ahead, and this video is worth watching for that very reason.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

New Video: Candlestick Formations You Need To Learn


Today’s short video is something quite special.

In many of our previous videos we’ve looked at charts using Japanese candlestick charts. While this is interesting, we’ve never quite explained to you some of the powers behind using Japanese candlestick charts.

The Japanese began using technical analysis to trade rice in the 17th century. While this early version of technical analysis was different from the US version initiated by Charles Dow around 1900, many of the guiding principles were very similar.

In this video we will point out to you some powerful Japanese candlestick formations on Google, Gold and Crude Oil.

Just Click Here to watch the video and please feel free to leave us a comment to let us know what you think.

Over 1,000 Hours of Trading Education

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Introducing Cornelius Luca - New Analyst on INO TV FREE


The INO TV family would like to welcome Cornelius Luca. Luca is not a new analyst, but the newest to the INO TV Free service. Don't miss his first video on INO TV Free

Luca obtained his M.B.A in International Business & Finance from the New York University Stern Graduate School of Business and his B.A. in International Marketing from Bernard Baruch College. Since then he has been an author, an advisor for multiple Fortune 500 companies, Vice President & Head Advisor for FX Concepts, and an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance.

Luca specializes in foreign exchange and technical analysis and has traded major crosses as well as exotic currencies. Luca is currently the President of Luca Global Research and has given a few mintues of his time to talk about some various topics for our INO TV Free visitors.

Just Click Here to watch this new INO video.

Monday, August 17, 2009

They Say That Timing In Life Is Everything....Major Signal issued on the Nasdaq


They Say That Timing In Life Is Everything. Today we witnessed an important “Trade Triangle” signal in this major index that should not be ignored.

In our new video, we share with you this same signal that thousands of MarketClub members witnessed and will discuss some of the potential downside targets for this index.

This is a video that is worth watching as we think we should all be prepared for what lies ahead.

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments. Enjoy the video and please give us your feedback on our blog.

Why is INO TV the Logical Choice?

Bollinger Bands 101 – How To Measure Volatility


From guest blogger Amey at The MarketClub....

One reason I prefer technical over fundamental analysis is that it is more visually appealing. By quickly glancing at a stock’s chart, I can tell whether I want to buy it, sell it, or what the price targets are.

I look at stock trading as an art, and like any craft we must constantly tweak and perfect it to achieve the most optimal outcome. As a die hard user of technical analysis, I am always trying out different indicators, seeing which ones work for my trading strategy, and dropping the ones that do not. I typically like to keep my charts clean; otherwise, I get lost and lose focus.

Note: Before utilizing any new indicators or patterns within your real time trading strategy, be sure to have tested the signals you generate from this new analysis. You can do this by either using a back testing software or just simple manual tracking of stock prices based on your analysis.


The analysis tools I want to share with you today are called Bollinger Bands. They are essentially used to measure volatility of a certain security relative towards previous trends. Generally they appear as an overlay to your chart, and trace the current range of the stock.

Bollinger Bands consists of 3 parts (all lines):
• The middle band, which is a simple moving average of a period of you specify. Usually 20
• The upper band, which is your period + N standard deviations. Usually 20 + 2 STD
• The lower band, which is your period – N standard deviations. Usually 20 – 2 STD

Typically the default value is usually a simple moving average period of 20 with a standard deviation of 2. For those none statisticians, 2 standard deviations cover about 95% of the range. Obviously, you can always tweak those numbers to match your trading strategy. Some traders even use exponential moving averages.

Just like any indicator the use of Bollinger Bands can be ambiguous. That is why it is important to test your conclusions before taking them to the real stage; however, the main purpose of these bands are to help you decide when a stock is at the high or low level of its average trading range.

That being said, some people interpret the simple signals of selling when the price hits the upper band and buying when hitting the lower band. While that may work, you can probably get more accurate results when you use other indicators and factors (i.e. RSI, patterns) to confirm the move.

The key is to remember that Bollinger Bands measures volatility. During periods of low volatility, bands are narrow, and at periods of high volatility bands are obviously wider. You will also notice that these lines seem to act as support and resistance every now and then.

In the sample chart below, you will notice how the Bollinger Bands are narrow during June and then become wider in July, once the stock spikes higher. Finally, you can see that, in August, the bands are starting to become narrower, which could mean that the price will be flattening out and the previous upward trend push could be over.


If you are looking for some indicator or overlay to measure the overall volatility of a security, then check our Bollinger Bands. They may seem confusing, but, once you actually see them in action yourself, they can blend very nicely into your trading strategy.

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Dennis Gartman’s 22 Rules of Trading


Dennis is Gartman is one of today's most popular traders and his 22 Rules of Trading have been published at many sites, many times. I think it makes a great weekend post so you can take a few quiet minutes away from the market to go through his list and mentally check off where you are at with "your" trading and investing.

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position....ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is “low.” Nor can we know what price is “high.” Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed “cheap” many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. “Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent,” according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds....they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect “gaps” in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors are profitable; in “bad times” even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.



11. Respect “outside reversals” after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more “weekly” and “monthly,” reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen… just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first “addition” should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are “right” only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom … and the ignorance....of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market’s wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we’ve learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don’t; and if it is easy to buy, don’t. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the “winning” new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when....and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

Friday, August 14, 2009

New Video: Do you have time for coffee? Starbucks VS McDonalds, the coffee battle!


It has been sometime since we last looked at this market which has had a remarkable move from its lows. So how high can Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) go given the current economy and the competition from McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) and Dunkin’ Donuts (Privately Owned)?

In this short video I will point out some key levels that I believe will present problems for this iconic coffeemaker.

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments.

Now go grab a cup of coffee and watch this video.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

New Video....The Achilles Heel of a Market

The market we are reviewing today is huge, and it is going to have a major impact on everyone's lives, including yours in the next 12 to 24 months.

In this video, we are going to expose this market's Achilles heel and an approach that has only giving winning trades over the past two years. Imagine having the formula to signals which have been right 100% of the time for the past 24 months. Imagine how valuable that could be to you.

I'm not sure how long this video will remain online, as I do not want the Google search bots to pick it up and publish it. This is one video that needs to fly under the radar.

Just click here > The Achilles Heel of a Market

P.S. If the link is grayed out then the video is offline and unavailable.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Is this the Gold move we’ve all been waiting for?


Has the ‘Gold Bull’ finally arrived? Is this the Gold move we’ve all been waiting for?

Is the big move finally here? With so many stops and starts in the gold market, it’s hard to know which way is up.

We’re only going to leave this online for a short time. Given the state of the current economy, things move quickly. If the video isn’t watched soon, it won’t be of any use to you. So I urge you to take a few minutes to watch the possible outlooks for gold on the upside.

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments. I highly recommend watching this video today otherwise you risk missing out on what could be the move of the year.

Just Click Here to enjoy the video.

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY...Click Here

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Dead For 750 Years and Still Right on in The Markets


You may have heard about Fibonacci, the man who discovered a set of numbers which have been found to have a major affect on the market. So who is this Fibonacci fellow and why are his findings so important in the market place?

The mathematical findings by this thirteenth century Italian man has yielded a useful tool which is used in technical analysis and by scientists in a large array of fields.

In our new short video, I will look at gold and also the crude oil market using MarketClub’s Fibonacci tool. I think you will be surprised and shocked at just how accurate and up to date this dead mathematician’s work is in today’s markets.


This is such an important video that we only want to leave it online for a short time. We urge you to take 4 minutes and learn the Fibonacci secret to the markets.

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with our compliments, but you must act today otherwise you risk missing out on this key element to the market.

Just Click Here to Watch The Video!