Tuesday, May 26, 2009

New Trading Video: SP 500 17 Week Cycle?

I was just looking at the S&P 500 and noticed a very pronounced cycle in this market that I want to share with you.

In my new video I explain exactly what I’ve seen and what I expect will happen to this market if this cycle continues on track.

You can view this new video with my compliments. There are no registration requirements. Please enjoy and give your feedback by leaving a comment for us.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Thursday, May 21, 2009

New Video "SP 500 Analysis"

Today we’re going to be looking at the S&P 500 market. We last reviewed this market back on May 12th when it was trading at 908. Here we are two weeks later and the market is at 914.

That doesn’t seem like a big move, but we’ve had some pretty big moves in the interim both on the upside and downside.

I think you’ll find this new video interesting and informative. In addition to the two trend lines that I graphically illustrate in the May 12th video, I’ll share with you today two other tech indicators that I’ve been watching.

You can view this new video with my compliments. There are no registration requirements. Please enjoy and feel free to give your feedback by leaving a comment.

Just click here to watch video

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Is The Dollar In Trouble?


According to the dollar index (DX), which is a basket of currencies that track the dollar, it would appear as though the dollar is indeed going to be coming under more pressure. The dollar index is much like an index for stocks except in this case it is for currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index consists of six foreign currencies:

1. Euro (EUR)
2. Yen (JPY)
3. Cable (GBP)
4. Loonie (CAD)
5. Krona (SEK)
6. Franc (CHF)

In this new short video on the dollar index, we will show you some previous successes that MarketClub has had. I will also cover an important signal we have just received, that in my opinion, will lead to further downside weakness in this index.

As always, the videos are free to watch and there’s no need to register. We would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about the dollar market so please leave a comment.



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Friday, May 15, 2009

Daily Telegraph story now "Mysteriously" Taken Down

I just had to re publish this article first released by The Daily Telegraph. I found it still being posted over at Zero Hedge and felt I just had to post it here.

Mark Patterson: "It's A Sham. The Banks Are Insolvent"

The chairman of $7 billion distressed Private Equity firm and TARP beneficiary MatlinPatterson calls a spade a spade and in the process exposes the entire Geithner plan for the complete sham that it is. His comments before the Qatar Global Investment Forum were captured by the Daily Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard earlier, and Zero Hedge republishes the piece in its entirety as it presents every nuance of our predicament with masterful simplicity.

The Daily Telegraph story now "mysteriously" taken down.
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US 'sham' bank bail-outs enrich speculators, says buy-out chief Mark Patterson

The US Treasury’s effort to stabilise the banking system through the TARP programme is a hopelessly ill-conceived policy that enriches speculators at public expense, according to the buy-out firm supposed to be pioneering the joint public-private bank rescues.

“The taxpayers ought to know that we are in effect receiving a subsidy. They put in 40pc of the money but get little of the equity upside,” said Mark Patterson, chairman of MatlinPatterson Advisers.

The comments are likely to infuriate Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, because MatlinPatterson took advantage of the TARP’s matching funds to buy Flagstar Bancorp in Michigan. His confession appears to validate concerns that the bail-out strategy is geared towards Wall Street.
Under the convoluted deal agreed earlier this year, MatlinPatterson has come to own 80pc of the shares while the US government has ended up with under 10pc.

Mr Patterson said the US Treasury is out of its depth and seems to be trying to put off drastic action by pretending that the banking system is still viable.

“It’s a sham. The banks are insolvent. The US government is trying to sedate the public because they are down to the last $100bn (£66bn) of the $700bn TARP funds. They think they’re doing this for the greater good of society,” he said, speaking at the Qatar Global Investment Forum.

Mr Patterson said it would be better for the US to bite the bullet as Britain has done, accepting that crippled lenders must be nationalised. “At least the British are not hiding the bail-out,” he said.

MatlinPatterson said private equity and hedge funds were deluding themselves in hoping to go back to business as usual after the trauma of the last 18 months.

“This is not a normal recession and there will be no V-shaped recovery. The crisis has destroyed leveraged companies. We’re going to see a catastrophic increase in the number of LBO’s (leveraged buyouts) going into default because they’re knee-deep in debt and no solution exists since they can’t refinance,” he said.

“Alfa hedge funds have been making their money by gambling with excessive leverage, so the knife that cuts off leverage is going to cut off their heads as well,” he said.

Like many bears, Mr Patterson expects the great crunch to end in deliberate inflation, deemed a lesser evil than outright depression.

“The US government has thrown 29pc of GDP at this crisis compared to 8pc in the early 1930s. The Fed’s balance sheet has risen from $900bn to $2.7 trillion to bail out the system. America has to do it because the only way out is to debase the currency, but that is going to lead to some very high inflation three years down the road,” he said.

Matlin Patterson, however, has missed the Spring rebound, the most powerful rise in equities in over 70 years. “We shorted the equity rally because we thought it was lunatic. We’ve kept adding positions seven times, and we’re still holding,” he said. Ouch!


New Video "Apple vs. RIMM, The Battle Of The Titans"


It is the battle of the tech titans as both RIMM and Apple battle for the smartphone market share. Although Research In Motion is a well established tech giant as the creator of the BlackBerry, they may have hit a wall with Apple, Inc.’s launch of the phenomenally popular iPhone.

This tech battle may create a way to trade these markets with a lower risk. During this latest rally, RIMM did not perform well, nor were the changes in price as exuberant as the shares for AAPL.

We are looking for the general market to show weakness through the next week… with that said, we expect to see RIMM slide faster than AAPL. It may be conservative trading strategy to buy Apple and short Research In Motion. Take an equal amount of money for each market and buy a corresponding number of shares to balance the positions and decrease risk.

This is what we call “pair trading.” You’re looking for the percentage change in the market between RIMM and Apple to move in Apple’s favor no matter which direction APPL or RIMM head.

In our new short video, you will learn why I came up with this strategy and why it may offer a low-risk trade in the current market environment.


As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no requirement for registration.


Where do you think Apple and RIMM are header, or the NASDAQ as an index? Please feel free to leave a comment!


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles



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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Bears Are Saying Come On Over To Our House

Is the spring rally over? Bears have been feeling "blue" to say the least, but it seems to be time for the bears to welcome the bulls over to their house. If the SP500 challenges the 895-898 area I think most traders will be excepting the invitation....."to come on over".




Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Monday, May 11, 2009

What Is The Current Trend Of This Market?

Most of our readers seem to be focused on trading the SP 500 and the tickers they seem to trade most often is the SSO and the SDS. Here is a sample of our trend analysis for these two tickers. Sign up for our free trend analysis service and get these in your in box every morning.

SSO Strong Uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues positive longer term. Look for this market to remain firm. Strong Uptrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, SSO scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Thursday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending May 9th
+30.....New 3 Month High in May
+90.....Total Score



SDS Strong Downtrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues negative longer term. Look for this market to remain weak. Strong Downtrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, SDS scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10.....Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Friday
-20.....Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25.....New 3 Week Low, Week Ending May 9th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in May
-90.....Total Score




Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


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Thursday, May 7, 2009

The Bank Stress Test....Do you Believe It?


I have been scratching my head wondering why the market (in this case the S&P) has moved so high for little or no reason. The economy still appears to be very much on the defensive with unemployment rising and the business environment still on a slippery slope.

We made this video before the stress test was announced and suspect that all of the stress test leaks have already being discounted by the market.

Our new video is a follow up to our April 14th video. If you have a few minutes, please take the time to view it. I think you will find it interesting that our observations may conflict with current market trend.

With the Obama honeymoon coming to an end, we are going to see how the markets move without government influence. There has never been a government that was able to dodge a major business cycle, and this one sure is a doozy.

As always, the videos are available with our compliments. There is no registration required.


Please feel free to leave us a comment on where you think this market is headed!


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Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Key Levels To Watch For In The Gold Market


Today we're going to take a look at the gold market. While many traders have been frustrated with this market for the past several month, it has in fact performed quite well given the generally negative feeling for most markets.

While the printing press is going at full tilt in the US and the fact that most people are not involved in the gold market at the present time, it occurs to us that this market could indeed be setting itself up for a nice rally.

In our new video, I explain in detail some key levels to watch for in the gold market. If these levels are broken then you definitely want to take a position in the direction of the major trend.

As always, this video is available with our compliments and there is no registration required.


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

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Amex, JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon Pass Tests

"Amex, JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon Pass Tests"
At least three of the nation's 19 largest banks have passed government stress tests of their financial strength. American Express Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. will not be asked to raise more capital when federal officials announce the test results Thursday afternoon, according to people briefed on the results.

The people requested anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the results. The stress tests were designed to see how the large banks and finance companies would fare if the economy worsens. Analysts expect about half the companies will be asked to raise capital.....Complete Story


Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Sunday, May 3, 2009

My Favorite Sunday Reading

"Observations On NYSE Trading Programs".....Zero Hedge

"Dollar Calling Tops and Bottoms"?..........Charts and Coffee

"Next Week"..............Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

"Natty Update"...........Crude Oil Trading Small Specs

"If Short Term Trading is Such a Gamble, What is Long Term Investing"?....Trader Mike

"Week In Summary - GDP, Bankruptcy, Earnings, Shorts".....Bullz and Bearz



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Friday, May 1, 2009

Stress Test Results Delayed, Stocks Struggle To Get Traction


Government official: "Bank Test Results to Come Thursday"
The Federal Reserve will release "stress tests" results for the nation's biggest banks on Thursday, according to a government official.

Deliberations between banks and regulators about the tests' results pushed back the release date, which initially was expected to be earlier in the week.

In addition to an overall snapshot of the health of the 19 large banks being assessed, the Fed will provide detail about individual banks, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.....Complete Story

"Stocks in U.S. Still Looking for Traction"
Stocks in New York were testing both sides of the flat line Friday as investors took in more signs that the economic decline may be slowing, but also learned that they will have to wait a bit longer to learn about the testing that's been done on big U.S. banks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently rising 7 points to 8175, and the S&P 500 was up just more than a point at 874. The Nasdaq was slipping fractionally to 1717.

Old economy stocks were among the Dow 's leaders, with Alcoa (AA Quote) and Caterpillar [CAT Quote] gaining 3.8% and 2.1%, respectively. General Motors (GM Quote) had the worst showing, losing more than 7% a day after its competitor Chrysler's filed.....Complete Story


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