Thursday, December 31, 2009

Stock Market Commentary For Thursday Morning


The S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

However, closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1106.61 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 1127.55

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1128.20
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1114.21
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1106.61

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The NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and appears poised to extend the rally into the end of this year. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1819.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1882.00
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1848.17
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1819.20

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Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Market Bulls Find Themselves Up Against Strong Resistance


The S&P 500 closed unchanged on Wednesday due to a short covering rally, which erased early session losses. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1105.46 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1128.20
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1112.17
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1105.46

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The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral hinting that a additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1814.58 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1881.50
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1947.00

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1840.02
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1814.58

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The Dow closed lower due to light profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If the Dow extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 11249 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 10431 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 10580
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 11249

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 10,456
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 10,431

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday


Gold turns sideway after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA but at this point, further recovery cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, note that another decline is still in favor as long as 1142.9 resistance holds and below 1075.2 will target 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4 next. However, break of 1142.9 will indicate that pull back from 1227.5 has completed and stronger rally should then be seen to retest this resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Deeper pull back could now be seen to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption to another high above 1227.5.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Market Moves Higher as Indexes Test Key Fibonacci Levels


The S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally and posted a new high for the year. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1104.96 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 1127.22

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1128.20.
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1111.20.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1104.96.

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The NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the Santa Claus rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1810.77 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1881.50
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1832.92
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1810.77

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Sunday, December 20, 2009

Gold Trend – Daily & 60 Minute Chart

The trend of gold broke down from the red rising channel a couple weeks back as expected. We were taking profits at the $115 level.

The more recent price action shows two technical breakdowns on the daily chart and the small 60 minute overlaid chart. The daily breakdown crashed through our support trend line and the 60 minute chart shows the breakdown below the previous low. The price is currently trading at resistance and the odds now favor lower prices.












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Saturday, December 19, 2009

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook


Gold's recovery was limited at 1142.9 after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA and fall from 1227.5 resumed and reached as low as 1097.4. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1079.4 next. On the upside, above 1142.9 resistance will argue that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger recovery. But after all, upside should be limited below 1227.5 and bring another fall to continue the correction.

In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Deeper pull back could now be seen to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption to another high above 1227.5.

In the long term picture, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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New Video: As the Dow Goes, So Goes the Country


The Dow has managed to claw back 50% of the losses that occurred in 2007 and 2008. The question now is, what’s ahead?

In our new video we share with you some of the ideas that we are looking at for this index. We believe we are at a very important crossroads and would not be surprised to see this market lose ground in the next 3 to 6 months. In the video we also show you exactly what we are looking at that will confirm a major top for this index.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.

Good trading,

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO
Stock Market Club

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Friday, December 18, 2009

New Video: Is the NASDAQ Running Out of Steam?


The NASDAQ index is now in thin air and appears to be waning in strength. In our new video we show exactly what we think will happen to this market.

Unlike the Dow and the S&P 500, the NASDAQ index has reached unsustainable levels. This is a dangerous area for this index to be in and we would not be surprised to see downward pressure coming into this market later this year or into 2010.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.


Good trading,

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO
Stock Market Club


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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Has the Dollar Bottomed Out?


We have made a number of videos on the dollar index and in our latest video we show you some of the aspects we outlined in our previous video that have come to pass.

The positive divergences on the MACD indicator which we discussed last time have kicked in and pushed the dollar index higher. Longer term major trend for the dollar index continues to be negative. In this short video you’ll see what the market is doing now and what we expect it to do in the future.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think of the video and the direction of the dollar.

Good trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO Stock Market Club


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It’s Official Silly Season for Gold


We are already in the “silly season” and what we mean by that is after December 15 most traders are not serious about the markets and they’re not committed to any large positions for the balance of the year.

We’ve had a number requests to do a video on gold, so here it is. As you will see in the video, gold has fallen back to an area that should provide support, however it will remain choppy and thinly traded for the balance of the year.

We strongly recommend that if you’re not in gold, to wait until we see more interest and activity coming into 2010.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know where you think Gold is headed.

Good trading,

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO Stock Market Club

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Thursday, December 10, 2009

Is The S&P 500 Getting Ready to Skyrocket or Collapse?


There’s no doubt about it, for the past four weeks the S&P 500 index has been trapped in a trading range. In our new video we show you a key level to watch this week. If this level is broken, it will be a game changer for this index.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to view and there is no registration requirement.

Enjoy the video and let us know what you think by leaving us a comment!

Good trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Stock Market Club


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Friday, December 4, 2009

Apple....A Major Market Leader Falters


One of the big success stories in 2009 was the rise of Apple. With its sexy new products like the iPhone, the iPod, and the iMac, Apple has seen its fortunes rise in dramatic fashion.

So what’s happening just before the holidays with Apple? Why are we seeing Apple stutter and falter? In our new video, we share with you what we believe is going to happen to one of our favorite markets.

We will also share with you the Apple trading results for 2009 using our “Trade Triangle” technology. The results have been good, in fact, very good. We think you’ll enjoy seeing how we made out in Apple.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration.

Good trading,

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Stock Market Club

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Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Welcome to our Launch of "Trend TV"

As a registered user of The Stock Market Club, you have been chosen to receive complimentary access to four educational trading videos that focus on Technical Analysis and Trend Trading:

VIDEO 1.) Basic Indicators to Analyze Markets

VIDEO 2.) Using Predicted High and Predicted Low to Trade Intraday

VIDEO 3.) Strategy Trading Using Next Day Predictive Highs and Lows

VIDEO 4.) Using "Differences" to Spot Shifts in Momentum

There is no charge as this is part of an educational program that we thought
you would find beneficial. Just Click Here for access to Trend TV.

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Tuesday, December 1, 2009

SP500 Update - Trend Change and Key Levels to Watch


Well here we are in the month of December and things can get pretty tricky this month. For this reason, we wanted to produce a video that we thought would be helpful to you during this time.

In our new video we show you the exact points that we’re looking at for a major trend change in the S&P 500. We also point out the exact number that will show an exit point, but not a major trend change, in this same index.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register and we look forward to your comments.

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO Stock Market Club

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