Monday, January 4, 2010

Markets Remain Overbought, is This the Near Term Top?


The S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Monday as it renewed December's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. However, closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1107.74 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends last month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1129.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1110.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1107.74.

The NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it renewed December's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends last month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1823.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1889.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1947.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1856.25. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1823.60.

The Dow closed sharply higher on Monday as it extends last year's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. However, closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 10442 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If the Dow extends today's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 11249 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 10604. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 11249. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 10,423. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10,263.

Gold closed higher due to weakness in the Dollar and strength in a number of other outside markets on Monday. Today's rally also led to a close above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1117.00 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1032.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1124.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1142.90. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1086.60. Second support is December's low crossing at 1075.20.

The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.21 signaling that a short term top has likely been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.52 are needed confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.77. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72. First support is today's low crossing at 77.57. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.52.

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