It’s been an interesting week with Spain being downgraded as Europe debt crisis widens. This has investors looking at the US dollar in a new light thinking that maybe it’s not that bad of an investment after all. This sent the US Dollar higher along with the price of gold so far this week.
The past 7 days we have seen both the US Dollar and Gold rise together which is not something that happens often. With financial crisis’s popping up around the world I think the US dollar and gold will continue to strengthen (with corrections along the way). I think it will take another 12-24 months before another wave if issues arise in the financial markets and until then we just continue to focus mainly on buying the dips and corrections with the occasional short play in the larger corrections.
SP500 – Daily Chart
On April 14th we saw an extreme level of selling which sent the broad market sharply lower. This sell off was followed by value buyers pushing the prices back up to new 2010 highs.
Well this week we have seen the same extreme selling volume and the question we all want to know is will there be buyers this time around?
ETF & Futures Trading Conclusion
Gold is in a bull market but it was setup for another round of selling but this Spain issue has been a pain. If we had another downward word move on gold to the $1115 – 1120 area it would have washed out the majority of gold bulls resetting it’s self up for a big rally.
The Europe debt crisis has thrown a twist into the picture helping boost the price of gold. Gold could still head lower washing out the weak positions but the picture is fuzzy. Silver did not react much to this news as it’s not really seen as the safe haven gold or the US Dollar are.
As for stock picks and the broad market, it looks and feels like we are about to start a correction. But this week we saw fear in the market again with the VIX and selling volume surging higher to levels which have triggered temporary bottoms in the past. The problem I see here is that some key price levels have been taken out, so the odds are pointing to lower prices in the near future. But Tuesdays panic selling has pushed the market into an oversold condition so we should see a drift upwards for 1-4 days before sellers get active again as they want to sell and short the market at premium prices.
In short, precious metals are not giving any clear price action to take advantage of yet, and the SP500 looks like it’s on its last legs before heading lower for a meaningful correction which should provide a short setup and then a nice long setup once it bottoms out.
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Thursday, April 29, 2010
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Weekend Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, Crude Oil & SP 500 Report
Last week the market slowly recovered from the recent sell off in stocks and commodities. So far the market is unfolding as we expected and with any luck there will be a surge of low risk setups across the market in the near future. Take a look at the charts below.
GLD – Gold Chart
GLD/Gold is trading at a key pivot point. This week there will most likely be a sizable move either up or down. Past chart analysis is pointing to lower prices which would complete an ABC trace pattern and this makes for a larger and stronger rally once prices to turn back up. Silver is trading in much the same situation. Gold and silver tend to move together with silver having more volatility than gold.
UNG – Natural Gas Chart
Natural Gas continues to try and bottom and posted some solid gains last Thursday & Friday with rising volume. But we have seen this pattern form over and over again in the past year so I am not excited yet. Once the base is formed and the trend starts up we will find low risk entry points for this commodity. I would look for shorting opportunities but natural gas is so oversold I feel the risk is higher than I prefer.
USO – Crude Oil Chart
Looks like the trend line break down flushed out a lot of weak positions as seen in the volume surge. Oil momentum is still down but we are now starting to look for a buy signal.
SPY – SP500 Chart
Equities recovered nicely from the previous week’s sharp sell off. We saw volume rise with higher prices which is a strong sign of the overall strength of the market. But it is important to note that the market sentiment has reached an extreme level with 53% of traders now being bullish on the market and only 17% being bearish. This extreme level is the same level reached just before the January correction earlier this year.
Equities and Commodity Trading Conclusion:
If recent historical prices repeat again then we are looking for a small move higher on Monday and then a couple days of weakness for both stocks and commodities later in the week. The market is very close to generating several low risk trading signals which is very exciting.
Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's "ETF, Stocks and Futures Trading Signals".
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GLD – Gold Chart
GLD/Gold is trading at a key pivot point. This week there will most likely be a sizable move either up or down. Past chart analysis is pointing to lower prices which would complete an ABC trace pattern and this makes for a larger and stronger rally once prices to turn back up. Silver is trading in much the same situation. Gold and silver tend to move together with silver having more volatility than gold.
UNG – Natural Gas Chart
Natural Gas continues to try and bottom and posted some solid gains last Thursday & Friday with rising volume. But we have seen this pattern form over and over again in the past year so I am not excited yet. Once the base is formed and the trend starts up we will find low risk entry points for this commodity. I would look for shorting opportunities but natural gas is so oversold I feel the risk is higher than I prefer.
USO – Crude Oil Chart
Looks like the trend line break down flushed out a lot of weak positions as seen in the volume surge. Oil momentum is still down but we are now starting to look for a buy signal.
SPY – SP500 Chart
Equities recovered nicely from the previous week’s sharp sell off. We saw volume rise with higher prices which is a strong sign of the overall strength of the market. But it is important to note that the market sentiment has reached an extreme level with 53% of traders now being bullish on the market and only 17% being bearish. This extreme level is the same level reached just before the January correction earlier this year.
Equities and Commodity Trading Conclusion:
If recent historical prices repeat again then we are looking for a small move higher on Monday and then a couple days of weakness for both stocks and commodities later in the week. The market is very close to generating several low risk trading signals which is very exciting.
Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's "ETF, Stocks and Futures Trading Signals".
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Friday, April 23, 2010
Q1: Gold vs. MarketClub's "World Commodity Portfolio"
We began Q1 with high hopes of keeping our winning streak alive, just as we had finished out the year on a very positive note with some strong gains in Q4 of 2009.
Q1 proved to be a challenging quarter for the "World Commodity Portfolio." Out of the six markets we track, we had winning positions in four markets (that's the good news) and losing positions in the other two. However, the big disappointment in Q1 was the gold market which produced our biggest quarterly loss of any market since we began tracking the "World Commodity Portfolio."
The main reason for this loss was the choppy, trend-less action in the gold market. In the eleven quarters we have been tracking gold, we have made money in eight of those quarters. This is not the time to abandon trading gold, rather it is a time to continue with our game plan and "Trade Triangle" approach that has been so successful for this portfolio. Furthermore we have never had back to back losing quarters in gold.
On the brighter side, the grain markets proved to be resilient and just the ticket as corn, wheat, and soybeans all put in positive performances. The only other market to put in a negative performance in Q1 was crude oil. All these gains were not enough to turn the tide and prevent our only second losing quarter in eleven quarters. While the loss was 6% based on margins of $50,000 (margin is needed to trade the "World Commodity Portfolio") it was still a loss and we hate losses.
As we have said before, diversification is the key, followed by a sound market-proven game plan. This is the one way to positively approach the markets with the odds stacked in your favor.
Q2 promises to be better and we expect to turn in a positive performance. This is based on the fact that the "World Commodity Portfolio" has never lost money two quarters in a row.
Even with this quarter's loss, the "World Commodity Portfolio" has produced, on average a 60% return per quarter. This number however was greatly skewed with the huge run up in crude oil in Q4 of '08. That being said, it just emphasizes the point that you have to be in it to win it.
The results we show in the "World Commodity Portfolio" are hypothetical and should not be taken as trades that were actually made in the marketplace. The results however, do show and resemble how you would have come out using MarketClub's "Trade Triangle" approach.
If you'd like to know more about this approach visit our website at MarketClub.com
Here's to a profitable Q2.
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
Add a Little More "Green" to Your Portfolio
What better day to add a little more "green" to your portfolio than Earth Day? Today we've asked Tate Dwinnell from Green Stocks Central to let us in on a few top "green" bullish stocks and then analyzed them with our "Trade Triangle" technology:
+75 STRI - STR Holdings - Solar Energy
+75 JASO - JA Solar Holdings - Solar Energy Products
+75 EMKR - Emcore - Solar & Fiber Optic Energy Conversion
These markets may be in some near term weakness, but are still in a long-term upward trend with intermediate and longer term trends pointing to a bull market, but short-term and intraday term and point to a bearish movement.
+90 PWER - Power-One - Power Conversion Management
Positive in long-term. Look for this market to remain firm. Strong Uptrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders
+100 POWR - PowerSecure - Energy & Smart Grid Solutions
Strong uptrend is in place and this market will likely remain in a long-term positive direction.
Tate also shared a few he believes are bottoming and broken:
Bottoming: FSLR, WFR, ZOLT, AMSC, ORA, ELON
Broken: CSIQ, AONE, CLNE, SQM
If you're a MarketClub member, you can analyze or add these to your portfolio to find out more, but if not, take advantage of our free Trend Analysis tool by clicking on any of the symbols above.
Did we leave any big movers out of our list? Let us know in our comments section or tell us about your "green" trades. Also, if you want to find out more about these and other green stocks, visit Green Stocks Central.com.
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of Renewable Energy ETF TAN
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New Video: Has Crude Oil Topped Out for the Year?
There is no doubt about it, crude oil has been very choppy. There are two camps involved in the crude oil market: one is bullish and the other is bearish. In this new short video, we show you which camp we are in and what we think is going to happen to the crude oil market for the balance of the year.
You will also get to see the key areas that we have recently approached and reversed back down from, and why this area is so important for the future of crude oil.
As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We welcome your thoughts and comments regarding this posting so please feel free to leave a comment.
Watch > Has Crude Oil Topped Out for the Year?
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010
New Video: Could Apple Be The Hottest Stock in The World!
It would seem that investors and traders cannot get enough of this stock. Yesterday it came as no surprise that Apple announced huge earnings, over three billion dollars, just about the same as Goldman Sachs. Now who could have predicted that just a few years ago?
So is this the beginning or the end Apple's record earnings?
In this very short video, we will show you what our targets are for Apple and how our "Trade Triangle" technology absolutely nailed this move. No matter what happens to this stock, our "Trade Triangle" technology has a winning edge that you can watch in our new video.
Enjoy the video and as always please feel free to leave a comment.
Watch > Could Apple Be The Hottest Stock in The World!
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New Video: Is the Next Big Step in Gold in Place?
In this new video, we show you how this market is setting itself up for a large move to the upside. We'll also point out that we don't think this is going to happen tomorrow. The video is about two minutes long and we think it will give you a great insight into the past and future of this particular market.
As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you are thinking about the direction of gold.
Watch > Is the Next Big Step in Gold in Place?
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Saturday, April 17, 2010
Dow and S&P Update Video....Can We Keep Going Higher Forever?
We owe trillions of dollars, but Crude oil is at $86 a barrel, the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ are making new highs almost everyday and unemployment is officially at 9.7%.
Everything is great! Happy days are here again... Right?
So is the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ all going to keep going higher forever? Or are the teachings of a dead mathematician going to reverse this juggernaut of a market?
In our new video we show you exactly what we mean and how the these indices could be very close to a very important tipping point.
This is without a doubt, one of the most important videos we have ever made and if you are concerned about your financial future, you don't want to miss it.
As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.
Just click here to watch Dow and S&P Update Video....Can We Keep Going Higher Forever?
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Everything is great! Happy days are here again... Right?
So is the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ all going to keep going higher forever? Or are the teachings of a dead mathematician going to reverse this juggernaut of a market?
In our new video we show you exactly what we mean and how the these indices could be very close to a very important tipping point.
This is without a doubt, one of the most important videos we have ever made and if you are concerned about your financial future, you don't want to miss it.
As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.
Just click here to watch Dow and S&P Update Video....Can We Keep Going Higher Forever?
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Thursday, April 15, 2010
Mid-Week Gold & Oil Trading Report
From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen....
In my last report I showed some cycles for the price of gold and how they were starting to roll over which would in turn put some selling pressure on both gold and silver this week.
Last Monday we saw gold and silver open higher but both were met with selling for the entire trading session. Since then gold and silver have been drifting higher on light volume with some occasional waves of selling on higher volume. It looks as though gold and silver have started a 5-14 day pause or pullback.
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
You can see from the chart below that the price of GLD looks to have bottomed after completing several typical price patterns from the breakdown we saw in December. The recent 4 months have provided a solid looking chart which should help gold take another run at the $1500 mark in the coming months.
USO Oil Fund
Crude Oil Futures – 120 minute chart of April 14, 2010
As the saying goes, buy on rumor (expectations) sell on the news. Well the price of oil moved up in the early morning anticipating the news (inventory numbers) at 10:30am ET would be in line with estimates. Then we saw profit taking started 2 hours before the number came out which is normal to see. But traders forecasted 1.4 million barrels as the number but the number came out at -2.2 million which was a big surprise for everyone. This sent oil sharply higher providing traders who caught the breaking news with an easy money trade. This type of action does not happen often so it’s a great little bonus for day traders.
Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, metals have had a nice run recently and the charts are pointing to a short breather before the next upward thrust.
Oil is holding up strong on the daily chart and with today’s extra boost in price, its looking like it may want to start a new leg higher if the momentum carries over for a few more days.
We saw the major indexes surge higher on rising volume indicating buyers are in a panic to buy in fear of missing more gains. There really is no reason to be buying at these prices other than trading off emotions in fear of missing more upside. The problem for these traders is that money is made by those who buy dips in the bull markets. Buying over extended rallies is a dangerous game, especially with the market as overbought as this one. The trend is our friend and if we do get a 1-2 day pullback in stocks we could take small position to buy on a dip.
Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trading Signals.
With his free DAILY newsletter, he gives away commentary and insight that most people pay for.
I’d highly recommend you sign up for his free newsletter right now, and you’ll automatically get the report, “What Your Broker Doesn’t Want You to Know” part of his old broker training. Super fun entertaining read. His daily newsletter has a wealth of information.
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In my last report I showed some cycles for the price of gold and how they were starting to roll over which would in turn put some selling pressure on both gold and silver this week.
Last Monday we saw gold and silver open higher but both were met with selling for the entire trading session. Since then gold and silver have been drifting higher on light volume with some occasional waves of selling on higher volume. It looks as though gold and silver have started a 5-14 day pause or pullback.
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
You can see from the chart below that the price of GLD looks to have bottomed after completing several typical price patterns from the breakdown we saw in December. The recent 4 months have provided a solid looking chart which should help gold take another run at the $1500 mark in the coming months.
USO Oil Fund
Crude Oil Futures – 120 minute chart of April 14, 2010
As the saying goes, buy on rumor (expectations) sell on the news. Well the price of oil moved up in the early morning anticipating the news (inventory numbers) at 10:30am ET would be in line with estimates. Then we saw profit taking started 2 hours before the number came out which is normal to see. But traders forecasted 1.4 million barrels as the number but the number came out at -2.2 million which was a big surprise for everyone. This sent oil sharply higher providing traders who caught the breaking news with an easy money trade. This type of action does not happen often so it’s a great little bonus for day traders.
Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, metals have had a nice run recently and the charts are pointing to a short breather before the next upward thrust.
Oil is holding up strong on the daily chart and with today’s extra boost in price, its looking like it may want to start a new leg higher if the momentum carries over for a few more days.
We saw the major indexes surge higher on rising volume indicating buyers are in a panic to buy in fear of missing more gains. There really is no reason to be buying at these prices other than trading off emotions in fear of missing more upside. The problem for these traders is that money is made by those who buy dips in the bull markets. Buying over extended rallies is a dangerous game, especially with the market as overbought as this one. The trend is our friend and if we do get a 1-2 day pullback in stocks we could take small position to buy on a dip.
Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trading Signals.
With his free DAILY newsletter, he gives away commentary and insight that most people pay for.
I’d highly recommend you sign up for his free newsletter right now, and you’ll automatically get the report, “What Your Broker Doesn’t Want You to Know” part of his old broker training. Super fun entertaining read. His daily newsletter has a wealth of information.
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010
New Video: Is Gold Ready to Challenge its All Time High?
The bull market inched higher during Sunday night trading, subsequently pushing gold to its best levels since December of last year. The sudden move down on Monday was a reminder that the 1160 area is an area of resistance for this precious metal.
In this new video on gold, I'll show you some of the indicators that you may want to look at in this market.
As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements, but please share your thoughts on gold leaving a comment.
Watch Is Gold Ready to Challenge its All Time High?
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Monday, April 12, 2010
New Video: Why Gold Will Not Make New Highs or Lows This Year
Gold has had some dramatic moves in the last eighteen months and we expect it will have some equally dramatic moves in the future, but not right now.
While we recognize that gold is one of the few commodity markets that people are really passionate about; the purpose of this article is not to take sides either with the gold bugs or those who reject the argument that gold is forever. Rather, we want to discuss my interpretation of the markets cycle.
After spot gold made an all time high against the dollar on December 2 at $1,226.37, gold has been in retreat mode. For the for the past several months gold has been in a broad trading range, seemingly unable to move one way or another. This process has created frustration from bulls and bears alike.
Here is the dirty little secret about the gold market. It can be a horrible investment and here's why:
Gold first started trading in the 80s, when gold opened up the public clamored to buy into the gold futures market and guess who sold it to them? Thats right it was the pros, the guys who made their living trading. As a result, gold hit an all time high of around $850 an ounce back then and it took almost 25 years for gold to move over that level, at least in dollar terms. We dont know what your timeline is, but 25 to 30 years is an awful long time to get even again.
So what is really happening in this market?
Everyone is aware of the problems in Europe with Greece, Portugal and a host of yet to be named countries. We all know that the huge amount of money being printed, coupled with the bank failures abroad contribute to the dollars declining value. These events, in conjunction with the American governments actions, also contribute to the devaluation of the dollar. The government claims that this is beneficial to exports, but the bottom line is that the purchasing power of the American dollar continues to erode in world markets.
Based on the declining value of world currency against gold you might ask- why isnt gold trading at $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce? What is wrong with this market? This is because a great deal of what goes into the gold market is psychological and reacts to cyclic trends driven by both psychological and economic factors.
So what does all this have to do with the price of gold now? It has everything to do with gold and nothing to do with gold.
Here is what I've been able to observe in the last several years in gold and seems to be holding true. It is something that you should pay attention to if you're interested in the next big move in the gold market.
Before gold can move higher it needs to create what we call an "energy field". The most recent energy fields in gold were between May 12, 2006 and September 20, 2007. This 17 month energy field saw gold prices oscillate between a broad trading range bound by $730.08 (upside) and $541.80 (downside). That energy field produced enough power to propel gold to the new high of $1,012.40 on March 17, 2008. This marked the first time gold exceeded, in dollar terms, the highs set in the early 80s mentioned earlier.
The energy fields we have observed for gold are taking somewhere between 17 and 18 months to complete. If the energy field holds, then the December 3rd 2009 high of $1,226.37 should remain in place for quite some time. If the same cycle remains true then the recent lows that we witnessed, at $1,050, should also remain intact as they represent the 15 to 16 month cycle low.
With the lows in place the next question becomes when is the next cyclical high in gold? Based on the existing cycle, we can expect the next major gold high in 2011.
To summarize: We expect gold to be locked in a broad trading range for the next 12 months bounded by the December 09 highs of 1,226.37 and the lows of $1,050.00. If the gold cycle holds true, we expect that gold tops the $1,226.37 marker by April or May of 2011.
On the on the upside we will also be looking for gold to make a nature cyclic high in October or November of 2011. It's impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy; however when we look at the cycles in gold this reads as a pretty good bet.
No matter what happens we expect gold will offer some great trading opportunities that investors and traders should be able to take advantage of.
As we always discuss, in trading one should approach gold or any other market with a game plan and proper money management stops. The key to success in this decade will be an investors willingness to move in and out of asset classes such as gold and be well diversified into more than one asset class. That way you wont be left holding the bag for the next 25 years. Our World Commodity Portfolio is a good example of this approach and one we believe will serve investors well in the coming years.
Watch > "Why Gold Will Not Make New Highs or Lows This Year"
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Thursday, April 8, 2010
Technical Setups on Gold, Silver, Oil & Natural Gas ETF’s
This week has been playing out as expected with prices grinding their way higher and lots of sharp intraday sell offs and rallies which is indicative of a market getting toppy.
Seems like the masses feel as though they are getting left behind which is why we are starting to see the panic buying in the market (new money buying at these lofty overbought prices).
Each time there is a new intraday or daily high on the major indexes there is a renewed bullishness created as breakout traders and novice traders buy into the market hoping for the next surge in price. It is these volume surges of new money entering the market which the big guys (smart money) are selling into. You can see it clear as day light on the intraday charts as new money gets sucked into the market new high and then 2 minutes later larger waves of selling hit the bids. I did explain and show a chart of how this looks to members of the FuturesTradingSignals.com today.
We have some very exciting times ahead and it’s just a matter of letting the market unfold over time as we take advantage of these carefully measured low risk setups.
On to the charts....
GLD ETF Trading – Gold Exchange Trading Fund
You can see how this chart has evolved from pattern to pattern as it bottomed over time.
Today we had a breakout and I expect to see a pullback which is normal when prices gap up and breakout of a pattern. An entry point would be considered on a pullback if the proper criteria are met.
SLV ETF Trading – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver has always been much more volatile than gold which is why the pullback early this year was so strong and why the recent rally has also covered so much ground. As you can see silver has broke out above resistance but is now looking overbought. A pullback in precious metals is expected, or a pause at least.
USO Crude Oil Fund
Oil has made a nice move higher the past week but I feel it will pullback also in the coming days for a breather. There are a couple sizable gaps to fill all the way back down to $40.50.
UNG Natural Gas Fund
This natural gas chart looks very interesting. In the chart I am comparing the 2009 low to today’s price action.
From looking at the chart, natural gas is way oversold and in dire need of a relief rally. As you can see the sharp rallies which occurred just before both the 2009 and the current possible bottom look identical. This type of price action is very common to see.
Let me explain: When an investment is this over sold, meaning it has sold lower for weeks if not months, then there is a large growing number of traders looking to pick a bottom. Once these traders see prices start to move higher they all jump in thinking its “The Bottom”. Some times it is but more times than not it’s just a suckers rally.
General rule is, if everyone can see it, then its most likely not going to happen.. this is also part of the reason the major indexes keep going up. It looks like a great short and a tone of traders are in cash waiting to take advantage of the drop. But the market will keep pushing higher until fear its not going to pullback. That’s when the new money buys back in fueling the GRIND higher.
Anyways, so after all the bottom pickers jump on the train and there are not any more buyers and the price tends to drift lower scaring these traders back out of the position. Eventually a new low is made and everyone is shaken out of the investment. The crazy part is that just as they get out, the price usually turns around and does exactly what they new was going to happen –Go Up.
Most traders have the direction correct, it’s just their timing is off. My general rule is when I see something I wait another bar, sometimes I keep saying that to my self after each new bar until I am confident in the predicted move or price I can get into the position at.
Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, the bull market continues to grind its way higher. Unfortunately we cannot do much until there is some type of correction because buying way up here after a 2 month rally is outside of my comfort zone.
I foresee a 3-5% correction starting any day now so I am keeping my gunpowder dry.
Just click here to check out Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trading Signals Newsletter.
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Seems like the masses feel as though they are getting left behind which is why we are starting to see the panic buying in the market (new money buying at these lofty overbought prices).
Each time there is a new intraday or daily high on the major indexes there is a renewed bullishness created as breakout traders and novice traders buy into the market hoping for the next surge in price. It is these volume surges of new money entering the market which the big guys (smart money) are selling into. You can see it clear as day light on the intraday charts as new money gets sucked into the market new high and then 2 minutes later larger waves of selling hit the bids. I did explain and show a chart of how this looks to members of the FuturesTradingSignals.com today.
We have some very exciting times ahead and it’s just a matter of letting the market unfold over time as we take advantage of these carefully measured low risk setups.
On to the charts....
GLD ETF Trading – Gold Exchange Trading Fund
You can see how this chart has evolved from pattern to pattern as it bottomed over time.
Today we had a breakout and I expect to see a pullback which is normal when prices gap up and breakout of a pattern. An entry point would be considered on a pullback if the proper criteria are met.
SLV ETF Trading – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver has always been much more volatile than gold which is why the pullback early this year was so strong and why the recent rally has also covered so much ground. As you can see silver has broke out above resistance but is now looking overbought. A pullback in precious metals is expected, or a pause at least.
USO Crude Oil Fund
Oil has made a nice move higher the past week but I feel it will pullback also in the coming days for a breather. There are a couple sizable gaps to fill all the way back down to $40.50.
UNG Natural Gas Fund
This natural gas chart looks very interesting. In the chart I am comparing the 2009 low to today’s price action.
From looking at the chart, natural gas is way oversold and in dire need of a relief rally. As you can see the sharp rallies which occurred just before both the 2009 and the current possible bottom look identical. This type of price action is very common to see.
Let me explain: When an investment is this over sold, meaning it has sold lower for weeks if not months, then there is a large growing number of traders looking to pick a bottom. Once these traders see prices start to move higher they all jump in thinking its “The Bottom”. Some times it is but more times than not it’s just a suckers rally.
General rule is, if everyone can see it, then its most likely not going to happen.. this is also part of the reason the major indexes keep going up. It looks like a great short and a tone of traders are in cash waiting to take advantage of the drop. But the market will keep pushing higher until fear its not going to pullback. That’s when the new money buys back in fueling the GRIND higher.
Anyways, so after all the bottom pickers jump on the train and there are not any more buyers and the price tends to drift lower scaring these traders back out of the position. Eventually a new low is made and everyone is shaken out of the investment. The crazy part is that just as they get out, the price usually turns around and does exactly what they new was going to happen –Go Up.
Most traders have the direction correct, it’s just their timing is off. My general rule is when I see something I wait another bar, sometimes I keep saying that to my self after each new bar until I am confident in the predicted move or price I can get into the position at.
Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, the bull market continues to grind its way higher. Unfortunately we cannot do much until there is some type of correction because buying way up here after a 2 month rally is outside of my comfort zone.
I foresee a 3-5% correction starting any day now so I am keeping my gunpowder dry.
Just click here to check out Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trading Signals Newsletter.
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Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Just Announced Special Trial Member Webinar, Adam Hewison Answers Trial Members Questions LIVE
A few days ago we told you about the special MarketClub Trial that's running, and today we called my inside contact and told him to give MORE to my members who
are on the MarketClub Trial...here's his response:
" I've gotten your voice mails and emails and I was able to talk Adam into doing a TRIAL MEMBERS ONLY webinar where he'll answer questions, and show them exactly how
he uses MarketClub to find and tradeprofitable moves!
P.S. We're closing down the 2 week trial on the 9th as we've gotten a lot more people then expected." If you haven't started your trial yet, please do so ASAP, as I know the webinar software they use can only support 1k people at a time...so don't miss it!
The date of the special webinar hasn't been released to the public yet, as it's just for trial members but we know it's got to be pretty soon and we don't want you to miss the chance to talk directly with Adam!
Just click here to get your trial going now, for no cost, and be sure and attend the webinar...I will!
Just Announced Special Trial Member Webinar, Adam Hewison Answers Trial Members Questions LIVE
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