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Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Can the Greek Government Survive? We Doubt It

The Greek Socialist party, led by Prime Minister George Papandreou, once again threw the world of finance and trading into turmoil. The news that Greece was going to hold a referendum in January, to vote whether or not to stay in the euro or face chaos, was for sure a political move.

Here’s the question I’m asking today: If you’re a Greek citizen and the government wants to take all your benefits away, which way would you vote? My guess is they just say to heck with it, and say they are not paying back the money they owe.

I think that Greece has already psychologically defaulted and that will lead to further contagion. Italy is the next one in line, which presents a much bigger problem for the world.
We had the month of October producing one of the biggest monthly gains ever in the equity markets for that time frame. And we start out on November 1st getting beaten over the head by this little country in Europe.

I’m concerned if you have a company like MF Global declares bankruptcy based on sovereign debt, how many other players are there hanging on by their fingernails? In the scope of things, MF Global was not a huge player, yet no one knew about their exposure. How many other players are out there that have sovereign debt problem that no one knows about?

As stated for the past week or so, the longer term trends in the equity markets are still negative based on our monthly Trade Triangles. Same trends hold true for crude oil and the CRB commodity index. The only markets that we see in positive modes at the moment, are gold and the dollar index.

Now let’s go to todays video and take a look at the charts of the six markets we cover publicly.

Adam Hewison

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