Monday, February 27, 2012

What To Expect in the Final Week Of February for Precious Metals, Gold Stocks & Dollar

This morning we are seeing the US Dollar index move higher retesting a short term breakdown resistance level. What this means is that the dollar fell below support and is not slowing drifting back up to test the breakdown level. As we all know once a support level is broken it then becomes resistance. So if that holds true with the current move in the dollar we should see stocks and commodities find a short term bottom and continue higher today or tomorrow from the looks of things.


Gold has been pulling back the past couple trading session on light volume which healthy price action. It has done the opposite of what the dollar did above. Gold broke through a key resistance level and is slowly drifting back down to test the breakout level to see if it is support. If so then gold should continue higher in the coming days.



Both silver and gold miner stocks are lagging the price of gold. They have yet to break through their key resistance levels. That being said it could happen an day now as they have both been flirting with that level for a couple trading sessions now.


Crude oil continues to hold up strong and is headed straight for its key resistance levels without any real pullback. Chasing price action like this is not something do often because risk reward is not in your favor. I am staying on the sidelines for oil until I see a setup that has more potential and less risk.


The equities market remains in a strong uptrend at this time. I do feel a 1-3 weeks pause/pullback could take place at any time but in the grand scheme of things we could be only half way through this runaway stock market rally as noted in the video.


The equities market is going to gap down this morning which is typical in a bull market. Remember. in an uptrend the stock market tends to gap lower at the open and close higher into the close. And it’s the opposite in a down trend with stocks gapping higher and sell off through the trading session.

Watch Chris Vermeulens detailed video analysis for this week at The Gold and Oil Guy Videos

Chris Vermeulen
The Gold and Oil Guy .Com

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Understanding The Basic Language of Option Trading

The peculiar vocabulary and concepts inhabiting an options trader’s thoughts are often the source of confusion to visitors to my world. I have often pondered that learning to understand options is a lot like learning a foreign language. When you arrive in the country whose language you seek to learn, you need a functional vocabulary immediately.

In order to be able to understand my world, I thought it would be helpful to discuss a bit of my language since it is helpful to grasp a few basics. I want to touch on some of the basic concepts necessary to form the basis for a functional language we can use to communicate concepts underlying a rational (hopefully) thought process leading to trade design and management.

In ruminations to come we will return to these fundamental concepts and begin to understand their function in the dynamic world of an options trader. The nuances of their specific structures are beyond the scope of this blog.  We will return to consider these factors in virtually every trade because they re-appear each and every day in my world. For today, just shake their hands and remember their names.
One point not often discussed is the way in which options are priced. The quoted option price is in reality the sum of two separate components. These are referred to as the intrinsic and the extrinsic portions of the premium. I think of these as steak and sizzle respectively.

As I type, AAPL has closed at around $395. The January 390 call has 41 days to expiration and could have been bought for $18.90. Of this sum, $5 represents intrinsic premium and $13.90 represents extrinsic or time premium.

This is an important distinction because it is the extrinsic premium which is subject to time decay and change due to variations in implied volatility. We will get to a discussion of implied volatility in next week’s missive.

The intrinsic premium is subject to change solely due to changes in the price of the underlying security. There is no sizzle in the intrinsic premium; you can buy the option today, exercise it to buy stock, sell the stock, and pocket the $5. Of course, your trading career will not last long with that sort of trade, but my point is that the intrinsic premium has an easily calculable true value.

The situation with the extrinsic premium is quite different. The value changes not only with time to expiration but also with the constantly changing implied volatility. It is for this reason that an option trader must be very careful with this extrinsic component. Depending on the specific option under consideration, extrinsic premium may represent all, a portion, or a trivial amount of the entirety of the option premium.

Another important concept is that of the “moneyness” of an option. An individual option can be classified in one of three categories of “moneyness:”
  • At the money
  • In the money
  • Out of the money
At the money options by definition consist of a single strike price. Both in the money and out of the money strikes usually contain several individual strikes within their groups.

In our example of AAPL, the at the money strike is the 395 strike. The in the money strikes consist of all calls with strike prices below 395 and all puts with strike prices above 395. The out of the money strikes consist of all calls above the 395 strike and all puts below the 395 strike.

Obviously since the price of the underlying defines the category into which an option is classified, the category into which an individual option fits is fluid and changes dynamically with the price of the underlying asset.

The reason for taking the time to discuss in some detail this classification of “moneyness” is that there are important reliable characteristics of each type of option.

At the money options characteristically contain the absolute greatest dollar amount of extrinsic premium. In the money options have the least amount of extrinsic premium. Out of the money options consist entirely of extrinsic premium, and therefore only contain sizzle......no steak can be found there.

Because the functional characteristics of these three categories of options differ, it is a basic strategy to combine options of different “moneyness” to achieve trades with the best probability of success and the highest risk/reward scenarios.

For example, buying an in the money call and selling an at the money call gives birth to a call debit spread, a high probability trade structure for the trader who is bullish in the underlying.

Next week we will cover the stealth concept of option trading, implied volatility. Failure to understand the impact of this variable is the most common cause of beginning options traders’ failure to succeed.

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The Long Term Fundamental Case for Gold

A quick glance at most of the headlines over the weekend and the primary focus seemed to be either calling a near term top in domestic equity indices or a focus on the Greek debt situation. Why is anyone even paying attention to what is going on over there? Until the ISDA declares a default where the underlying Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are triggered, it is all just noise.

The ECB has broken the rule of law by placing itself as the senior creditor ahead of private creditors, the Greek government is trying to pass retroactive legislation to trap private sector creditors holding out of the PSI, and the leader of Greece was not even elected by the people of Greece – how much more manipulation and insanity do we need to monitor?

Similar to the price action since 2008, central banks around the world control everything from financial markets to the ascent of political leaders. These same political leaders help central bankers and planners control policy and decision making at the highest government levels in Europe and around the world. It would seem that the United States should change the motto from “We the People” to “We the Bankers.”

However, there is one particular asset class that even the central bankers have a hard time controlling. While they can impact short term price action through direct currency manipulation initiatives, in the longer-term gold is likely to move in only one direction, higher.

The price action on Tuesday reminded market participants that actions such as the Greek bailout come at a cost. Quantitative easing and/or printing money (depending on what one wishes to call the practice of producing fiat currency out of thin air) has a direct impact on the price of gold.

Many financial pundits argue that gold has no utility, but what they fail to recognize is that gold is the senior currency to all other fiat currencies. Silver is also a form of currency and is senior to all other fiat currencies as well. While one can draw the utility of gold into question, the idea that gold is the senior most currency to all other fiat currencies is not new.

The Constitution of the United States of America, which is over 200 years old, refers to gold and silver as forms of payment. Looking back thousands of years the Romans used gold coins as a form of currency. The idea that gold and silver are currencies is certainly not a grandiose thought or a stretch of historical concept. Trying to depict gold as a worthless asset depends on your view and consideration of fiat currency.

There are those that would argue that the Federal Reserve of the United States is not actively manipulating economic conditions domestically or abroad. For those that view gold as a poor investment or hedge against currency devaluation need to consider the charts illustrated below. The chart below was produced by Thomas Gresham of Gresham’s Law.

Total Asset Growth of the Federal Reserve System – 1915 – 2012

It is rather obvious by looking at this chart that the Federal Reserve has actively sought to enter domestic and foreign financial markets. The surge in balance sheet assets serves to prove how far the Federal Reserve Bank is willing to go to maintain markets which seemingly are only allowed to move higher over time.

This chart is bearish for nearly any form of paper backed assets. The above referenced chart is long term bearish for the Dollar and Treasuries and long term bullish for physical gold and silver. As the Federal Reserve continues to debase the U.S. Dollar in concert with other central banks’ monetary easing programs, gold and silver prices over time are destined to move higher in virtually every form of fiat currency.

During the same time frame that the Federal Reserve has seen its balance sheet grow exponentially, the rapid rise of M2 money supply is staggering. The long term chart of M2 is compared to gold futures in the charts presented below.

M2 Money Stock


Gold Futures Monthly Chart

It is rather obvious what has happened to the price of gold as the M2 money supply has grown. The idea that the Federal Reserve has not already destroyed a significant amount of the purchasing power of the Dollar can easily be refuted by the two charts shown above.

In the short term, gold and silver could suffer from a pullback, but in the intermediate to longer term it is unlikely that we have seen the highs of this bull market for either metal. As long as central banks around the world continue to print money and expand their balance sheets gold and silver will remain in a long term bull market. The daily chart of gold futures is presented below.

Gold Futures Daily Chart

As can be seen above, it is not out of the question that we could see gold pullback to test one of the key moving averages in coming days/weeks. However, I expect the key support area to hold in the event of a sharp selloff. Ultimately, I expect to see a breakout over the resistance zone in the days/weeks ahead. However, I would not be surprised to see gold consolidate or work marginally lower from current prices before breaking out to the upside. Right now the primary threat in this fledgling gold rally is a short term spike higher in the U.S. Dollar. The primary catalyst which could drive a flight to the Dollar involves the sovereign debt situation in Greece and the Eurozone as a whole.

While the short term price action may be bearish, the intermediate to longer term time frames are quite bullish for metals as central banks will continue to race to debase their currencies. Quantitative easing in the U.S. and around the world will become pervasive and gold prices could potentially soar in value. The data from the Federal Reserve Bank itself suggests that they are indeed increasing the money supply. As time has passed, the money supply and gold have seemingly grown in lockstep with one another. Surely inquiring minds do not consider this mutual relationship between gold and the money supply to be purely coincidental.

As further evidence that the Federal Reserve continues to use quantitative easing to manipulate asset prices through direct entry into financial markets, a chart of the velocity of M2 clearly depicts that the velocity of money is declining. I am not an expert regarding macroeconomic data, but if the velocity of money is declining to 1960’s levels would it be a stretch to say that we may be going through a period of stagflation? The chart below illustrates the Velocity of M2 Money Stock courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.

Velocity of M2 Money Stock

For those unfamiliar with the term velocity of money, it is simply the rate of turnover in the overall money supply. The velocity of M2 is expressed as the number of times that a Dollar is used to purchase final goods or services which are included in the total gross domestic product.

Conclusion
The short term technical picture in gold is a bit suspect due to overhead resistance and recent U.S. Dollar strength. However, the longer term macro factors that impact the value of the U.S. Dollar and precious metals are all telling us the same thing.

As time wears on and central banks do even more to prop up the broader economy and failing financial institutions, it is without question in my mind that gold and silver will both benefit handsomely from these decisions being made by central bankers from around the world.

Ultimately, I am very bullish of gold and silver in the intermediate to longer-term, but in the immediate short term frame gold could consolidate or pullback before breaking out to the upside.


Thursday, February 16, 2012

Did the SP 500 Just Peak at 1356?

This is somewhat of a things that make you go hmmmmmm exercise, but lets examine this 1356 number for a second here. The SP 500 hit 1356 today and put on the brakes and reversed down to 1341 in a possible terminal top move.

1356 actually has fibonacci relationships. If we take the last major rally which was from the Summer 2010 lows:

1010-1370 (May 2011 highs)

360 points

.786 of 360 is 283 points

Take 283, add it to the 1074 October lows…. you got 1356/57

That would mean this last rally so far is .786 of the 2010-11 rally.

Also, 1356/57 is right in my 1352-1376 pivot ranges for a Major 3 top as well

Evidence is mounting for a good sized correction here is my point.

Possible count, though many will argue not valid:

Wave 1- 666 to 1221- 555 points
Wave 2- 1221-1010- 211 points, .38% of 1
Wave 3- 1010-1370 360 points, .61% of 1
Wave 4- 1370-1074- 296 points… 38% of 1-3 (A bit more than 38%)
Wave 5- 1074-1356 .786 of 3

Only rule violation here is Wave 4 would have delved into wave 1, which is a no-no for most E wavers. However, I would argue that 4 often does delve into the wave 1 arena and legitimately, but that is a topic for another article.

Nonetheless… pay attention to the fibonacci relationships… if anything they may be warning of 1356 as an interim high and top with correction starting.  This would either be a 4th wave down with the 5th and final wave up left… or we topped at 1356. A drop below 1337 will confirm a correction at minimum to 1310 and then 1295 ranges.

Just food for thought…...we have been lightening our positions and raising stops at my ATP trading service.  If you’d like to have regular updates on the SP 500, Gold and Silver so you can benefit from major pivots ahead of the crowd, check us out at Market Trend Forecast for a coupon offer.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Two Short Term Scenarios for the S&P 500 Index

For the first time since the last week of December of 2011, the S&P 500 Index closed lower on the weekly chart. Recently I have been discussing the overbought nature of stocks based on a variety of indicators. However, the real question that should be asked is whether last week was just a short term event or if we see sustained selling in coming weeks.

The issues occurring in Greece spooked the markets somewhat on Friday as Eurozone fears continue to permeate in the mindset of traders. The U.S. Dollar Index is the real driver regarding risk in the near and intermediate term future. If the Dollar is strong, market participants will likely reduce risk. However a weakening Dollar will be a risk-on type of trading event which could lead to an extended rally in equities, precious metals, and oil.

Friday marked an important day for the U.S. Dollar Index futures as for the first time in several weeks the Dollar held higher prices into a daily close. The U.S. Dollar appears to have carved out a daily swing low on the daily chart from Friday. Furthermore, the potential for a weekly swing low at the end of this week remains quite possible. The chart below illustrates how the 100 period simple moving average has offered short term support for the past few weeks.

U.S. Dollar Index Futures Daily Chart


I would also point out that the MACD is starting to converge which is a bullish signal and the full stochastics are also demonstrating a cross on the daily time frame. As long as the 100 period moving average holds price, a rally is likely in the U.S. Dollar Index in coming weeks.

Should that rally play out, it will likely push risk assets lower. My primary target for the S&P 500 would be around the 1,300 – 1,310 price range if the selloff transpires. It is important to note that  headlines coming out of Europe could derail this analysis in short order.

Assuming that a selloff in the S&P 500 occurs it will present a difficult trading environment for market participants. Market participants are going to be in a tough position around the 1,300 price level. A rally from 1,300 could  serve to test the 2011 highs. In contrast, a confirmed breakdown of the 1,300 price level could initiate a more significant selloff towards the 1,250 area.

Should price move towards the 1,300 price level the bulls and bears will be battling it out for intermediate control of price action. This is my preferred scenario for the short term time frame, but I would only give it about a 60% chance of success at this point in time. We simply need more time to see how price action behaves the first few session of the forthcoming week.

S&P 500 Index Bearish Scenario


The alternate scenario which has about a 40% chance of success would be a sharp rally higher which likely would be produced by news coming out of Greece and/or the Eurozone that pushes the Euro higher. Right now risk is high due to the sensitivity of price to headline risk. With that said, the bullish alternative scenario is shown below.

S&P 500 Index Bullish Scenario

At this point we just do not have enough price information to give us clarity regarding the most probable outcome. The price action in the Euro is going to drive price action for the S&P 500 and other risk assets in weeks ahead.

Anything is possible in the short term, but I have to give a slight edge to the bears simply based on the price action Friday and the fact that almost every indicator I follow is screaming that the equities market is severely overbought. The price action this week should be telling. Headline risk is excruciatingly high, trade safely in the coming week!


Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Was Friday’s Price Action in Gold Signaling a Top in the S&P 500?

Friday morning traders and market participants awaited the key January employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reaction to the supposedly wonderful report was a surge in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures contracts as well as several other key equity index futures.

The overall tenor among the financial punditry was predictable as wildly bullish predictions permeated the morning session on CNBC and in the financial blogosphere. However, after the report had been out for several hours notable independent voices such as Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner came out with information that suggested the numbers were an apparition of manipulated statistics.

I am not going to spend a great deal of time discussing the report, but the reaction to the news was decisively bullish on Friday. The question I want to know is whether Friday was a blow off top? In the recent past the S&P 500 has seen several key inflection points and intermediate-term tops form on non-farm payroll monthly announcements.

I follow a variety of indicators to help me decipher more accurately when the market is getting overbought or oversold. For nearly two weeks the market has been extremely overbought, but now we are reaching truly astonishing levels. The following charts represent just a few signals that the market is due for a pullback and a top is likely approaching.

Percentage of NYSE Stocks Trading Above Their 50 Period Moving Average

The chart above clearly illustrates that as of Friday’s closing bell (02/03) over 89% of stocks were trading above their 50 period moving averages. Consequently that reading is one of the highest levels that we have seen in the past 3 years. In addition, over 73% of stocks that trade on the NYSE are currently priced above their longer term 200 period moving averages. Another extremely overbought signal.

S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Weekly Chart

The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is another great tool for measuring the overall position of the S&P 500. It is without question that the longer term time frame is reaching the highest level of overbought conditions in the past 3 years.

McClellan Oscillator Divergence with S&P 500 Price Action

The two charts shown above present an interesting situation regarding the divergence in the McClellan Oscillator and the price action in the S&P 500. The most recent example of this type of divergence occurred in October of 2011 and prices immediately reversed to the upside after several months of selling pressure. In fact, this correlation between reversals in the S&P 500 and divergences in the McClellan Oscillator works relatively well historically.

Clearly there are bullish voices arguing for the 2011 S&P 500 Index high of 1,370.58 to be taken out to the upside in the near future. Additionally, several market technicians in the blogospere have been pointing to the key resistance range between 1,350 and 1,370 on the S&P 500 as a likely price target. Obviously if those price levels are met strong resistance is likely to present itself. However, as a contrarian trader I have found that the more obvious price levels are the more likely it is that they either will not be tested or they will not offer significant resistance.

It is obvious that Chairman Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have embarked on a massive fiat currency printing campaign which has helped buoy risk assets to the upside. Through a combination of reducing interest rates on safety haven investments like Treasury’s and CD’s, the Federal Reserve has forced conservative investors and those living on a fixed income into riskier assets in search of yield.

This process helps elevate stock prices and creates the desired outcome for the Federal Reserve which involves the perception by average individuals that they are wealthier. The Fed calls this the “wealth effect” and they seem poised to insure that U.S. financial markets continue to ride upon a see of cheap money and liquidity.

Ultimately the Federal Reserve’s most recent announcements have served to help flatten the short end of the yield curve further while providing a launching pad for equities and precious metals. However, issues persisting in Europe could have an adverse impact on the short to intermediate term price action of the U.S. Dollar.

Right now everywhere I look I hear market prognosticators commenting on how hated the U.S. Dollar is and how Chairman Bernanke will not allow the Dollar to appreciate markedly in order to protect U.S. exports and financial markets. I think that the Dollar has the potential to rally in the short to intermediate term. Right now the U.S. Dollar Index appears to be trying to form a bottom.

U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart

Obviously there is good reason to believe that the U.S. Dollar Index could reverse to the upside here. Whether it would have the strength to take out recent highs is unclear, but a correction to the upside not only seems unexpected by most market participants, but it seems plausible based on the weekend news coming out of Greece.

Monday morning the Greek government is set to determine if they will agree to the demands of the Troika in exchange for the next tranche of bailout funds. If the Greek government and the Troika do not come to an agreement, the Euro could sell-off violently.

Additionally there are already concerns about the next LTRO offering from the European Central Bank. The measure is to help provide European banks with additional liquidity, but there are growing concerns that the size and scope of the LTRO could have a dramatic impact on the Euro’s valuation against other currencies. Time will tell, but there are certainly catalysts which could help drive the U.S. Dollar higher.

Another potential indicator that the Dollar could see higher prices in coming days was the largely unnoticed bearish price action on Friday of precious metals. Both gold and silver have been on a tear higher over the past several weeks. Both precious metals have surged since the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain near zero on the short end of the curve through 2014.

However, on Friday gold and silver were both under extreme selling pressure. The move did not get much attention by the financial media. The price action in gold and silver on Friday could be another indication that the U.S. Dollar is set to rally. The daily chart of gold is shown below.

Gold Futures Daily Chart

Obviously the reversal on Friday in gold futures was sharp. The move represented nearly a 2% decline for the session on the price of gold. However, as long term readers know I am a gold bull. I just do not see how gold and silver do not rally in the intermediate to longer term based on the insane levels of fiat currency printing going on at all of the major central banks around the world. The macro case for gold is very strong, but the short term time frame could reveal a brief pullback.

At this point, I suspect a pullback will present a good buying opportunity for those that are patient. However, I think it is critical to point out that this move in gold on Friday could be a signal that the U.S. Dollar is going to find some short to intermediate term strength. If the Dollar does start to push higher, it will likely put downward pressure on risk assets like equities and oil.

While Friday’s price action may not mark a top, nearly every indicator that I follow is screaming that stocks are overbought across all time frames. Pair that with the Greece uncertainty and LTRO considerations and suddenly the Dollar starts to look a bit more attractive. Ultimately I am not going to try to pick a top, but the evidence suggests that it might not be too many days/weeks away.