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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Carley Garner's "Higher Probability Commodity Trading"

Carley Garner's new book "Higher Probability Commodity Trading" takes readers on an unprecedented journey through the treacherous commodity markets; shedding light on topics rarely discussed in trading literature from a unique perspective, with the intention of increasing the odds of success for market participants.

In its quest to guide traders through the process of commodity market analysis, strategy development, and risk management, Higher Probability Commodity Trading discusses several alternative market concepts and unconventional views such as option selling tactics, hedging futures positions with options, and combining the practice of fundamental, technical, seasonal, and sentiment analysis to gauge market price changes.

Carley, is a frequent contributor of commodity market analysis to CNBC's Mad Money TV show hosted by Jim Cramer. She has also been a futures and options broker, where for over a decade she has had a front row seat to the victories and defeats the commodity markets deal to traders.

Garner has a knack for portraying complex commodity trading concepts, in an easy-to-read and entertaining format. Readers of Higher Probability Commodity Trading are sure to walk away with a better understanding of the futures and options market, but more importantly with the benefit of years of market lessons learned without the expensive lessons.

Get Higher Probability Commodity Trading on Amazon....Get it Here!



Tuesday, September 13, 2016

The Next Big Short



The "Next Big Short" is a collection of looming market risks from The Heisenberg. This 37 page special report will show you the risks in the markets. How to explain The Heisenberg?

Essentially, it's a collective brain trust of skilled traders willing to discuss markets with the freedom of anonymity. You can enjoy Heisenberg's lively market commentary in the TheoDark Report section of their public blog.

Get the "Next Big Short " free special report....Just Click Here

For more backstory, here's Heisenberg in his own words: Heisenberg spent a long time in college. Probably too long. Be that as it may, the experience afforded him extensive cross disciplinary experience. From Aristotle to Kant to Wittgenstein, from Hobbes to Locke to Rousseau, from plain vanilla equities to FX to CDS, Heisenberg is right at home. With degrees in political science and business, as well as extensive post graduate work in political science and public administration, Heisenberg is uniquely positioned to analyze markets from a holistic perspective. He also has a sense of humor, which allows him to fully appreciate how entertaining it is to talk about himself in the third person.

Heisenberg has traded pretty much everything at one time or another and if he hasn’t traded it, he’s studied it enough to drive himself just as crazy as if he had. He doesn’t sleep much because the terminal doesn’t sleep and neither, generally speaking, do currency markets.

Heisenberg once took the law school admission test (LSAT) for fun with no intention of actually going to law school. He then took it again to try and beat his first score. He paid for the second test with profits he made from long calls on a Brazilian water utility ADR that he sold to close from the first iPhone (the 2.5G version that no one remembers) in the middle of a graduate political science class. His score on the verbal section of the graduate management admission test (GMAT) was near perfect. As was his score on the analytical writing portion. Don’t ask about the math section. He got bored after two hours and didn’t care about using the Pythagorean theorem to determine how long Timmy’s shadow was when he was standing next to a 90 degree flag pole.

Professionally, Heisenberg has worked in Manhattan and many other locales and has years of experience generating and monetizing financial web content. He’s continually amused at those who make it seem hard. You provide quality content for users on a consistent basis. Everything else falls into place. Build it, and they will come.

Get the "Next Big Short " free special report....Just Click Here


See you in the markets putting the Next Big Short to work,
The Stock Market Club


Friday, September 9, 2016

Weekend Edition: You’re Not Legally Entitled to Social Security

By Justin Spittler

Tom Dyson, co-founder of Palm Beach Research Group, thinks that’s a dangerous assumption. In today’s essay, Tom explains why the government could “terminate” your Social Security money without warning.

The good news is that there’s another option. Tom explains how to defend yourself against this threat.




You probably thought Americans had a “right” to collect their Social Security in old age, right? Most people see Social Security as a contract between themselves and the government. You pay money into the system, and the system pays it back at a later date—guaranteed by law.

But nothing could be further from the truth..…

You have no choice when it comes to paying your Social Security tax. It comes out of your paycheck automatically. But did you know the government isn’t under the same rigid contract? In fact, by ruling of the United States Supreme Court, the federal government is under no obligation to pay you a Social Security check.

This is the clear precedent set in the case of Flemming v. Nestor.

Ephram Nestor was an immigrant from Bulgaria. He moved here in 1918 and paid Social Security taxes from the very beginning of the program in 1936. In 1955, when he retired, Nestor began receiving Social Security checks for $55.60 per month. But, just one year later, Nestor was deported. Turns out, he’d been an active member of the Communist Party in the 1930s, giving the U.S. government grounds to kick him out.

When he was deported, his Social Security checks stopped. Nestor sued the U.S. government, arguing that, since he had paid money into the program, he had a right to those benefits. The Supreme Court ruled against Nestor, saying the government had the right to terminate Social Security at any time.

The people who sign the Social Security checks sum it up this way:
[Nestor] appealed the termination, arguing, among other claims, that promised Social Security benefits were a contract. In its ruling, the Court rejected this argument and established the principle that entitlement to Social Security benefits is not a contractual right.
Takeaway: You have no contractual right to Social Security.

That historical precedent means it has the power to cut Social Security anytime it wants. It could end tomorrow, and there’s nothing you can do about it. (Interestingly enough, the SSA has a full page on its website devoted to the Nestor case.) Now, this doesn’t mean the government will suddenly stop paying Social Security benefits. Not now, anyway. (Suggesting an end to this system is political suicide.) But the risk, as unlikely as it seems, is possible.

Meanwhile, recent signals from the U.S. government are foreboding. On November 2, 2015, Congress and President Obama already struck down two massive Social Security loopholes called “File and Suspend” and “Restricted Application.” For some, these rule changes cut up to $60,000 of Social Security benefits over a retiree’s lifetime starting in April of this year.

Could these cuts be just the beginning?

I think so. You see, no politician wants to let Social Security cuts dominate the conversation during an election year. That’s why the government is working on all kinds of sneaky and indirect ways to pay out less money in benefits. It has to do with COLA (cost-of-living adjustment).

I won’t get into all the details here, but know this.....

A small clause in the Social Security Act says that if there is no cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security, then, by law, Medicare premiums can’t be raised for the majority of middle- and lower class Americans. Instead, 3.1 million select Americans will absorb the full increase. If you’re one of them, you’ll see Medicare premiums rise 52%.

In some cases, you could lose as much as $4,200 in 2017 alone..…

That’s like having nearly three months’ worth of Social Security benefits ripped away from you. What we have here is a Social Security cut disguised as a Medicare cost increase. If you’re affected, your Social Security money is going to be taken away from you to subsidize health care coverage for lower income Americans. I think this could be one of the first changes coming immediately after the 2016 election.

Bottom line: If you’re not actively working on a plan B for the coming Social Security cuts, you should be. Congress has just given a couple of big hints of what’s to come in the months, years, and decades ahead.

Good investing,
Tom Dyson




Editor’s note: For years, retirees have relied on three main sources of income: pension plans, Social Security, and personal retirement accounts such as 401(k)s.

Unfortunately, this model is on the verge of complete collapse..…

To help you protect your wealth, Tom and his colleagues are putting on a first-ever Retirement Rescue Round table this Tuesday. Their entire team of experts will be there—including Doug Casey’s longtime friend and colleague, Mark Ford.

To learn more about Tom’s retirement strategy, click here to watch this free video.




Get out latest FREE eBooK "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Tuesday's Webinar...Low Risk Setups For Trading Precise Turning Points in Any Market

Join John Carter of Simpler Options for a special online training on Tuesday evening September 6th, 2016 at 7 pm central and discover low risk option strategies for catching "bold and beautiful" reversal trades. John will also show us how to hunt for tops and bottoms using low risk setups for trading precise turning points in any market and so much more.

Get Your Seat Here

Most traders have no idea how to capture the massive profit potential from trading major reversals. These days’ markets often turn on a dime and those who wait for ‘conservative’ setups either miss out or suffer steep losses.

Here's what you can expect to learn during this live webinar session....

  *  A simple 3-step process to identify major market turning points in any market

  *  How to find low risk, high probability trades in today's volatile market conditions

  *  Why it’s finally possible to catch tops and bottoms in real time on almost any chart

  *  Why these ‘Bold and Beautiful’ reversal trades can be safer than ‘comfortable’ trades

  *  How to avoid getting suckered into the costly traps that most traders fall into

  *  How to adapt your trades automatically for choppy conditions AND big trends

  *  How to know when a support or resistance level is likely to hold or not


       Get your reserved spot Right Here


       See you Tuesday evening,
       The Stock Market Club


Get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!




Sunday, September 4, 2016

The Subprime Loan Crisis Is Back…Here’s What It Could Mean for the Economy

By Justin Spittler

Subprime loans are going bad again. A “subprime” loan is a loan made to someone with bad credit. If the term sounds familiar, it’s because lenders issued millions of subprime loans during the early to mid-2000s. Banks made these risky loans thinking housing prices would “never fall.” When they did, subprime borrowers stopped paying their mortgages. The U.S. housing market collapsed, triggering the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

These days, lenders aren’t making as many reckless mortgages. But subprime lending is alive and well in the auto market. Since the financial crisis, subprime auto lending has exploded. According to Experian, subprime auto loans now make up more than 20% of all U.S. auto loans. Millions of Americans with bad credit now own cars they should have never bought in the first place. Risky subprime loans have also made the auto loan market incredibly fragile.

Right now, people are falling behind on their car loans at an alarming rate. As you'll see, this isn't just a big problem for lenders and car companies. It could also spell trouble for the entire U.S. economy.

Subprime auto loan delinquencies are skyrocketing…..
CNBC reported on Friday:
Delinquencies of at least 60 days for subprime auto loans are up 13 percent month over month for July, according to Fitch Ratings, and 17 percent higher from the same period a year ago.
Folks with good credit are falling behind on their car loans too. CNBC continues:
Even prime delinquencies are on the rise — Fitch Ratings' survey said that last month's prime auto loans were 21 percent more delinquent than in July 2015.
Prime loans are loans made to people with good credit.

The auto industry is preparing for more delinquencies…..
Last month, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) warned that rising delinquencies could hurt their businesses in the second half of this year.
According to USA Today, both giant carmakers have set aside millions of dollars to cover potential losses:
In a quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Ford reported in the first half of this year it allowed $449 million for credit losses, a 34% increase from the first half of 2015.
General Motors reported in a similar filing that it set aside $864 million for credit losses in that same period of 2016, up 14% from a year earlier.
Investors who own subprime loans are taking heavy losses.....

USA Today reported on Thursday:
[T]hese loans are packaged into bundles which are sold to investors, much like mortgages were packaged into bundles a decade ago before rising interest rates caused many of them to default, eventually triggering the deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression. The annualized net loss rate — the percentage of those subprime loan bundles regarded as likely to default — rose 7.39% in July, up 28% from July 2015.
You may recall that Wall Street did the same thing with mortgages during the housing boom. They made securities from a bunch of bad mortgages. They marked them as safe and then sold them to investors. When the underlying mortgages went bad, folks who owned these securities suffered huge losses. These dangerous products allowed the housing crisis to turn into a full-blown global financial crisis.

By itself, a collapse of the auto loan market probably won’t trigger a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis..…

That’s because the auto loan market is much smaller than the mortgage market. The value of outstanding auto loans is “only” about $1 trillion. While that’s an all-time high, the auto loan market comes nowhere close to the $10 trillion residential mortgage market. Still, we’re keeping a close eye on the auto loan market.

If Americans are struggling to pay their car loans, they’re going to have trouble paying their mortgages, student loans, and credit cards too. This would obviously create problems for lenders and credit card companies. It will also hurt companies that depend on credit to make money.

E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, is shorting one of America’s most vulnerable retailers..…
In June, E.B. shorted (bet against) one of America’s biggest jewelry companies. According to E.B., credit customers make up 62% of its customers. These customers are 350% more valuable to the company than cash customers.

In other words, this company depends heavily on credit. This is a huge problem…and will only get worse as more folks continue to fall behind on their credit card bills—or stop paying them altogether. This is already happening at the company E.B shorted. He explained in the June issue of The Casey Report:
And the company is facing another problem…consumers failing to pay back their loans. From 2014 to fiscal 2016, its annual bad debt expenses rose from $138 million to $190 million. That’s a 30% increase. Over the same period, credit sales grew by only 20%. That means bad debt expenses rose 50% faster than credit sales.
He warned that “tough times are coming for the jewelry business.”

E.B.’s call was spot on..…
Last Thursday, the company reported bad second quarter results. For the second straight quarter, the company’s earnings fell short of analysts’ estimates. The company’s stock plummeted 13% on the news. It’s now down 10% since E.B. recommended shorting it in June. But E.B. says the stock is headed even lower:
We think there’s more pain to come as credit financing dries up…sales continue to drop…and more loans go unpaid.
You can learn more about this short by signing up for The Casey Report. If you act today, you can begin for just $49 a year. Watch this short video to learn how.

This is easily one of the best deals you'll come across in our industry..…
That’s because Casey readers are crushing the market. E.B.’s portfolio is up 19% this year. He’s beat the S&P 500 3-to-1. What’s more, Casey Report readers are set up to make money no matter what happens to the economy—and that’s never been more important. To learn why, watch this short presentation.

Chart of the Day

Not all dividend-paying stocks are safe to own..…

Today’s chart compares the annual dividend yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury with the annual dividend yield of the S&P 500. Right now, 10 years are paying about 1.5%. Companies in the S&P 500 are yielding 2.0%.

You can see the S&P 500 almost never yields more than 10 years. It’s only happened two other times since 1958. The first time was during the 2008 financial crisis. The other time was just after the recession.
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know the Federal Reserve is partly responsible for this. For the past eight years, the Fed has held its key interest rate near zero. This caused bond yields to crash. With Treasuries yielding next to nothing, many investors have bought stocks for income. But there’s a problem.

Companies in the S&P 500 are paying out $0.38 for every $1.00 they make in earnings. That’s close to an all time high. About 44 companies in the S&P 500 are paying out more in dividends than they earned over the past year. Meanwhile, corporate earnings have been in decline since 2014. Clearly, companies can’t continue to pay out near-record dividends for much longer.

As we explained yesterday, some companies may cut their dividends. This could cause certain dividend-paying stocks to crash. Some investors could see years’ worth of income disappear in a day. If you own a stock for its dividend, make sure the company can keep paying you even if the economy runs into trouble. We like companies with healthy payout ratios, little or no debt, and proven dividend track records.



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