Thursday, December 27, 2018

Has This Selloff Reached a Bottom Yet?

Everyone wants to know if this selloff has reached a low or bottom yet and what to expect over the next 30 - 60+ days. Since October, the U.S. stock market has reacted to the U.S. Fed raising rates above 2.0% with dramatic downward price moves. The latest raise by the U.S. Fed resulted in a very clear price decline in the markets illustrating the fact that investors don’t expect the markets to recover based on the current geopolitical and economic climate.

Over 5 years ago, our research team developed a financial modeling system that attempted to model the U.S. Fed Funds Rate optimal levels given certain inputs (US GDP, US Population, U.S. Debt, and others). The effort by our team of researchers was to attempt to identify where and when the U.S. Fed should be adjusting rates and when and where the U.S. Fed would make a mistake. The basic premise of our modeling system is that as long as Fed keeps rates within our model’s optimal output parameters, the U.S. (and presumably global) economy should continue to operate without massive disruption events unless some outside event (think Europe, China or another massive economic collapse) disrupts the ability of the U.S. economy from operating efficiently. We’ve included a screen capture of the current FFR modeling results below.

This model operates on the premise that U.S. debt, population, and GDP will continue to increase at similar levels to 2004-2012. We can see that our model predicted that the U.S. Fed should have begun raising rates in 2013-2014 and continued to push rates above 1.25% before the end of 2015. Then, the U.S. Fed should have raised rates gradually to near 2.0% by 2017-2018 – never breaching the 2.1250% level. Our model expects the U.S. Fed to decrease rates to near 1.4 - 1.5% in early 2019 and for rates to rotate between 1.25%~2.0% between now and 2020. Eventually, after 2021, our model expects the US Fed to begin to normalize rates near 1.5-1.75% for an extended period of time.


Additionally, our Custom Market Cap index has reached a very low level (historically extremely low) and is likely to result in a major price bottom formation or, at least, a pause in this downward price move that may result in some renewed forward optimism going forward. Although we would like to be able to announce that the market has reached a major price bottom and that we are “calling a bottom” in this move, we simply can’t call this as a bottom yet. We have to wait to see if and when the markets confirm a price bottom before we can’t attempt any real call in the markets. You can see from our Custom Market Cap Index that the index level is very near historically low levels (below $4.00 – near the RED line) and that these levels have resulted in major price low points historically. We are expecting the price to pause over the next week or so near these $3.50 levels and attempt to set up a rotational support level before attempting another price swing. As of right now, we believe there is fairly strong opportunity for a price bottom to set up, yet these are still very early indicators of a major price bottom and we can’t actually call a bottom yet. If our Custom Market Cap Index does as it has in the past, then we are very close to a bottom formation in the US markets and traders would be wise to wait for technical confirmation of this bottom before jumping into any aggressive long trades.


Lastly, our Custom Global Market Cap Index has also reached levels near the lower deviation channel range over the past 7+ years, which adds further confidence that a potential price bottom may be near to forming in the US markets. As we can see from the chart below, the recent selloff has pushed our Global Market Cap Index to very low levels – from near $198 to near $144; a -27.55% total price decline. Nearing these low levels, we should expect the global markets to attempt to find some support and to potentially hammer out a bottom, yet we are still cautious that this downward price move could breach existing support levels and push even further in to bear market territory.


There are early warning signs that the market may be attempting to form a market bottom and our research team is scanning every available tool we have at out disposal to attempt to assist all of our members and followers. We alerted you to this move back on September 17, 2018 with our ADL predictive modeling system call for a -5 - 8%+ market correction. Little did we know that the U.S. Fed would blow the bottom out of the markets with their push to raise rates above the 2.0% level.

As the U.S. Fed has already breached our Fed Modeling Systems suggested rate levels, the global markets will be attempting to identify key price support in relation to this new pricing pressure and the expectations that debt/credit issues will become more pronounced as rates push higher. In other words, the global markets are attempting to price in the renewed uncertainty that relates to the U.S. Fed pushing rates beyond optimal levels. We expect the markets are close to finding true support near the levels we’ve shown on our Custom Index charts, yet we still need confirmation before we can call it a bottom.

We will continue to update you with our research and analysis as this move plays out and we hope you were able to follow our analysis regarding the Metals, Oil, Energy and other sectors that called many of these massive price swings. We pride ourselves on our analysis and ability to use our proprietary tools to find and execute successful trades for our members. Our ADL predictive price modeling system is still suggesting an upward price move is in the works for the U.S. markets and we are waiting for our “ultimate low price” level to be reached before we expect an upside leg to drive prices higher again. Based on our current research, we may be nearing the point where the markets attempt to hammer out a price bottom – yet time will tell if this is the correct analysis.

Please take a minute to visit The Technical Traders to learn how we help our members find and execute better trades. Recent swings in the markets have made it much more difficult for average traders to find and execute successful short term trades. Learn how we can help you find greater success and read some of our recent research posts by visiting our Free Research section of the Technical Traders.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, December 24, 2018

The SP500 Breaks 2018 February Lows - What Next?

The ES (S&P e-mini contracts) broke the support level from the February 2018 lows immediately after the US Federal Reserve announced a 25 bp rate hike this week. This breakdown below the February 2018 lows is concerning because it indicates that previous support is not holding and we could be in for further downside price activity.



We are preparing a detailed research post for early next week regarding a broad range of US markets as well as how our proprietary price modeling systems are reflecting this recent price move. What we can suggest to all investors is play small positions at the moment and prepare for increased volatility. There is near term support that may come into play soon, but overall the markets are reacting to a deleveraging event that could see prices push below 2400 before finding true support.

Visit The Technical Traders to read all of our recent research posts and see what we believe will be the big movers in 2019.

Chris Vermeulen



Stock & ETF Trading Signals



Tuesday, December 18, 2018

ES Sets Up Major Double Bottom Ahead of the Fed

The downside price rotation in the U.S. markets on Monday, December 17, set up a near perfect double bottom formation near the 2530 price level and also prompted a dramatic price recovery after reaching these lows. Currently, the ES has rallied over 35 pts from this low level and will likely pause before the Fed minutes are announced on Wednesday, December 19.

If the Fed holds true to their earlier promises of continued rate increases, we could see this 2530 level broken as price retreats from any relief rally and attempts to find lower support. If the Fed changes the context of their message and adopts a slower and more insightful rate policy, the markets are poised for one heck of a potential rally. The ES if down by a little more than 400 points (-13.75%) from the peak in September 2018.

Check Out Our 3 Hour Trading Strategy Mastery Video 

We believe the markets have already priced in the expected Fed rate hike and we believe an additional rate hike could become a catalyst for a downside move towards 2300 if the 2530 level is breached. We would like to see the Fed pause, or even decrease rate levels by 25 bp, allowing the markets to parse through the credit/debt issues that have started to plague the global markets before it causes the markets to “turn turtle” and prompt a greater crisis event.



Some of our earlier research, from 2013-2014, was a modeling system dedicated to the Fed interest rates, GDP, Population and Asset Valuations. We modeled various outcomes of the global economy over the future 15 to 20 years including massive debt increases, massive debt decreases, slowing GDP, growing GDP, massive changes in population and asset levels and many others. Overall, our research showed that the 2% Fed Funds Rate level should have been an upper boundary and should have been a near term target back in 2015-2016. As or right now, the Fed should be decreasing rates to allow for a smooth transition through a “deleveraging process”.

The Fed is behind the curve and is failing to properly navigate the future outcomes of global assets, debt and credit cycles. If the US Fed is not cautious over the next 12+ months with how they manage the FFR, they could push the entire global economy over a cliff faster than they can spell “Powell”.

Everything rests on Wednesday, December 19 and the U.S. Fed at this point. Our predictive modeling systems are still suggesting we should see strong upside price activity throughout the end of this year and early next year – assuming the Fed does not pull the floor out from under this market and capsize the global credit markets again.

Learn how we can help you find and execute trades for better success. Our analysis has been well ahead of these market moves for months and we’ve nailed some incredible trades.

Visit The Technical Traders to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen



Saturday, December 15, 2018

Natural Gas Setup For a Big Move Lower

Our proprietary Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting Natural Gas is about to break down below the $4.30 level and move aggressively toward the $3.05 - 3.25 level. This could be an incredible move for energy traders and a complete bust for existing longs.

This Weekly Natural Gas chart is showing our Fibonacci Predictive modeling system and highlighting the lower support price targets just above $3.00. We believe price weakness will break the $4.30 level very quickly and drive prices well below the $3.40 level – very likely towards support near $3.25 over the next few weeks.



Our Advanced Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive price modeling system is showing similar results. It suggests a major price anomaly is setting up in Natural Gas that will prompt a massive downside price move over the next 2 - 3 weeks before an equally incredible price recovery takes place. The total of this predicted price swing is nearly $2.00 ($1.00 down and then $0.85 back to the upside). If this move takes place as our modeling systems are suggesting, this will drive a massive “washout move” pushing the long traders out of their positions on the way down and then pushing a massive short squeeze on the way back up to near $4.00.



This is the type of price swing that makes for incredible success stories if traders can play this move properly. Pay attention to the fact that the lower predicted levels of our ADL system (shown near $3.20) may not be reached in this downward price swing. Our predictive modeling system is suggesting these are the highest probability price outcome based on its internal price and technical analysis. Still, when one takes a good hard look at this chart, it is easy to see the “price anomaly” setup where the current price of Natural Gas is nearly $0.80 above the currently predicted price levels (shown as YELLOW DASHES) and how the ADL Predictive modeling system is suggesting a big downward move is about to unfold.

Want to keep receiving incredible trade setups like this one and learn how our research team and specialized price modeling systems can help you find and execute better trades? Then please visit Technical Traders Ltd. to learn more about our services and tools. We have been helping traders find and execute better educated trading decisions with our specialized tools and research for years. Visit The Technical Traders Free Research to read all of our most recent public research posts and to see how we’ve been calling these market moves over the past few months.

Chris Vermeulen

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Is a Deleveraging Event About to Unfold in the Stock Market?

As 2018 draws to a close and the global equities markets continue to find pricing and valuation pressures driving prices lower, a few questions come to mind for all investors/traders – Is a deleveraging event about to unfold? What will it look like if it does happen and how can I protect my investments from such an event? This research article is going to help you answer those questions and should help to resolve any lingering questions you may have regarding the true nature of this market rotation and volatility.

Our research team at The Technical Traders has been digging through the data and charts in an attempt to identify key elements of this recent price move. We are starting with our Monthly Adaptive Dynamic Learning Cycles chart of the ES (E-mini S&P). As you can see from this chart, our ADL Cycles modeling system is showing a deep downside price rotation is likely to unfold over the next 8 - 12 months. One thing to remember about this chart is that these cycles and the width of the future cycle peaks and troughs are NOT indicative of price target levels. Therefore, this downside move is NOT suspected of reaching price lows near 1000 or 1200. These cycles are representative of a magnitude of cycle events. In other words, this current cycle, downward, is expected to be a major cycle event that establishes a major price bottom somewhere near the end of 2019 or early 2020.

We urge traders to understand the scope of this cycle event. Look at the previous cycle events on this chart. Numerous downside cycle events have taken place over the past 10+ years that represent somewhat similar down cycle price moves. The most recent was in 2015 - 2016. This event represented a moderately deep down cycle even that equated to a 300 - 400 point price rotation in the ES. If the current cycle event is relative in scope to the last, then this current down-cycle event will likely result in a 600 - 800 point price rotation, and we have already experienced a nearly 300 point rotation in the ES. This would suggest a potential price bottom near 2100 - 2300 on the ES if the scale and scope of the current cycle event are relative to the previous down cycle event.



This next chart highlights key time/price cycles on the SPY Monthly chart to help us keep the timing of these events in perspective. As we have suggested, above, a major down cycle even may be unfolding that results in a deleveraging even across the global markets. If this does, in fact, take place, there are a number of elements that will likely play out. First, currencies will fluctuate dramatically as deleveraging takes root. Capital will seek out and identify the safest and most suitable returns by rushing away from risky markets and into safer markets. Additionally, a prolonged deleveraging of global equities may take place where valuations are reduced as capital attempts to establish a balance between expectations and true market value. Overall, this is a very healthy event for the markets as long as it does not result in a total collapse of price, as we saw in 2008-09.

This SPY chart highlights three key components of the markets current setup. First, the RED LINE (a 2.618 Fibonacci extension from the 2015 - 2016 price rotation at $266.50) is acting like a strong support level in the markets. This level, along with the 2018 lows near $254.78, are important levels that we are watching to determine if any further downside price activity is unfolding. As long as these two levels are not breached to the downside, we can confidently say that the upside trend is still intact. Second, the two BLUE price channels, which originate from the 2009 market bottom, establish a powerful upside price channel that will act as critical support should price reach near the lower level of this channel. This means that any downside price rotation will likely find solid support near $232.00 or higher. Lastly, the vertical time/price series cycles are suggesting that May and Oct of 2019 are likely to prompt significant price reversal patterns/setups. This helps us to understand that any potential breakout moves (up or down) will likely reach some critical inflection point, or reversal points, near May and October of 2019.



Next, we fall back to our Custom US Market Index chart on a Monthly basis. This chart, again, shows the support level originating from the lows of 2009 in a heavy BLUE line as well as two price channel levels that represent current price ranges. The first thing we want you to focus on is the breadth of the current rotation within the regression channel on this chart (the red/blue shorter price channel). Currently, the price is within this standard regression channel and has yet to break the longer-term, more aggressive, upward price channel. Additionally, we can see from this chart that the recent price activity is still measurably above the 2018 price lows near 374.12. Secondly, the Pitchfork channel, originating from the 2009 lows and spanning the range of the 2015 - 2016 price rotation, provides additional confirmation that we are still well above the middle and lower areas of this price channel. Even if the current price did fall by another 4 - 8%, the price would still be within the normal channel levels of this extended upside price channel.

So, when we consider the scale and scope of this current downside price rotation, we have to be very aware of the real expectations of the market. Yes, it looks frightening when we see it on a Daily or Weekly chart. But when we consider the real reality of the long term perspective, we can begin to understand how the price is reacting to the recent upside acceleration since 2017.



Lastly, this Daily ES chart is showing what we believe is the most important data of all and why all traders need to understand the risks involved in this rotating market. First, this chart shows our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Fibonacci price modeling system and the results of this chart are clear to our team or researchers – although it might be a bit cluttered to you. So we’ll try to explain the basic components of this chart for you.

The heavy RED and GREEN levels that are drawn above and below the price action are the Fibonacci Price Trigger levels. These indicate where and when we would consider a new price trend to be “confirmed” As you can see, the most recent “confirmed” trigger happened on Oct 10 with a huge breakdown of price confirming a bearish price trend. Since then, these Fibonacci Price Trigger Levels have expanded outside price as volatility and price rotation has also expanded. This indicates that price will have to make a bigger push, higher or lower, to establish any new confirmed price trend based on this modeling system.

There are two heavy YELLOW lines bordering recent price rotation on this chart that help us to understand a rather wide flag/pennant formation appears to be forming within these rotation/channel levels. For example, the absolute low of the current bar touched this lower YELLOW level and rebounded to the upside very sharply. It is very likely that a washout low price pattern executed today that may provide further price support near 2626 in the ES in the immediate future. Either way, the price will have to exit this YELLOW price channel if it is going to attempt any new upside or downside price trends. As long as it stays within this channel, we have a defined range that is currently between 2626 and 2800.

Lastly, the LIGHT BLUE oblique has been our estimated critical support level in the ES since our September 17 market call that a 5 - 8% downside price rotation was about to hit the markets. This level was predicted by our ADL predictive price modeling system and has been confirmed, multiple times, by price over the past few months. It is very likely that this level will continue to act as major support going forward and will be the last level of defense if price attempts a downside price move. In other words, as we stated above, 2600 - 2680 is a very strong support range in the markets right now. Any breakdown below this level could push the markets toward the 2018 price lows (or lower). As long as this level holds, we could see continued deleveraging in the markets as US Dollar, Energy, Commodity, Currency or global market price weakness while the US markets attempt to hold above the 2018 lows.



Pay very close attention to our Fibonacci price modeling and U.S. Custom Index charts, above, because we believe these charts paint a very clear picture. Yes, a deleveraging event is likely already unfolding in the global markets. It has been taking root in various forms over the past 12+ months in all reality. The U.S. markets are continuing to shake off the downside pricing pressures that we’ve seen in other global markets, and this is likely due to the “capital shift” event that is also unfolding throughout the globe.

Our advice for active traders would be to consider drastically reducing your trading sizes as well as pare back your open long positions if you are concerned about a market breakdown. Our modeling systems are suggesting we have many months of rotation within the market to reposition and evaluate our plans for future success. Unless the 2018 lows and the multiple critical support levels we’ve highlighted are threatened, we believe this rotation is nothing more than standard price rotation with acceptable ranges (see the charts above again if you have questions). Yes, there is still concern that a price breakdown may unfold and we are certainly seeing a deleveraging event taking place. We are not calling for a price collapse at the moment, and we have explained the reasons why we believe our research is accurate.

Use the best tools you can to assist you, just as we do for our members. The only thing you can do in a situation like this is taking factual data, evaluate the true price data and make an educated and logical conclusion about the markets. If you want to learn how we help our clients find and execute better trades and how we are preparing to make 2019 an incredibly successful year with our members, then visit The Technical Traders and see what we offer our members.

Chris Vermeulen



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Sunday, December 9, 2018

3 Marijuana Stocks to Buy for 2019 (Yours Free)

Mark my words: 2019 will go down in history as the biggest year ever for marijuana stocks. I know that's a huge claim after the run up last year, but that should give you an idea of how big this marijuana megatrend really is for investors.
  • Did you know that the North American Marijuana Index that tracks 39 leading marijuana stocks soared over 130% from mid-2017 to mid-2018?
  • Did you know that adult recreational sales amounted to $2.6 billion in 2016 and could reach $11.2 billion by 2020?
  • Did you know that the medical marijuana market alone was worth $6.7 billion in 2016 and is projected to grow to $13.3 billion by 2020?
So it's no surprise that cannabis-related businesses make up one of the fastest-growing industries in the United States.

In fact, in the first two months after California dispensaries started to legally sell recreational marijuana on January 1, 2018, companies in the cannabis industry increased by nearly $2 billion in value.

And California's move just marks the beginning.

Canada just legalized recreational marijuana, and savvy investors are already grabbing shares in 3 hot marijuana picks that are set to soar.


If the $2 billion in value from the California announcement is any indication of what's to come after the Canadian announcement, you'll want to stake a position in these 3 hot marijuana picks that are poised to make investors really rich:
  • #1 Marijuana Pick: This Canadian marijuana stock is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry that is experiencing a strong on-boarding of new customers. Annual revenues increased by 370% and I don't expect to see that slowing down any time soon. Now that the announcement is out, this stock is a must-own ahead of the news. Get the full details here.
  • #2 Marijuana Pick: This $318 million plant biotechnology company is focused on developing innovative products like marijuana plants that don't contain THC (the element that makes people high). With $65 million in cash on hand to reinvest in the business,this company is a great place to invest in this hot marijuana megatrend now that the announcement has been made.
  • #3 Marijuana Pick: This is a one-of-a kind cannabis opportunity that focuses on the healthcare, consumer and materials sectors. This is an easy way to profit from the legalization of marijuana and the use of cannabinoids in prescription drugs.
I can understand why you might have been skeptical of marijuana stocks in the past, but I urge you to look a little closer at this profitable megatrend for 2019. You just can't afford to let this profitable opportunity pass you by.

Download this hot-off-the-presses report today to get a better understanding of how to invest in marijuana stocks, along with all the details on my top three marijuana stocks to buy for 2019. This report is yours free for the next 24 hours.
Sincerely,

Matt McCall
Editor, McCall's MoneyWire

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Renewed Economic Optimism Will Hold Metals Near Recent Lows

The U.S. stocks are already up 1.5%, and gold 1.1% or more on news originating from Argentina from the G20 meeting. The commitment from the U.S. and China to restore talks and hold off on new trade tariffs for a 90 day period of time allows the markets some breathing room and some time to digest future expectations. Combine that with the U.S. Fed talking about taking a more dovish approach to rates and that rates are near “neutral” and we have a perfect setup for the global equity markets to rally back towards recent all time highs.

This type of equity opportunity will push the metals markets towards recent price ranges/lows with almost no attempt at upward price activity. In our opinion, we are looking for the next 14 days to be quite explosive in the equities markets and quite mute in the metal’s markets.

Gold will likely stay below $1250 for the next 10 - 14 days as a renewed global equities rally takes hold. This is an excellent time to establish new long positions as our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that the metals markets should start to move higher near the end of 2018 and into early 2019.



Silver will likely stay below $14.40 for the next 10 - 14 days with the possibility of falling below $14 on a washout low price rotation near Dec 10th or 11th. This would be an excellent time to look for and set up positional long trades in metals miners or SIL in preparation for the late December and early Jan price pop that our predictive modeling system is suggesting will happen.



The initial upswing price activity in the metals will push prices above recent price peaks ($1260 for Gold and $15.00 for Silver). Our modeling systems suggest this price move will stall in late Jan 2019 and continue to stay muted till April or May of 2019. At that point, a new upside price advance will push metals prices much higher.

This may be the last time you see prices near these lows, so be aware of the risks that are ahead of the markets. Remember, the EU and the Brexit deals will likely play a role in the rise of the metals prices over the next few months, so take advantage of these setups before they vanish.

Follow our analysis to stay on the right side of this move. Our predictive modeling systems have been calling these market moves 30 - 60+ days in advance. Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.

Chris Vermeulen

Check out Chris' 3 Hour Trading Strategy Mastery Video Course Right Here


Monday, November 19, 2018

Will Crude Oil Find Support Near $60 Dollars

Our research team warned of this move in crude oil back on October 7, 2018. At that time, we warned that oil may follow a historical price pattern, moving dramatically lower and that lows near $65 may become the ultimate bottom for that move. Here we are with a price below that level and many are asking “where will it go from here?”.

We believe the support near $65, although clearly broken, may eventually become resistance for a future upside price move. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a new target near $52.00 - $53.00 and we believe this downside move in crude oil is far from over at this point.



The current global climate for oil is that suppliers are pumping more and more oil into the market at a time when, historically, prices should continue to decline. One of our research tools includes the ability to identify overall bias models for each week, month or quarter. Historically, crude oil is dramatically weaker in the month of November and relatively flat for the month of December.

Analysis for the month of November = 11
    *  Total Monthly Sum : -44.52000000000001 across 36 bars

Analysis for the month of December = 12
    *  Total Monthly Sum : -0.699999999999922 across 36 bars

We believe the price of oil will continue to drift lower to target the $52.00 - $53.00 Fibonacci support level before attempting to find any real price support. This equates to an addition -6 to -8% price decline for skilled traders. We will alert you with a new research post as this downward price move continues or new research becomes available.

We have been calling these types of market moves all year and recently called the top in the U.S. equity markets nearly 40 days before it happened. Want to know what we think is going to happen for the rest of 2018 and into early 2019? Visit the Technical Traders Free Research to read all of our public research posts. Isn’t it time you invested in a team of researchers and tools to assist you in finding greater trading success?

Chris Vermeulen



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, November 12, 2018

U.S. Equities Roar to Life After Elections

Our research team is writing this message to alert all investors and traders of a pending rotation in the U.S. stock market that may happen between now and November 15th. The upside price breakout that is occurring on November 7th, the day after the US mid-term elections, is an incredible display of global investor sentiment regarding the GOP success in the Senate and the continued business friendly expectations originating out of Washington DC. The move, today, shows how clearly a global capital market shift is still engaged in the U.S. markets and how much global investors are counting on the US to drive ROI and economic growth going forward.

Yet, we feel it is important to urge investors that our modeling systems are still suggesting an ultimate price bottom should be setting up near November 8th - 15th and that we could still see a bit of downward price rotation over the next few days before this ultimate price bottom completes. It might be too easy to get caught up in this move, today, and fail to properly understand the price rotation risks that are still active in the time/price horizon.

The ES is currently +48.00 as of the creation of this post (+1.74%). This is an incredible move higher and the 2790 level becomes critical support for the markets as long as price is able to stay above that level.



The NQ is currently +172.50 (+2.45%) and shows just how clearly investors are piling into technology, healthcare and bio-tech after the US elections. This is a real vote from investors that they believe President Trump will be able to navigate any issues going forward and that the US economy will continue to push out strong numbers.



Follow our analysis to read our most recent research posts. We have already positioned our members for this “ultimate bottom” that our predictive modeling systems suggest is in the midst of forming. We called this entire downside move, bottom rotation and the ultimate bottom pattern setting up near November 12th back on September 17. If you want to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades, visit The Technical Traders to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen

Check out Chris' "Three Hour Mastery Trading Course" Right Here


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, October 29, 2018

Where's the Capitulation in Precious Metals?

Over the past 20+ years of research and trading in the markets, our team of traders and researchers know one thing is certain, when fear hits the global markets, precious metals react by rocketing higher. We’ve seen this happen over and over again – even when non-US geopolitical concerns spark some true fear in the markets.

If you’ve followed our research this week, we’ve been warning about how we believe this move is purely price and technical based and not really a fear based global price collapse. In other words, our technical systems, price modeling systems, and other advanced price analysis tools are suggesting this move is nearing an end and was likely a function of price rotation and less a function of true fear in the global markets.

Yes, there were a couple of key factors the precipitated this price move; the Fed, Earnings, Housing Data, Trade, and Geopolitical concerns and the US Elections. Yet the biggest concern for traders was the “deja vu” feeling that Housing could present another massive crash near an election. We’ve been through that and we know how ugly that can be if it were to unfold again.

Our researchers, at The Technical Traders, spent quite a bit of time going over the data and we continue to believe this downside price rotation in the global stock markets was nothing more than a technical price correction WITHOUT any real capitulation from other commodities. If the recent downside price collapse sowed any real fear into investors, then precious metals should have skyrocketed higher over the past 3+ weeks.

This Weekly Gold chart shows how prices advanced moderately over the past few weeks and failed to originate any real broad upside move as equity prices collapsed. Weeks ago, we predicted Gold would climb to near $1235, the CYAN line on this chart, before weakening to near $1200 again near the US mid term elections. After the elections, we believe that Gold will begin another price advance toward a price target near $1310 headed into 2019.

The YELLOW arrow showing the massive upside projections are based on our Fibonacci price modeling system and suggest that Gold may ultimately have an upside potential near $1435 or $1565 eventually. These upside targets, if reached, would be the result of REAL FEAR entering the global markets associated with a much greater contagion/capitulation event taking place. This may be something that happens in the future, as some point, but we don’t believe this is taking place now.



This Weekly Silver chart further illustrates the weakness in the precious metals sector throughout this recent global stock market collapse. The price of Silver actually fell slightly over the past few weeks and stayed near $14.75. A recent double bottom formation in Silver near $13.95 is a very strong indication that Silver is establishing a long-term base near the $14.00 level. You can see from our draws arrows that we believe Silver will continue to contract headed into the US mid-term elections, then begin a moderate advance higher.

We are actively searching for new trades within the precious metals sector that present clear opportunities for our members/subscribers as we believe this upside move in the metals will be one of the best trades in 2019. Although, right now, these trades are “set up trade” in the sense that we don’t expect any true fear to change price at the moment. We do expect investors to continue to look towards the precious metals markets as a form of protection from global events in the future and we believe that when the dam breaks and fear really does enter the markets, traders need to already be positioned within the precious metals sector – not chasing after the move.



Overall, our question still remains valid – where’s the capitulation in the precious metals? If this downside price movement within the global markets was “the top”, we have yet to see any real capitulation in precious metals, which we believe would be the first place to reflect this true fear. Without this capitulation, our researchers continue to believe this is a technical “reversion” move where price is moving lower to re-establish support for another upside price advance.

In conclusion, we do expect moderate price advances in the precious metals sector over the next 4~6+ months. We believe this sector will continue to attract investors as a means of protection against a sudden and more structural price collapse event in the future. Right now, though, we just don’t see the capitulation that would need to be in place if the downside equities move instilled any real fear in traders. It’s just not there – yet. Therefore, this recent downside swing appears to be a capital shift or reversion event where price will quickly attempt to find support, based (headed into the US mid-term elections – as we’ve been suggesting) and begin to move higher after November 12th.

Please visit The Technical Traders here for our Free Research to see all of our recent research posts and to help you understand what our researchers believe is really transpiring within the global markets.

Additionally, please visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades and stay ahead of these market moves. Learn how we help our subscribers by delivering specialized content, video, research, trading signals and more. The next few years are going to be full of fantastic trading opportunities. Now is the time to start to take advantage of these setups and create greater success for your future.

Chris Vermeulen

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Are You Going to Ignore Steve This Time?

Steve is going ALL IN on stocks right now. His prediction is appearing on TV, radio and even as full-page segments of USA Today.The Washington Times and Investor’s Business Daily. He predicts the next 9 to 12 months will be the most profitable we’ve seen in the stock market since 1999.

Who is this Steve fellow, and should you really believe him? Here’s what we know. He’s a reclusive multimillionaire in Florida. You could have doubled your money or better 18 times over the last 17 years, by following his investment ideas.

He’s famous for predicting:

    *   The Dot-com Crash in January 2000…
    *   The Gold Boom of 2003…
    *   The Bottom of the Great Recession in 2009…
    *   The Housing Boom in 2011…
    *   The $1 trillion MSCI China Shift in May 2018 and More.

But beginning October 24th, his newest prediction could be the biggest of his career and could have a huge impact on your retirement. And here’s the strange part…

When stocks plummeted 800 points last week, Steve didn’t care at all. He says we could 5 more corrections just like this. But if you get into stocks now, he says, and do one thing with your money – he believes you could make more money over the next year than you’ve likely made over the last 20 years, combined.

I Urge You to Check Out His Full Announcement Here.

Enjoy,

Jared Kelly
Managing Director, Stansberry Research

P.S. Jim Rickards… Tim Sykes… and Robert Kiyosaki are all supporting what Steve will reveal on October 24th. See what’s happening here.

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Will Crude Oil Follow These Historical Patterns?

Our research team and partners at Technical Traders Ltd., has been very interested in crude oil recently as the current rally appears to have rotated lower near a top. Our predictive modeling systems, predictive cycle analysis and other tools suggest Oil/Energy may be setting up for a downward price trend. This may be an excellent opportunity for skilled traders to identify profitable trades as this trend matures.

This Daily Crude Oil Chart shows our Predictive Cycle Modeling system and shows the projected price cycles out into the future. One can see the downside projected price levels very clearly. This cycle analysis tool does not predict price levels, it just predicts price trends. We can’t look at this indicator and think that $72 ppb is a price target (near the right side). We can only assume that a downward price cycle is about to hit and use historical price as a guide to where price may attempt to fall to.


Using our adaptive Fibonacci price modeling tool, we can see from the chart below that downside price targets are currently near $72 ppb, $67 ppb and $65 ppb. Therefore, we believe the $72 price level will become the first level of support, where our price cycle tool suggests a small rotation may occur, and the $67 price level may become the ultimate downside target level.


We believe the current price rotation in Oil/Energy may be setting up for a decent downside price move with a lower price target at or below $67 ppb. Historical data shows that this type of price action, downward, at this time is historically accurate and predictable. If you want to know how you can profit from this move and learn how our research team continues to find and execute superior trades for our members, visit The Technical Traders to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen




Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Why We Expect a 3rd Quarter Earnings Surprise

Our focus is on developing and deploying very specialized price modeling and predictive analysis systems. Our objective is to inform our members of these potential price moves and to assist them in finding successful trading opportunities. We are alerting all of our followers of a potential move today, because we believe this move could frighten some investors as we expect price rotation as Q3 earnings data is released just before the November 2018 mid-term elections.

The weekly $INDU (Dow Industrial Average) chart shows our Adaptive Predictive Learning (ADL) modeling system at work. In this example, we asked our ADL system what it believed would be the most likely outcome originating from July 23, 2018. The reason we selected this date is because this weekly price bar prompted the current upside price move. This type of price trigger can often generate highly accurate future predictive price data.

This bar consisted of 11 unique price markers that predict future price moves, first lower, then back to the upside, with a range of probability from 83% to 96%. The initial downside price move suggests that an initial -800 to -1000 pt move (-4%) will take place before November 10, 2018. Subsequently, price should begin to move upward again after the US mid-term elections and through the end of 2018.



In conclusion, October is known as a weak month for US equities so get ready for price volatility and expect the Tech heavy NASDAQ to rotate in a larger range than the S&P and the $INDU. Additionally, expect the VIX to increase in value over the next 30+ days as October passes.

I will admit the charts in July/Early September were showing signs of a market correction in mind September but no bearish reversal pattern formed and price continued higher. During this time we closed out a position in YINN for 14% profit and another 4.3% in the IYT ETF. This goes to show how we can profit to the long side even when we are expecting a sell off the markets. We trade based on technical analysis and use our ADL and other forecasting analysis to add more conviction to a move, but we don’t trade based on predictions along.

If you want to know how we help our members find and execute for greater success, visit The Technical Traders to see our completed trades for this year and learn how we can help you find great opportunities now and in the future.

Chris Vermeulen



Monday, September 24, 2018

Is Gold and the Miners About to Explode Upward?

After many weeks of pricing pressure as the U.S. Dollar extended a rally delivering nearly unending devaluation pricing in most commodities, Gold is setting up for a big upside rally and is likely to extend beyond $1240 in this initial run higher. We believe the immediate bottom has formed in Gold and we believe the upside move will consist of two unique legs higher. The first leg is likely to run to near $1240 - 1250 and end near the middle of November 2018. The second leg of this move will likely run to near $1310 and end near May 2019.

This move is the precious metals and miners will likely coincide with some moderate U.S. Dollar weakness as well as extended global market concerns related to the trade war with China, economic factors originating from China and the EU as well as concerns stemming from the existing emerging market issues. The bottom line is that all of these global concerns are setting up a nearly perfect storm for Gold, Silver and the mining sector to see some extended rallies over the next 6+ month – possibly longer.

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This Weekly Gold chart shows our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system and we’ve highlighted key price points that are currently being predicted as targets. The CYAN colored line on this chart (near $1245) shows a number of key Fibonacci projected price levels align near this level. These coordinated price targets usually result in key price levels that price will target. So, $1240 - 1250 is setting up as our first upside target.

The second key level is the MAGENTA level near $1300. This lone target well above the other aligns with historical support going back to October/November 2017.



Ultimately, our Fibonacci price modeling system is showing projected price targets as high as $1435 and $1570 – see the YELLOW ARROWS on the chart below. These levels are valid targets given the current price rotation and the potential for these levels to be reached, eventually, should not be discounted. Our Fibonacci price modeling systems are adaptive and learns from price activity as it operates. It identifies these levels based on price activity, relational modeling and active learning of Fibonacci price structure and price theory. We believe these levels will become strong upside targets over the next 12+ months which indicates we have a potential for a massive 18% to 30% upside potential in Gold.



Please take a moment to read some of our other research posts at The Technical Traders to learn how we keep our members keenly aware of these market moves before they happen and help our members find profits with strategic trading signals. Our most recent trade has already gained over 8% in less than 2 days.

Our team of researchers are dedicated to helping you find and execute greater success and our advanced proprietary price modeling solutions are some of the best in the industry. Isn’t it time you decided to invest in your future by finding a solid team of professionals to help you create greater success?


Tuesday, September 18, 2018

See How Our Predictive Model Suggest a Massive Market Rotation During the U.S. Elections

Just in time for what appears to be a potentially massive market price rotation, our researchers have put together this post to highlight what we believe will become a surprise price correction in the US Equities markets. Our team of researchers believes the correlation of our predictive modeling tools, predictive cycle tools, and other indicators are set up for what may become a massive 5 - 8% price rotation over the next 60 days.

We were expecting this rotation to start unfolding around mid-September (now) but at this time the technical are still bullish so we are not betting against the market just yet.

The combination of new US tariffs ($200 Billion about to hit in the China trade war), as well as a combination of technical issues with regards to Technology Stocks and retail expectations, could jolt the market if a correction does take place as our predictive modeling tools suggest. A simple rotation of 2 - 3% is fairly common in the markets. These predictive modeling solutions are suggesting we are just 4 - 5 days away from the start of a much bigger correction in the US Equities and Indexes.

We believe the coming US elections in combination with the other aspects of the global economy are going to drive a downward price correction that many people are not expecting right now. But there is one pocket of stocks that could benefit from this tariff stuff which members or our Wealth Building Newsletter just got long today!

Anyway, Let’s take a look at some of our index charts to see how this will likely play out.

This first chart is a Daily ES chart showing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling tool. The YELLOW/CYAN dashed lines over the price bars and into the future show the highest probable outcome from the ADL predictive modeling analysis. This instance that predicts a 5 - 6 day price advance before a price peak sets up consisted of 105 unique instances of correlative price data making up this predictive analysis. In other words, 105 unique instances of similar predictive price patterns and predicts future price moves based on the highest likely outcome of all instances of data.

In this case, the ADL modeling system is suggesting we have about 4 - 6 more days of moderately higher price activity before a price top/peak will setup – prompting a new downward price trend.



This ES Weekly ADL price chart correlates with the Daily chart almost perfectly. The Weekly chart predicts one additional week of upward price action before a massive 5 - 6% price decline drives prices lower. This massive price rotation executes over a 1 to 2 week span before briefly stalling, then an additional price decline of about 2% sets up driving prices to a predicted low near $2670 (-8.58%) on November 1, 2018 (just before the US elections).

This ADL analysis was generated by 112 unique instances of similar price data and the combined highest probability outcome is shown by the YELLOW and CYAN dashed lines on the chart. Simply put, we have a very high probability of a 5 - 8% price correction setting up over the next 20+ days in the U.S. Equities markets with a projected bottom setting up near $2670.


This last Weekly Transportation Index chart displaying the ADL predictive modeling system paints a very interesting picture when you combine it with the two earlier charts. The Transportation index typically leads the major markets by about 3 to 6 months. We have seen continued upside price advances in the Transportation Index over the past 6 months which leads us to think the US equities markets will continue to push higher overall.

Yet, this Weekly ADL predictive modeling chart shows two massive price rotations are likely to unfold before the end of 2018. The first one is set up for a downside price rotation, ending near $10,800, starting the week of September 17, 2018, and lasting about 3 - 4 weeks. Then, the ADL predicts the Transportation Index will rocket higher, near $11,800, for about 5 - 6 weeks before falling again to retest the $10,800 lows near early December 2018.

We believe critical global news and expectations regarding global trade, banking and credit may become the catalysts for these moves. The US is expected to enact over $200 billion in trade tariffs this week with China. We believe the ADL predictive modeling system is capable of identifying these massive price rotations and predicting the future rotations simply because of the massive amounts of data that it is capable of crunching. This Weekly ADL prediction consisted of 112 unique price instances and displays only the highest probable outcome. In other words, our predictive modeling system is suggesting these price moves are likely to happen based on its analysis with a greater than 50% probability.


Please pay close attention to our research posts and other articles throughout the end of this year and early into 2019. As we have been attempting to warn our followers, expect increased volatility and wider price rotation throughout the end of this year.

We expect to find a number of incredible opportunities for our members over the next few months and we have already been incredibly successful throughout this recent price rally. Our ADL systems predicted this upside price move in February of 2018 and we have stuck with it. Now, the ADL is predicting a massive rotation is about to take place – somewhat similar to February 2018. If you want to learn how to profit from these moves, visit The Technical Traders to learn how we help our members stay ahead of these types of market moves.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

How Bitcoin Will Make You Big Money Again

If you are a Bitcoin fan or looking for the next opportunity for a Bitcoin rally, you may not have long to wait before a price breakout takes place. Our research team at The Technical Traders believes a price breakout may occur before the end of 2018 – the only question is will it be a breakout rally or a breakdown crash before the next mega rally?

Cryptos and, in particular, Bitcoin has increased in popularity and adoption over the past 24 months across the globe. Recently, Citigroup has announced new technology making Crypto transactions more secure and reducing the risk of such transactions. Additionally, Circle recently announced a US Dollar based Crypto currency that is backed by Goldman-Sachs. News from Europe is that the EU has been urged to adopt common Crypto Currency rules that will fuel more attention and enterprise on developing suitable Crypto solutions for the European markets.

All of this plays into our research that a breakout/breakdown is inevitable and it is just a matter of time before this coiling price consolidation “apexes” and expands.

This chart shows massive breakdown washout below $6000 taking it back to prices before crypto became popular in early 2017.



This next chart below shows our cycle analysis and how much bitcoin moved from our cycle bottoms to tops. We are now at NEARING a critical juncture of a $6000 breakdown which is clearly a support level, and a potential major cycle bottom or continuation down cycle. Huge money can be made from this extreme volatility that is about to unfold and savvy technical traders can see the profit potential unfolding.



We urge all traders to keep Cryptos in focus over the next few weeks and months. Our research team shares our proprietary analysis and research with our paid members regarding the Crypto currency trends and trades.

If you want to learn what we believe will be the next big move in the Crypto markets, then visit The Technical Traders to learn more. Our proprietary modeling systems are clearly showing us what we should expect over the next few weeks and months. As a member, you will have access to this research and benefit from our Daily Research Videos.

Chris Vermeulen

Friday, September 7, 2018

Crude Oil Likely to Find Support in this Uptrend

I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market. I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70 - 71 ppb.

My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5 - 7+ days. I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets.

When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers. In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.

This first chart shows our proprietary price cycle modeling system at work and clearly shows the key Fibonacci support levels that I believe will act as a floor for the price of oil. I believe a bottom will form near $67 ppb and a new price rally will result in prices moving quickly back above $70 ppb.


This second chart shows the XLE price cycles on a Daily basis and I want to highlight the potential for a price move from near $73 to well above $76 (or higher) if our analysis is correct. This reflects a +4~8% price move that I believe could happen within the next 5~10+ days.



The research here shows a long entry trade over the next 2 - 3 trading days is ideal and that this move will likely end before September 21 (if the market does not change its current cycle patterns). Overall, this could be an opportunity for skilled traders and investors.

Often, followers and subscribers find my research of finding and alerting them to these types of opportunities. Most of the time, these types of triggers are ones that members would have missed or ignored. These proprietary price modeling tools provide us with a strong advantage over other traders. If you want to learn what it is like to have forward looking prediction systems backing you up every day with Daily video analysis, detailed global market research, clear trading triggers/signals and more, then join me at The Technical Traders to learn how I can help you.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals