Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Adam Hewison on This Week's "Obama Magical Mystery Tour"


Like a lot of folks, I enjoy the music of the Beatles.  While watching the news this morning, it struck me that President Obama’s bus tour was not unlike the Beatles “Magical Mystery Tour” album of 1967.
Let me explain… Here we have a President who is so out of touch with what this country is going through, he finds it necessary to go out on a three day bus tour at tax payers expense and announce that he has a job plan.  But wait, this is the magical part: he’s not going to announce this plan until after his vacation!  And the mystery part: if he has a plan, why didn’t he announce it!  
Did America really need to hear him announce that he has a plan, then not announce what the plan is?  I think not.  If you are unemployed, I’m sure the last thing you want to hear is that your president, the leader of these United States, has a job plan but his vacation is far more important than every day American jobs.  Talk about self centered.  There I said it, the king has no clothes. So let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
By the way, one of my favorite track from the Beatles “Magical Mystery Tour” album is, wait for it, “The Fool on the Hill” written by Paul McCartney, sort of fits the times don’t you think?
S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends                = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends                     = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score                                    = – 85
Chances are, the Fibonacci retracement zone between 1,223 and 1,253 will stop any further upside action. The heavily oversold condition has been corrected and we continue to see choppy action overall for this index.  Please remember that the major trend is down for the equity markets and that strong rallies represent shorting opportunities with tight money management stops.
SILVER
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends                = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends                     = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score                                    = + 75
Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines and out of silver at the present time.  Our – 75 Chart Analysis Score indicates more two-way market and a trading range.  If the market is any good, it will again resume its upward trend.  Let us be patient and wait for our Trade Triangles to kick in and give us solid buy signals.
GOLD
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends                = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends                     = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score                                    = + 100
Gold has traded as high as $1814.40 in the cash market before pulling almost $100.  The current rally is the one to watch.  The $1,723 recent low is acting as support.  The gold market has a tendency to move in swing movements both on the upside and the downside.  We have been indicating that we felt gold was going to make its high in the 3rd quarter of this year and we may have seen the high for the time being.  Both intermediate and short term traders should protect profits with tight money management stops.
CRUDE OIL
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends                = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends                     = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score                                    = – 75
This market has now moved back into the Donchian trading channel and is approaching a key Fibonacci retracement level of $91.00 a barrel.  We would not be surprised to see a little further upside action here.  The longer term trend for this commodity is down based on our monthly Trade Triangle technology.
DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends                = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends                     = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score                                    = – 70
The dollar index continues to remain in a broad trading range.  The index remains below its 200 day moving average while our longer-term Trade Triangle remains positive.
REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends                = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends                     = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score                                    = – 75
It would appear that this index has put in an interim low when it traded down to 315 last Tuesday.  Fibonacci resistant levels start at 332.95 (50%) and 337.14 (61.8%).  We want to be patient and let our Trade Triangles do the heavy lifting and wait for a signal from that front.

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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.

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