Thursday, December 31, 2009

Stock Market Commentary For Thursday Morning


The S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

However, closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1106.61 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 1127.55

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1128.20
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 1155.15

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1114.21
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1106.61

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The NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and appears poised to extend the rally into the end of this year. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1819.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1882.00
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1848.17
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1819.20

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