Gold Appears to Break Out of it's Down Trend

The stock markets had a very solid session. Most charts shot higher after Apple beat estimates Tuesday night surging over 10%. This set the tone for stocks Wednesday. Also the FOMC said they would keep interest rates low until mid 2014 and projected a 2% inflation rate which took the market by surprise. Looking at the 10 minute intraday charts of gold, silver, oil, and the SP500 you would think it was the 4rth of July with everything shooting higher.

My gut feeling before the FOMC meeting was that there would be no QE3 announced. This I figured would trigger the dollar to rise which in turn would put pressure on stocks and commodities. But the low interest rates until mid 2014 was the wild card trumping that scenario.

Trading around FOMC meetings always brings a heightened level of uncertainty to traders and investors. The news is unpredictable making that much more of beast to try and out smart. I personally do not trade on any news because of the added risk involved.

Let’s take a quick look at gold and silver...

The Weekly Gold Chart:

Gold has started to break out of its down trend and if it can hold up into Friday’s close then it will be a very positive sign for the shiny metal. It is still mid week and a lot can happen, so let’s see how it holds up and go from there.

The Weekly Silver Chart:

Silver has some work to do before it’s back in an uptrend on the weekly chart. I would not be surprised to see it catch up with gold and run toward the $35 resistance level in the next couple days.

Mid-Week Trend Conclusion:

In short, gold is on the move and in the next few weeks I figure we will be getting involved. Silver I think will unfold a little different from a chart pattern point of view, but I do feel there will be a buying opportunity soon also.

Looking more broad based we are seeing the stock market continue to make new highs with solid volume behind it while Crude oil continues to tread water.

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Chris Vermeulen

Gold/Silver – Controlling Your Trades, Money & Emotions

Last week we had typical pre-holiday light volume trading going into US Thanksgiving. The previous week I warned every one to trade with extreme caution because of the light volume and the fact that the market is on the verge of a sizable drop for both stocks and commodities. Any price action could not be taken seriously because of the light volume. We will not know until later this coming week what the big money wants to do… Buy or Sell, also what the manipulators will do… Seems like there are a lot of wild cards out there with Europe issues and both unemployment and payroll numbers out on Friday morning.

Below are a few charts showing my intermediate term outlook for gold and silver.

Gold & Silver Futures – Daily Chart
You can see both metal are showing a possible reversal head and shoulders pattern. While they have yet to confirm and close below the neck line we must be aware of this pattern and the risk/potential it provides us with. Both metals are still in an uptrend but showing signs of weakness.

US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart
This chart is not really that helpful for trading stocks, commodities or options right now but I wanted to post it because it allows me to show you how I analyze the market and my trades.

As you can see, the past 3 weeks have been in a strong uptrend reaching the first resistance level. The point of this chart is to show you that if you step out to the next longer time frame you can get a solid feeling of where an investment will find major support and resistance levels. Any investment not matter if it’s a stock, commodity or currency, if the price is trading in the middle of a large range like this chart you should not be taking large positions because it almost becomes a 50/50 bet on the market which is not a good winning strategy unless you are very experienced at managing your trades and money.

If you are going to trade then you want to focus on the underlying trend and you do that by looking at the next larger time frame. For example: if you focus on trading the daily chart, then you must step back each week and review the weekly chart to be sure you are trading with the underlying trend which is up for the dollar right now.

Weekend Trading Ideas:
Tuesday morning we saw the SP500 gap lower and continue to sell off. Traders started panicking out of their long positions and we could see it using the intraday market internals charts, which I cover each morning in the pre-market trading videos. Me being a contrarian (buying into market fear, selling into market strength) I used that high level of fear in the market along with the expected light volume holiday week ahead as an excuse to book profits near the lows on SP500 using the SDS bear fund allowing us to profit from the falling market. I feel we are going to have some crazy moves on the markets going into year end and it should be a lot of fun if done correctly.

Trading in general is a very difficult task especially if you are doing it for a living and planning on using your monthly income to pay bills, salaries etc… We all know the stress which comes with trading and if do not have a solid trading strategy, rules and cannot properly manage yourself (emotions) then you are most likely running into problems like over trading, getting shaken out of trades easily, and taking bigger risks than your account can handle. Each of these cause more traders to blow up their accounts and big up on trading.

I am giving away my book on how you can control your trades, money and emotions. This short and to the point guide is full of my trading techniques, tips and thoughts which will help you get a handle of your emotions turning the market noise into music.

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Gold, Silver and SP500 Trading Charts For Monday Morning

Last week was amazing for both gold and index traders as gold surged higher and the SP500 tested a key resistance then fell 4% in our favor. The past couple weeks with the mini market crash and Euro issues making the market extra volatile both gold and the broad market (SP500) index has been wild.
The added volatility makes trading more difficult because price patterns become less predictable and price movements are much larger increasing risk for traders.

Below are the charts & videos of what to look for in the coming days…

GLD – Gold ETF Trading
Gold continues to trend higher at an accelerated rate. Friday we saw gold pullback and test a key support level then bounced to close in the middle of the days trading range. As you can see the trend line support has become very steep and once the trend line support is broken I figure there will be a sharp drop to digest the recent rally.

SLV – Silver ETF Trading
Silver popped and tested a key resistance level from a previous high as expected. It also tested the top of its trend channel providing even more resistance. This week will be interesting as we wait to see if precious metals have a small pullback or continue to rally.

SPY – SP500 Index ETF Trading Chart
This chart clearly shows what I think is about to unfold by looking at the past market drop. Because of the mini market crash triggering everyone’s stops already I figure we have made the low and the dip we are seeing now will drift down a few more percentage points then bottom out.

ES M0 – SP500 Mini Futures Trading Setup – Pre-Drop
Below is a chart of the SP500 which we shorted or bought the SDS bear etf trading fund last week looking to profit from a falling stock market. As you can see from the chart we saw the es mini contract drift into a key pivot point on light volume. What this means is that a large group of sellers will be waiting at that price, and because volume is light we know there are not many buyers at this price level. Simple supply/demand comes into play with more sellers causing the price to stop rising and eventually force the price lower which is what we were anticipating.

The green arrows show key support levels on the 60 minute chart where 1/3 of a position should be taken of the table to lock in gains which also reduces overall risk on the trade. Once we cash in the first 1/3 of the position we move our protective stop the breakeven which is the entry point for the remaining portion of our position. This turns the trading into a winner no matter what happens allowing us to enjoy the ride…

ES M0 – SP500 Mini Futures Trading Setup – Current Price
Here is the same chart 24 hours later showing both of our profit targets triggered pocketing 2/3rds of our position for a very nice gain. Depending on the type of trading vehicle you traded there was potential to make up to 150% return in less than 24 hours.

We currently hold 1/3 of the position left with a loose stop allowing the trade to mature incase the down trend continues for several days or weeks. If not and the price rallies then our stop will get triggered for small profit on the balance of the position. Either way we win.

Stock Market ETF and Futures Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market is trading on increased volatility making it difficult to find low risk setups. At the moment we are long gold and short the SP500 with both position deep in the money. All we can do now is manage our positions to make sure we maximize our profits.

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Weekend Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, Crude Oil & SP 500 Report

Last week the market slowly recovered from the recent sell off in stocks and commodities. So far the market is unfolding as we expected and with any luck there will be a surge of low risk setups across the market in the near future. Take a look at the charts below.

GLD – Gold Chart
GLD/Gold is trading at a key pivot point. This week there will most likely be a sizable move either up or down. Past chart analysis is pointing to lower prices which would complete an ABC trace pattern and this makes for a larger and stronger rally once prices to turn back up. Silver is trading in much the same situation. Gold and silver tend to move together with silver having more volatility than gold.



UNG – Natural Gas Chart
Natural Gas continues to try and bottom and posted some solid gains last Thursday & Friday with rising volume. But we have seen this pattern form over and over again in the past year so I am not excited yet. Once the base is formed and the trend starts up we will find low risk entry points for this commodity. I would look for shorting opportunities but natural gas is so oversold I feel the risk is higher than I prefer.



USO – Crude Oil Chart
Looks like the trend line break down flushed out a lot of weak positions as seen in the volume surge. Oil momentum is still down but we are now starting to look for a buy signal.



SPY – SP500 Chart
Equities recovered nicely from the previous week’s sharp sell off. We saw volume rise with higher prices which is a strong sign of the overall strength of the market. But it is important to note that the market sentiment has reached an extreme level with 53% of traders now being bullish on the market and only 17% being bearish. This extreme level is the same level reached just before the January correction earlier this year.



Equities and Commodity Trading Conclusion:
If recent historical prices repeat again then we are looking for a small move higher on Monday and then a couple days of weakness for both stocks and commodities later in the week. The market is very close to generating several low risk trading signals which is very exciting.

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28 Day Sector Rotation, Commodity & Index Update

From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen.....

Earlier this week I noticed a pattern in the market throughout an entire trading session that has inspired me to write a short piece on sector rotation.

On Tuesday March 16th, my quote screen was flashing green as sectors reached new intraday highs or 52 week highs. The interesting part was that every sector that was flashing green happened to be in sectors that strengthen at the end of a bull market cycle or strong rally. This would include basic materials, staples, services, utilities and financial.

Today I investigated the different sectors and came across some interesting numbers between the January market peak and this week’s price action as I show in the charts below.

JANUARY – ETF Sector Rotation Trading – 28 Day Cycle
I may not explain this well but try to follow me here
Just before the market rolled over and lost over 9% last January, all the proper bull market sectors were very strong during the previous 28 days. This is normal and a strong sign that market participants were bullish on the overall market.

But the market was overbought; trading volume was light indicating that not many people are willing to buy at these lofty prices. And the VIX (volatility index) had reached an extreme low (a level that has triggered large sell offs in the past). All this means one thing to me. And that is, trade with caution and tighten your protective stops.

General rule, if everyone is buying all the hot stocks at these over bought levels then you can’t help but think its time for the market to roll over and shake them all out.



MARCH – ETF Sector Rotation Trading –28 Day Cycle
The chart of March shows where the sectors have finished over the past 28 days. Notice how similar the sectors have appreciated in price…

I have overlaid John Murphy’s sector rotation image to show which sectors are strongest in a bull market.

Now the interesting part is that it appears to be the setup as in January. My quote system is flashing new highs for the bear market cycle sectors which are the one which have not performed well (Stapes, Services & Utilities) and I have to think the market is about to take a breather or do a swan dive.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying we are on the verge of a bear market. I actually think the market is strong and will trade sideways in a large range for most of this year or just continue to trend up.
What I am saying is that these sectors go in and out of favor during smaller market cycles and that can be very useful information.



Sector Rotation Explained
You can learn more about sector rotation from this detailed course How to Profit From Sector Rotation Using ETFs. This course explains how different sectors are stronger during different points within the economic cycle. The chart above shows the relationships and which of the various sectors should strengthen from the economy. The financial Market Cycle leads the Economic Cycle because traders try to anticipate the economy.

Market Update & Trading Conclusion:
Stock Indexes: The market in my opinion is way over bought on the daily chart and needs a breather. Volume is light, VIX is at the same level we saw in January just before the top and the bullish sectors are firing on all pistons. You won’t catch me buying up here. Any type of pullback will most likely be sharp and there is no need to put money to work right now.

Precious Metals: Gold and silver had a nice pop this week off of a support level. I did not have a low risk setup as momentum was not on my side at the time of the pop. Also the large gap up on GLD makes me nervous as gaps tend to get filled. I am just waiting for something to unfold which looks to be a few days away still.

Oil: It has popped higher also and is trading at resistance. As I mentioned in Sundays report, if the USD dollar completes this breakdown then we will see commodities and stocks surge to higher prices and most likely post a nice multi month rally.

Natural Gas: We are seeing natural gas prices dip below support, shaking out traders who had their protective stops set just beneath the previous low. Natural gas is a silent killer as it will shake even the best traders out of the market. I feel natural gas is over sold and ready for a bounce but until I get a low risk setup I remain on the side lines.


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How to Day Trade and Swing Trade GLD Spot Gold Chart

From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy.....

Over the past couple of months, gold and silver have been uneventful. In this report I have posted weekly charts to show the larger trend of gold and silver. Also I have provided small charts of the US and Canadian gold stock funds GDX and XGD.

Because this report has weekly charts, which are a slow and dull time frame to follow, I have added another one of my Kitco Spot Gold Overlay trades, which is a short day trade to liven things up.

GLD ETF – Gold Bullion Price Action – Weekly Chart
I spoke with a few members last week, who wanted me to change my analysis for gold, which I agree with. So I would like to address this now to keep everyone on the same path.

In previous reports I have pointed out the reverse head & shoulders pattern in this weekly chart below. But to be honest, it is not a reverse head & shoulders, which everyone is saying it to be.

Why is gold not in a reverse H & S pattern? Because a reverse H & S pattern is just that, it means the price will reverse from the previous trend. A reverse H & S happens after a downtrend, which forms a bottom and the trend is not moving higher.

Gold has been moving higher, which you can see in 2007 and this large pattern is more like a Cup & Handle pattern – extremely bullish.



SLV ETF – Silver Bullion Price Action – Weekly Chart
Silver is trading a little different than gold. As you can see the price is trading much lower than the 2008 high. There are also two small patterns forming, which are a small head and shoulders top or a bullish pennant.

Last Friday we saw gold and silver prices jump, but until we get a low risk entry point, I continue to watch these commodities move inside their large weekly price patterns.



US & Canadian Gold Stock Funds
These small charts show how bullish the price action is this year for gold stocks. But the exciting part, which is tough to see here, is that the Canadian fund is starting to show bullish price action. When both the US and Canadian gold funds are moving together, it means there will most likely be some tradable moves in the near future. Let’s keep focused and ready to take action in the coming weeks, as these bull flags near the end of their cycle.




Day Trading Spot Gold – Day Trading GLD ETF
I will keep this short because I have written about this once before and below is the link to read my gold trading strategy in detail.

Day trading spot gold using the real-time kitco overlay chart is what I use to identify a possible day trade. The shaded box below shows a simple waterfall sell off and when I see that price action, I will generally take a position the next day around that time for a short trade in GLD.

I did not think to save this kitco chart until the following day so the waterfall price action was miniaturized because of Fridays rally. Also I would like to note this waterfall pattern happened 3 times in a row last week and I took advantage of them.

My Basic Strategy
Gold tends to move similar to what it did the previous day and traders know this, which is why the patterns starts 5-30 minutes earlier the following day, as we anticipate the move. Moves tend to repeat for up to 3 days. So you identify a sizable move and take action on it the following two days, as long as the rest of the day trades similar to the previous days. I like to scale into positions and once I see it going my way I add one final position to increase my exposure.

I am sure some of you are wondering how I traded GLD at 8am ET?
I trade with an online broker that allows me to trade pre-market and post market hours. Not very often these setups happen before 9:30am ET but last week it did.

Important note:
Once you see the price of gold making opposite moves of the previous day, minimize your position or don’t take the trade. As you can see in this chart below, the red line is starting to move the opposite way of the previous day (baby blue line) and later in the afternoon it was completely the opposite. This is a warning that there is a shift in the buyers/sellers and you can see the next day prices spiked higher in the opposite direction.


Read my previous Gold Day Trading Guide

Technical Gold Trading Conclusion:
Overall precious metals are trending sideways in their bullish patterns and we are waiting for some low risk entry points.

During slow trading times, which we are currently in, I like to look for other profitable positions to satisfy my need to trade. As a full time trader, it is important to have a few styles of trading, which allow you to profit in any market condition. My main focus is on the commodity ETF’s, with low risk setups, but I also day trade GLD when opportunities arise and I also trade extremely over bought/oversold index plays using the leveraged ETF’s and focusing on my Active Trading Partners stocks trades, which provides profitable trades week after week. Combining these trading styles allow me to pull money from the market week after week without forcing any positions. I just let perfect setups unfold and I take advantage of them.

Soon I will be providing these gold day trades and index trades for members, which I think is very exciting. If you would like to receive my free weekly trading reports please visit my website The Gold and Oil Guy