VIX and Defensive Sectors React To Perceived Trend Weakness

Since early November 2020, the VIX has continued to decline and consolidate near the 22 level. Late in December 2020 and beyond, the VIX started setting up series high price spikes – which indicates a flagging downside pattern is setting up. You can see this setup across the recent VIX highs.

Additionally, the VIX has “stepped” higher, moving from lows near 19.50 to higher lows near 21.00. This upward stepping base is indicative of a shift in volatility. My research team and I interpret this data as a sign that trend weakness is starting to build after the strong rally that initiated in early November 2020.

Although we have not seen any clear sign that the markets are about to reverse or decline, this move in the VIX is suggesting that volatility is increasing. The high price “breakout”, yesterday, in the VIX suggests a flag setup is nearing an Apex/breakout point....Read More Here.

Custom Index Charts Suggest U.S. Stock Market Ready for a Pause

Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place. The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel. This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel....attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.

Weekly Smart Cash and Volatility Indexes

The Weekly Smart Cash Index, below, highlights the impressive rally recently and the upward sloping price channel that is back in play for price. The highlighted range of the upward sloping price channel is actually the lower half of the std deviation range of the 2016 to 2018 price channel. So, as of right now, the Smart Cash Index price level has yet to really breach the middle of this channel and is still only within the lower half of the channel. Still, the support near the lower boundary of this level has been retested two or three times over the past six months and held. This suggests the lower channel level (the lower heavy BLUE line) is now acting as moderate price support....Continue Reading Here.

Bitcoins Next Stop? $14,000 or $37,200

After the incredible rally in Cryptos recently and my team’s recent research articles about how to spot a “Blow-Off Peak”, the recent downturn in Bitcoin prices has raised a valid question – is this the start of a new “Blow-Off Top” for Bitcoin? In our recent 2-part research article on Blow-Off Tops, we suggested there are five phases to a Blow-Off top setup. 

The first is an incredible rally attempt – usually somewhat similar to a parabolic price advance. We can certainly say that Bitcoin has seen a huge price advance from near $4000 in early March to over $19,000 recently (+$15,000). Is this it? Is this a major price peak or will it continue higher?

When taken in the context of what has transpired over the past 12+ months with COVID-19 and various global lock downs, it does make sense that many more displaced workers across the globe may have become actively involved in Cryptos and alternate assets. It also makes sense that a rush into the recent upside trending in Bitcoin, starting near early October 2020, may have prompted a rush for Crypto traders/investors. Everyone loves it when their investments rally 80% or more in less than 60 days.

Yet the question remains – will Bitcoin go higher or is this the intermediate-term peak in price? Historically, the recent highs are similar to the highs set in December 2017: $19,666 in December 2017 vs. $19,490 in November 2020. Technically, this is a Double-Top setup....Continue Reading Here.

It’s Go Time for Gold - Next Stop $2,250

Research Highlights....

* Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting

   up new momentum base near $1,925. 

* Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt 

   new Gold rally to $2,250.

* The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next

   4+ weeks.

The U.S. Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may break recent support to prompt this new rally in Gold. If you are a follower of my research, then you know I follow gold and silver closely. I believe Gold has completed a Pennant/Flag formation and has completed the Pennant Apex. 

Further, a new momentum base has setup near $1,925 - $1,930, near the upper range of our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s support range. My team and I believe the current upside price move after the Pennant Apex may be the start of a momentum base rally targeting the $2,250 level or higher.....Continue Reading Here.

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Free Futures Trend Jumper Strategy, the Dow eMini (YM)

Many of you are just beginning to get your FREE Trend Jumper up and running. Hopefully you were able to catch today’s winner that occurred right out the gate this morning. It ended with + 32 points using the three position approach.

Single Position Traders; + 13 points
Two Position Traders; + 31 points
Three Position Traders; + 32 Points

See Today’s FREE Trend Jumper Dow eMini Futures Trade 

Our other FREE Trend Jumper ‘module,’ the EURUSD Swingtrade, has a trade setting up as well. A setup seems imminent but we don’t know if it will trigger in or cancel. We’ll just need to watch it and remain patient and disciplined. 

Full Version Trend Jumper Owners have been treated to a multi session winning streak on many of our favorite markets.

Today was FED Minutes and Crude Oil Inventory Day so it is always good to lower your expectations a bit, trade less and get to your profit goals as quickly as possible. Like we teach in our Live Traderoom, if we can get to our signature ‘power of quitting’ goals early, we’re going to take advantage of the opportunity. And, staying on point with our ‘scalping’ theme (did you see the video in the earlier post?), many trades were quick to finish today.

Crude Oil Futures ended with two trades today for + .32, $320. Heating Oil Futures hit its target on the nail, + 37 ticks, $155 (One and done in 5 minutes.) Unleaded Gas Futures; + 124 ticks, $520 (One and done, 40 minutes)

There were lots of other strong finishes today in the futures world of daytrading, too. But how about our forex trades. There is a lot of action on that front as well. Here’s a look at a few highlights:

NZDUSD is up Hundreds of pips in just a few days — see screenshot

Yen Crosses are heading higher

Aussie crosses are in a variety of profitable trades hitting early targets

GBPUSD is still going strong

NZDCAD just hit a big profit target, + 185 pips to the 1st target and on the way higher

We trade daily charts and only spend a few minutes per day placing and managing these trades. There is NO better way to trade Forex, in my humble opinion. Moreover, there is no better way to stay out of the way of your trading and to just let the tradeplan do its thing. That IS one of the big secrets to success in this business. Once a day, then stay outta the way!!

One of our Current Forex Trades, NZDUSD 

It's not to late to get caught up....Sign up for Trend Jumper today!