Showing posts with label bailout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bailout. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

A Look at the Eurozone's 5 Bailouts

Cyprus' bailout deal is the fifth agreed on so far in the 17 strong group of European Union countries that use the euro since the debt crisis began in late 2009.

Here's a look at the rescue programs:


GREECE - Greece has received two bailout packages from its eurozone partners and the International Monetary Fund. Its problems began in late 2009, when the government admitted that public debt was far higher than official statistics showed. That led it to accept a bailout package of 110 billion euros (worth $142 billion today) in May 2010. When it became clear that bailout was not enough _ because the economy kept weakening _ a second bailout was clinched in February 2012 for another 130 billion euros. That included a writedown on the value of Greek government bonds to lighten Athens' debt burden.

IRELAND - Ireland's banks suffered from their exposure to the U.S. mortgage market meltdown as well as to a collapse in the local housing sector. The government stepped in to guarantee creditors and deposits, but the move cost it dearly. As it rescued its banks, the costs grew and soon the government's borrowing rates on bond markets rose so high it was unable to finance itself independently. It secured a 67.5 billion euro package in November 2010.

PORTUGAL - After Ireland's rescue, investors turned their eyes to the next weakest country in the currency bloc. Portugal's economy was weak and public finances shaky. The government's borrowing rates in bond markets kept rising on fears it finances would prove unsustainable. By April 2011 talks on a bailout began. In May 2011, the country agreed to a package of 78 billion euros in rescue loans.

SPANISH BANKS - Spain was considered the next weakest link, which fueled fear among European investors because the country's economy is much larger than those of Greece, Ireland or Portugal. Giving it rescue loans would severely test the eurozone's financial capabilities. The main concern was that Spanish banks, which took huge losses on a collapsed real estate market, would force the Spanish government into rescue efforts it could not afford. The Spanish government agreed a deal in July 2012 with eurozone officials to get up to 100 billion euros in rescue loans directly for the banks. For a few weeks it seemed the Spanish government would also need rescue loans, but its borrowing rates in bond markets fell back down after the European Central Bank vowed to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro. It created a new program to buy a country's bonds if needed, drastically boosting confidence in the eurozone states' public finances.

CYPRUS - The ECB's move calmed markets in Europe for months, but Cyprus' financial problems continued to fester. The country's banks had taken huge losses from Greece's debt writedown and the government also needed saving after it was overwhelmed by the cost of supporting its banks. Cyprus first formally asked for a eurozone and IMF rescue package in June 2012. The talks continued for months as Cyprus negotiated for a better deal, possibly involving Russia. The issue came to a head in March, when Cyprus agreed to confiscate a part of deposits in exchange for 10 billion euros ($13 billion) in rescue loans. That was rejected by the Cypriot parliament and after days of more negotiations a new deal was crafted. Analysts estimate as much as 40 percent of deposits above the insured limit of 100,000 euros would be seized at the country's two largest and most troubled banks. Along with other, smaller measures, that would raise the money needed to qualify for the rescue loans. (AP:LONDON)

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Sunday, June 10, 2012

What's Next Now That Mondays Precious Metals and Equity Prices are Marked UP!

The past couple months have been a roller coaster ride for investors and traders. Overseas headline news has made investing and trading more difficult than normal because of prices gaping up or down at the opening bell several times per week. The next two weeks are going to be even crazier because of the Greek election and Spanish bank bailout.
This past weekend it looks as though the Spanish banks are getting bailed out which will be similar to the 2008 – 09 bailout we saw in the United States. This news has marked up stocks and commodity prices during overnight trading Sunday. The major indexes are up 1-2% across the board.
Looking at the technical and sentiment this is what I feel will take place and how it can be attacked…
Major stock indexes and commodities will be trading at resistance at the open on Monday.
And the dollar which was hit hard in overnight trading Sunday is now trading at support. A bounce in the dollar and sellers stepping in at resistance could pull the market down for session or two.
The first 15 minutes of Monday’s session short sellers will be panicking out of their positions and getting stopped out. Once the dust starts to settle resistance and an oversold dollar may do their part and force the market lower later in the day.
Now if we add sentiment into this picture thinking of the masses covering their short positions in a big way we know from past events that when the masses all trade the same direction the market quickly reverses goes the opposite direction in the short term for 1-3 days.
So what does one do if they are short the market this week as I am in this boat?
Personally, I would wait 15-30 minutes to let things unfold and see what the price, volume and sentiment is doing. Keep in mind morning trends tend to stall out and roll over at 10am ET, or 11:30am ET. Knowing that; I will be watching price and volume to see if there is a bearish intraday pattern unfolding that looks as though it will unfold within those time frames. If so, I will hold my position and look for a reversal back down where I can exit at a lower price hopefully. But for all we know this news may just put the top market and we get much lower prices yet. Anyways, that is my plan as of Sunday night.
Stocks, Gold & Dollar Rising Together?
The recent few months I have been talking about how we could stocks, commodities and the dollar rise together. While is sounds crazy we just may start seeing that happen sooner than later. The Euro group appears to be willing to bailout the Spanish banks and that should cause the Euro lose more value and send the US dollar soaring.
Having more Euro liquidity is bullish for stocks and commodities along with the dollar. For all we know this just may be the financial storm for American’s next eggs (investments owned in Dollars) to rebound strongly over the next 12 months.
Follow Chris Vermeulen at the Traders Video Playbook com