The Wall Street Titanic and You

By Tony Sagami

“I would highlight that equity market valuations at this point generally are quite high.”

—Janet Yellen

Are you worried about the stock market? If you are, you’re in the minority of investors.
Greece… China… don’t worry about it!

At least that seems to be Wall Street’s reaction to what could have been a catastrophic fall of dominoes if the European and Chinese governments hadn’t come to the rescue with another massive monetary intervention.

If you think you’ve heard the last about Greece or a Chinese stock market meltdown, you’re in the majority. Investors are pretty darn confident about the stock market.

The John Hancock Investor Sentiment Index hit +29 in the second quarter, the highest reading since the inception of the index in January of 2011.

However, overconfidence is dangerous and often accompanies market tops.

If you listen to the hear no evil cheerleaders on Wall Street and CNBC, you might be inclined to think the bull market will last a couple more decades, but we haven’t had a major correction since 2011, and the Nasdaq hit an all time high last week.

Investors are so enthusiastic that the exuberance is spilling beyond stock certificates to the high brow world of collectible art.

Investment gamblers are shopping up art in record droves. In the last major art auction, prices for collectible art reached all time highs, and somebody with more money than brains paid $32.8 million for an Andy Warhol painting of a $1 bill.

Who says a dollar doesn’t buy what it used to?

I’m not saying that a new bear market will start tomorrow morning, but I’m suggesting that bear markets hurt more and last longer than most investors realize.

The reality is that bear markets historically occur about every four and a half to five years, which means we are overdue. And the average loss during a bear market is a whopping 38%. Ouch!

On average, a bear market lasts about two and a half years… but averages can be misleading.
In the 1973-74 bear market, investors had to wait seven and a half years to get back to even. In the 2000-02 bear market, investors didn’t break even until 2007.

Unless you, too, have drunk the Wall Street Kool Aid, you should have some type of emergency back up plan for the next bear market. There are three basic options:

Option #1: Do nothing, get clobbered, and wait between two and a half and 10 years to get your money back. Most people think they can ride out bear markets, but the reality is that most investors—professional and individual alike—panic and sell when the pain gets too severe.

Option #2: Have some sort of defensive selling strategy in place to avoid the big downturns. That could be some type of simple moving average selling discipline or a more complex technical analysis. At minimum, I highly recommend the use of stop losses.

Option #3: Buy some portfolio insurance with put options or inverse ETFs. That’s exactly what my Rational Bear subscribers are doing, and I expect those bear market bets to pay off in a big, big way.

Whether it is next week, next month, or next year—a bear market for US stocks is coming, and I hope you’ll have a strategy in place to protect yourself.

If you'd like to hear what worries me most about the stock market, here is a link to an interview I did last week with old friend and market watchdog Gary Halbert.

Tony Sagami

30 year market expert Tony Sagami leads the Yield Shark and Rational Bear advisories at Mauldin Economics. To learn more about Yield Shark and how it helps you maximize dividend income, click here.

To learn more about Rational Bear and how you can use it to benefit from falling stocks and sectors, click here.

The article Connecting the Dots: The Wall Street Titanic and You was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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Europe: Running on Borrowed Time

By John Mauldin 

“I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”

– Romano Prodi, EU Commission president, December 2001

Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro knew what they were doing. They knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted. It is not conceivable that these very astute men didn’t realize that creating a monetary union without a fiscal union would bring about an existential crisis. They accepted that eventuality as the price of European unity. But now the payment is coming due, and it is far larger than they probably anticipated.

Time, as the old saying goes, is money. There are lots of ways that equation can work out. We had an interesting example last week. Europe and the eurozone pulled back from the brink by once again figuring out how to postpone the inevitable moment when all and sundry will have to recognize that Greece cannot pay the debt that it owes. In essence they have borrowed time by allowing Greece to borrow more money.

Money, I should add, that, like all the other Greek debt, will not be repaid.

I’ve probably got some 40 articles and 100 pages of commentary on Greece and the eurozone from all sides of the political spectrum in my research stack, and it would be very easy to make this a long letter. But it’s a pleasant summer weekend, and I’m in the mood to write a shorter letter, for which many of my readers may be grateful. Rather than wander deep into the weeds looking at financial indications, however, we are going to explore what I think is a very significant nonfinancial factor that will impact the future of Europe. If it was just money, then Prodi would be right – they could just create new economic policy instruments, whatever the heck those might be. But what we’ve been seeing these last few months is symptomatic of a far deeper problem than can be addressed with just a few trillion euros, give or take.

But first, I’m going to reach out and ask for a little help. I have just signed an agreement with my publisher, Wiley, to do a new book called Investing in an Age of Transformation. I’ve been thinking about this book for many years, and it is finally time to write it. As my longtime readers know, I believe we are entering a period of increasingly profound change, much more transformative than we’ve seen in the past 50 years. And not just technologically but on numerous fronts. There are going to be substantial social implications as well. Imagine the entire 20^th century fast-forwarded and packed into 20 years, and you will get some idea of the immensity of what we face.

Now think about investing in this unfolding era of change. Companies will spring up and disappear faster than ever. Corporations will move into and out of indexes at an increasingly rapid rate, making the whole experience of index investing – which constitutes the bulk of investing, not just for individuals but for pensions and large institutions – obsolete.

Just as we wouldn’t think of relying on the medical technology of the early 20^th century, I’m convinced that we need a significantly new process for investing that doesn’t depend on the concept of indexing created deep in the last century. In an age of exponential change, being wrong in your investment style will no longer mean you simply underperform: you will not merely be wrong; you will be exponentially wrong.

Of course, the flipside is that if you get it right, you will be exponentially right. We will be exploring some new investing concepts in Thoughts from the Frontline as I write the book, since this letter is actually part of my thinking process. I’ve been spending a great deal of time lately exploring new ways of thinking about the markets, different ways to manage risk, and strategies to take advantage of overwhelming change.

This project will be significantly more complex than any book I’ve attempted so far. I’m looking for a few research interns or assistants to help me on various topics. Some topics are technological in nature, and some are investment-oriented. You can be young or old, retired or working in any number of fields; you just have to be passionate about thinking about the future and be able to spend time exploring a topic and going back and forth with me through shared notes and conversations. It’s a plus if you write well. If you are interested in exploring a topic or two, drop me a note at transformation@2000wave.com, along with a resume or a note about your background, plus your area of interest. Now let’s jump to the letter.

The More Things Change

Almost four years ago, in an article on Bloomberg with the headline “Germany Said to Ready Plan to Help Banks If Greece Defaults,” we read this paragraph:

“Greece is ‘on a knife’s edge,’” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told lawmakers at a closed-door meeting in Berlin on Sept. 7 [2011], a report in parliament’s bulletin showed yesterday. If the government can’t meet the aid terms, “it’s up to Greece to figure out how to get financing without the euro zone’s help,” he later said in a speech to parliament.

Over the last few weeks he took a similar hard line, offering the possibility that Greece could take a “timeout,” whatever in creation that is, and only the gods know how it could work for five years.
Reports of the final meeting before the agreement with Greece was reached demonstrated that there is little solidarity in the European Union. The Financial Times offered an unusually frank report of the meeting:

After almost nine hours of fruitless discussions on Saturday, a majority of eurozone finance ministers had reached a stark conclusion: Grexit – the exit of Greece from the eurozone – may be the least worst option left.

Michel Sapin, the French finance minister, suggested they just “get it all out and tell one another the truth” to blow off steam. Many in the room seized the opportunity with relish.

Alexander Stubb, the Finnish finance minister, lashed out at the Greeks for being unable to reform for half a century, according to two participants. As recriminations flew, Euclid Tsakalotos, the Greek finance minister, was oddly subdued.

The wrangling culminated when Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister who has advocated a temporary Grexit, told off Mario Draghi, European Central Bank chairman. At one point, Mr Schäuble, feeling he was being patronised, fumed at the ECB head that he was “not an idiot”. The comment was one too many for eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who adjourned the meeting until the following morning.

Failing to reach a full accord on Saturday, the eurogroup handed the baton on Sunday to the bloc’s heads of state to begin their own an all night session.”

That meeting ended with Angela Merkel and Alexis Tsipras arguing for 14 hours and giving up. Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council (and former Polish Prime Minister), forced them to sit back down, saying, “Sorry, but there is no way you are leaving this room.”

Essentially, they were arguing over what form of humiliation Greece would be forced to swallow.
To continue reading this article from Thoughts from the Frontline – a free weekly publication by John Mauldin, renowned financial expert, best-selling author, and Chairman of Mauldin Economics – please click here.

The article Thoughts from the Frontline: Europe: Running on Borrowed Time was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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It Could Never Happen Here

By Jared Dillian

I was watching the 6 o’clock news and saw images of closed banks in Greece and people lined up at ATMs. I’m sure you did, too.

This must seem surreal to most people because it seems so remote. But put yourself in these people’s shoes for a second. You have money in the bank. Suddenly you can’t get to it. After standing in long lines, you can only get 60 euros at a time, which isn’t going to last you very long.

What if you didn’t plan adequately and haven’t stashed away any cash? The banks will be closed for a while. What happens?

How do you pay for rent? Or food?
How does your employer pay you?
Do you go homeless? Or hungry?
Do you get really angry, take to the streets, blame someone or something (probably the wrong thing), break stuff, set things on fire?
Will Greece descend into anarchy?
It might.

Doomsday Preppers

Of course, not everyone in Greece is hurting. Many people saw this coming and took action. They took all their money out of the banks, put it under the mattress, or maybe stored it in a safe. Maybe they bought gold, or diamonds, or something else. These people aren’t standing in lines at ATMs. They aren’t going to go homeless or hungry.

But these people get a pretty bad rap—at least here in the US, where we call them “doomsday preppers.” Or “bunker monkeys.” Or “conspiracy theorists.” Or “gold bugs.” They take a beating. Jim Rickards tweeted the other day, “I’ll bet there a lot of Greeks saying, ‘I wish I had bought some gold.’" Truer words have never been spoken.

This week’s issue of The 10^th Man is not a gold promotion, but rather a broader discussion about how you can prepare for financial catastrophe. People keep fire extinguishers and first aid kits in their cars. They test their smoke alarms twice a year. They purchase flood insurance or, in my neighborhood, hurricane shutters.
Why would you do all these things but just leave your money in the bank and hope for the best?

I have studied all kinds of financial crises in all parts of the world, from depressions to hyperinflations. The thing they all have in common is that people who do not prepare get crushed. People who are not appropriately paranoid get crushed.

There is such a thing as being too paranoid (if everything you own is in gold and hard assets, you can miss out on some meaty returns in financial assets), but a little paranoia is healthy. For a few years, I had a pretty concrete escape plan, with assets, just in case.

In case of what?.....In case of anything.

No Sympathy Whatsoever

I don’t feel sorry for Greece. I don’t feel sorry for the people in the ATM lines. They have had years to prepare for this day. Most people in similar situations don’t have so much time. I’m shocked that the banks had any deposits left at all.

Probably what will happen is that the banks will require a Cyprus-like bail-in and the depositors will take a massive haircut, getting only a fraction of what they once owned. There are no wealthy Russians to go after. The burden will fall on ordinary Greeks.

It’s also hard to feel badly for a nation of people who have chosen to pursue this ruinous political path—people who cast 52% of their votes for communists or neo Nazis, and who have proven completely unable to take any responsibility for what has transpired.

Greece will probably respond to the failure of extreme left Syriza by electing even more extreme politicians. It seems likely that they will choose a strongman to “get things done.” I think people fail to understand how totalitarianism can happen in the 21^st century. Think of this as a YouTube tutorial video on the subject.

Full Faith and Credit

A financial crisis of similar magnitude will happen in the US someday. The only question is whether it will happen in 20 years or 50 or 100 or 200. But it is a virtual certainty. My only hope is that I won’t live long enough to see it.

Still, I know how to prepare for it. You know, in the old days before deposit insurance, people used to keep their money in five to ten different banks to diversify their counterparty risk. If a bank was perceived to be less creditworthy, the banknotes would trade at a discount.

I think that in the days of FDIC and various investor protections, we are lulled to sleep, believing that things really are safe when in reality, they are not. We were hours away from a complete and total financial collapse when the Reserve Primary fund broke the buck and there was a run on the money market mutual funds. We were that close.

After those dark days in 2008, I vowed that I’d never be in that position again.

You do sacrifice investment returns when you do this kind of stuff. Cash or gold or diamonds doesn’t yield anything. But then again, nowadays, neither do bonds. Don’t let the financial media shame you into thinking that taking basic emergency precautions to protect yourself financially is somehow “crazy.”

You can overdo it, though. You don’t need that many cans of pork and beans.

Jared Dillian

The article The 10th Man: “It Could Never Happen Here” was originally published at mauldineconomics.

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Socialism Is Like a Nude Beach - Sounds Like a Great Idea Until You Get There

By Jared Dillian

I’ve been following the activities of Syriza for a long time. They started putting up big numbers in the polls in Greece three or four years ago. Syriza has a message that’s very popular with Greeks: Screw Germany. The word they use to describe what’s happened to Greece during the period of time since the debt crisis is “humiliation.”

To be fair, if you owe a lot of money to someone, it can be tempting to give them the finger. When Greece’s debt was restructured, it was done in such a fashion that none of the debt was really forgiven, but the maturities were extended far out in the future. Since Greece doesn’t grow (for structural, demographic, and cultural reasons), this is known as extend and pretend. Everyone knew, even back then, that the only hope Greece would have to avoid default would be whatever ability they had to refinance.

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Greece has been struggling under the yoke of this debt over the last few years, and the Greeks are sick of being serfs. So Europe gets the bird, although deep down, Greece doesn’t really want to drop out of the euro. They get a lot of benefits from being part of the Eurozone, namely purchasing power and low interest rates.

So naturally, having and eating their cake simultaneously is the goal.

But Alexis Tsipras (the head of Syriza) will threaten to not pay to get what he wants, and it will be interesting to see if Germany will call his bluff. The German people have a pretty low opinion of Greece these days, so if it’s politically palatable to eject Greece from the euro, Merkel might do it.

But Tsipras at least has a credible bargaining chip: He says he can deliver higher tax revenues through better enforcement, as Greeks are notorious tax cheats. If he can pull it off, then Greece may not default. That’s all a very nice story, but I don’t believe it for a second. There will be no increased tax revenue. It’s all talk.

I want to talk a little about Syriza and who they are, because the mainstream press likes to frame them as an “anti austerity” party. But they are much more than that. In reality, they are just one step away from full communism.

If you don’t believe me, take a look at the Syriza Wikipedia page. SYRIZA, which is an acronym of the Greek words for Coalition of the Radical Left, until recently, wasn’t really a party at all—just a collection of parties cobbled together under the auspices of screwing creditors.

Here’s a list of the parties that coalesced under the umbrella of Syriza:

• Active Citizens
   
• Anticapitalist Political Group
   
• Citizens’ Association of Riga
   
• Communist Organization of Greece (KOE):
   
• Communist Platform of Syriza: Greek section of the International Marxist Tendency
   
• Democratic Social Movement (DIKKI)
   
• Ecosocialists of Greece
   
• Internationalist Workers’ Left (DEA)
   
• Movement for the United in Action Left (KEDA)
   
• New Fighter
   
• Radical Left Group Roza
   
• Radicals
   
• Red
   
• Renewing Communist Ecological Left (AKOA)
   
• Synaspismós
   
• Union of the Democratic Centre
   
• Unitary Movement
   
• And a number of independent leftist activists

Sounds like some nice folks you’d have over for dinner and a game of Trivial Pursuit.

In addition to debt forgiveness, Syriza wants a bunch of other stuff, including forgiveness of bank debt for people who are unable to meet their obligations. It’s no coincidence that the Greek stock market was down 13% when the snap election was announced, led by the banks.

In the entire post-World War II period, you’d be hard pressed to find a farther-left national government in Europe than what Greece has now.

In the interest of full disclosure, I think it’s important to point out that I’m a very free-market kind of guy, and if something is bad for markets, I oppose it. I think the Greek Syriza experiment will turn out very badly, and the Greeks will end up with a sharply lower standard of living, however that comes about.

If it comes about by exiting the euro, an immediate consequence will be that they can count on a very weak drachma and high interest rates, possibly followed by high inflation. There will be food and energy shortages. There will be pretty much everything you had in Cuba and Venezuela, just in a less extreme form. Economic misery will abound. And just as a reminder, it is very hard for such places to be governed democratically.

Every once in a while finance gives us these gifts—little controlled experiments where you can watch how two competing economic philosophies play out. East and West Germany. North and South Korea. Even among the 50 US states. As you go around the world, you can see what works and what doesn’t.

Many people think the Scandinavian countries are socialist, but they aren’t—they are very capitalist economies with high levels of redistribution. Sweden was socialist from 1968-1993, but not today. Don’t confuse that with what is going on in Greece. Greece’s economy already is dysfunctional, and it’s going to get worse. We are going to see what happens to this little Marxist archipelago, formerly a member in good standing of the European Economic Community.

But I am getting ahead of myself. As of today, they’re still a member.

The trades here are very easy. It’s hard to have a stock market in a country where property rights barely exist. It’s hard to have bank loans or bonds where debt can be arbitrarily forgiven by the government. The nonexistence of capital markets is bad, contrary to what some folks think.

I don’t usually say things like this, but any Greek stock above zero is a potential short. Politics, like stocks, has a habit of trending—for a very long time.

P.S. Thanks to David Burge (@iowahawkblog) for the inspiration for this week’s title.

Jared Dillian

The article The 10th Man: Socialism Is Like a Nude Beach—Sounds Like a Great Idea Until You Get There was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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A Look at the Eurozone's 5 Bailouts

Cyprus' bailout deal is the fifth agreed on so far in the 17 strong group of European Union countries that use the euro since the debt crisis began in late 2009.

Here's a look at the rescue programs:


GREECE - Greece has received two bailout packages from its eurozone partners and the International Monetary Fund. Its problems began in late 2009, when the government admitted that public debt was far higher than official statistics showed. That led it to accept a bailout package of 110 billion euros (worth $142 billion today) in May 2010. When it became clear that bailout was not enough _ because the economy kept weakening _ a second bailout was clinched in February 2012 for another 130 billion euros. That included a writedown on the value of Greek government bonds to lighten Athens' debt burden.

IRELAND - Ireland's banks suffered from their exposure to the U.S. mortgage market meltdown as well as to a collapse in the local housing sector. The government stepped in to guarantee creditors and deposits, but the move cost it dearly. As it rescued its banks, the costs grew and soon the government's borrowing rates on bond markets rose so high it was unable to finance itself independently. It secured a 67.5 billion euro package in November 2010.

PORTUGAL - After Ireland's rescue, investors turned their eyes to the next weakest country in the currency bloc. Portugal's economy was weak and public finances shaky. The government's borrowing rates in bond markets kept rising on fears it finances would prove unsustainable. By April 2011 talks on a bailout began. In May 2011, the country agreed to a package of 78 billion euros in rescue loans.

SPANISH BANKS - Spain was considered the next weakest link, which fueled fear among European investors because the country's economy is much larger than those of Greece, Ireland or Portugal. Giving it rescue loans would severely test the eurozone's financial capabilities. The main concern was that Spanish banks, which took huge losses on a collapsed real estate market, would force the Spanish government into rescue efforts it could not afford. The Spanish government agreed a deal in July 2012 with eurozone officials to get up to 100 billion euros in rescue loans directly for the banks. For a few weeks it seemed the Spanish government would also need rescue loans, but its borrowing rates in bond markets fell back down after the European Central Bank vowed to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro. It created a new program to buy a country's bonds if needed, drastically boosting confidence in the eurozone states' public finances.

CYPRUS - The ECB's move calmed markets in Europe for months, but Cyprus' financial problems continued to fester. The country's banks had taken huge losses from Greece's debt writedown and the government also needed saving after it was overwhelmed by the cost of supporting its banks. Cyprus first formally asked for a eurozone and IMF rescue package in June 2012. The talks continued for months as Cyprus negotiated for a better deal, possibly involving Russia. The issue came to a head in March, when Cyprus agreed to confiscate a part of deposits in exchange for 10 billion euros ($13 billion) in rescue loans. That was rejected by the Cypriot parliament and after days of more negotiations a new deal was crafted. Analysts estimate as much as 40 percent of deposits above the insured limit of 100,000 euros would be seized at the country's two largest and most troubled banks. Along with other, smaller measures, that would raise the money needed to qualify for the rescue loans. (AP:LONDON)

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Gold and Silver on the Verge of Something Spectacular

Gold and silver have taken more of a back seat over the past 12 months because of their lack of performance after topping out in 2011. Since then prices have been trading sideways/lower with declining volume. The price action is actually very bullish from a technical standpoint. My chart analysis and forward looking forecasts show $3,000 ish for gold and $90 ish for silver in the next 18-24 months.

Now don’t get too excited yet as there is another point of view to ponder....

My non technical outlook is more of a contrarian thought and worth thinking about as it may unfold and catch many gold bugs and investors off guard costing them a good chunk of their life savings. While I could write a detailed report with my thinking, analysis and possible outcomes I decided to keep it simple and to the point for you.

Bullish Case: Euro land starts to crumble, stocks fall sharply sending money into gold and silver which are trading at these major support levels which in the past triggered multi month rallies.

Bearish Case: Greece, Spain and Italy worth through their issues over the next few months while metals bounce around or drift higher because of uncertainty. But once things have been sorted out and financial stability (of some sort) has been created and the END OF THE FINANCIAL COLLAPSE has been avoided money will no longer want to be in precious metals but rather move into risk on.

Take a look at the gold and silver charts below for an idea of what may happen and where support levels are if we do see money start to rotate out of metals in the next 3-6 months.

Over the next few months things will slowly start to unfold and shed some light on what the next big move is likely going to happen to gold and silver.

The price movements we have seen for both gold and silver indicate were are just warming up for something really big to happen. It could be a massive parabolic rally to ridiculous new highs in 2012/2013 or it could be a huge unwinding of the safe havens as countries sort out their issues and the big money starts moving out of metals and into currencies and stocks.

Only time will tell and that is why I analyze the market multiple times per week to stay on top of both long term and short term trends.

To keep up with Chris Vermeulen and his thoughts on current trends and trades for gold, silver, oil, bonds and the stocks market checkout The Traders Video Playbook


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Two Short Term Scenarios for the S&P 500 Index

For the first time since the last week of December of 2011, the S&P 500 Index closed lower on the weekly chart. Recently I have been discussing the overbought nature of stocks based on a variety of indicators. However, the real question that should be asked is whether last week was just a short term event or if we see sustained selling in coming weeks.

The issues occurring in Greece spooked the markets somewhat on Friday as Eurozone fears continue to permeate in the mindset of traders. The U.S. Dollar Index is the real driver regarding risk in the near and intermediate term future. If the Dollar is strong, market participants will likely reduce risk. However a weakening Dollar will be a risk-on type of trading event which could lead to an extended rally in equities, precious metals, and oil.

Friday marked an important day for the U.S. Dollar Index futures as for the first time in several weeks the Dollar held higher prices into a daily close. The U.S. Dollar appears to have carved out a daily swing low on the daily chart from Friday. Furthermore, the potential for a weekly swing low at the end of this week remains quite possible. The chart below illustrates how the 100 period simple moving average has offered short term support for the past few weeks.

U.S. Dollar Index Futures Daily Chart

I would also point out that the MACD is starting to converge which is a bullish signal and the full stochastics are also demonstrating a cross on the daily time frame. As long as the 100 period moving average holds price, a rally is likely in the U.S. Dollar Index in coming weeks.

Should that rally play out, it will likely push risk assets lower. My primary target for the S&P 500 would be around the 1,300 – 1,310 price range if the selloff transpires. It is important to note that  headlines coming out of Europe could derail this analysis in short order.

Assuming that a selloff in the S&P 500 occurs it will present a difficult trading environment for market participants. Market participants are going to be in a tough position around the 1,300 price level. A rally from 1,300 could  serve to test the 2011 highs. In contrast, a confirmed breakdown of the 1,300 price level could initiate a more significant selloff towards the 1,250 area.

Should price move towards the 1,300 price level the bulls and bears will be battling it out for intermediate control of price action. This is my preferred scenario for the short term time frame, but I would only give it about a 60% chance of success at this point in time. We simply need more time to see how price action behaves the first few session of the forthcoming week.

S&P 500 Index Bearish Scenario

The alternate scenario which has about a 40% chance of success would be a sharp rally higher which likely would be produced by news coming out of Greece and/or the Eurozone that pushes the Euro higher. Right now risk is high due to the sensitivity of price to headline risk. With that said, the bullish alternative scenario is shown below.

S&P 500 Index Bullish Scenario

At this point we just do not have enough price information to give us clarity regarding the most probable outcome. The price action in the Euro is going to drive price action for the S&P 500 and other risk assets in weeks ahead.

Anything is possible in the short term, but I have to give a slight edge to the bears simply based on the price action Friday and the fact that almost every indicator I follow is screaming that the equities market is severely overbought. The price action this week should be telling. Headline risk is excruciatingly high, trade safely in the coming week!

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How to Trade This Headline Driven Stock Market

With all eyes on the unemployment report and Europe, the CME Group’s PR Department nearly created an all out panic with their announcement after the market close on Friday relating to futures maintenance margin. The original statement was vague and I was quite concerned until I checked out the CME Group’s web page and the PR Department sent an update clarifying their position. At this point I think the crisis has been averted, but this is just another reminder that we live in “interesting times.”

Keep in mind that if the CME starts raising margin rates across the board for futures contracts in order to protect themselves stocks and commodities could collapse. Silver recently has is margin rates increased and silver since then dropped 25% in value. So imagine if they raised the rates for more commodities…

The current price action in the marketplace pales in comparison to the world’s geopolitical tensions and deteriorating social mood. 

In my trading career, I have never seen the price action in the indices react so violently to intraday headlines and rumors. Risk is high and the types of traders profiting from this market are day traders and very short term traders with trades lasting just a couple hours to 24 hours in length. Aggressive trading which small position sizes is all that can be done right now. This is not meant to be investment advice, but more as a function of the market environment in which we find ourselves currently trading within.

Right now it is hard to say where price action in the broader indices heads in the short run.  One headline out of Greece or Italy could dramatically alter economic history. In the intermediate term I remain neutral to bearish for a number of reasons. One indicator I follow is the bullish percent index on the S&P 500 which at this point is arguing for lower prices.

The chart below illustrates the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index:

As can be seen above, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is presently at an overbought status. When looking at the relative strength and full stochastics indicators one would argue that a pullback is warranted. Historically when the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is this overbought, a pullback ensues which ultimately sees the S&P 500 Index selloff. The more arduous task is trying to determine just how deep the pullback on the S&P 500 Index might be.

It is critical to point out that while I do believe a pullback is likely, I will not rule out a rally into the holiday season. Much of the near term price action is going to be dictated by headlines coming out of Greece and the rest of Europe. In addition to Greece, Italy is also starting to see increased concern regarding an unsustainable fiscal condition. Depending on how the European Union handles the varying degrees of risk in the near term, we could see price action react violently in either direction.

With the market capable of moving in either direction, I wanted to point out some key price levels which should act as clues regarding potential future price action in the S&P 500. The two key support levels to monitor on the S&P 500 Index are the 1,240 and 1,220 price levels.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index below illustrates the price levels:

For bullish traders and investors the key price level to monitor is the recent highs on the S&P 500 around the 1,290 area. The weekly chart below demonstrates why this price level is critical and which overhead levels will offer additional resistance should the recent highs be taken out to the upside.

SP500 Weekly Chart Analysis:

While I am neutral in the intermediate to longer term presently, in the short run I have to lean slightly bearish simply because of the future headline risk and also because a major head and shoulders pattern has been carved out on the hourly chart of the S&P 500 Index. This type of chart pattern is synonymous with bearish price action.

The hourly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below:

Right now I remain slightly bearish, but should the head and shoulders pattern fail and/or we begin to see multiple positive reactions to news coming out of Europe a strong rally into the holiday season is likely. Unfortunately all we can do is monitor the key price levels and wait patiently for Mr. Market to tip his hand.

Until we see a breakout in either direction, we could see price action inhabit the 1,220 – 1,290 price range for several weeks before we get any more clarity of future direction. Until I see a breakout, I will remain relatively neutral with a slight short term bias to the downside based on price patterns in the shorter term time frames. This is a tough market to trade in, and I don’t want to get chopped around or do any heavy lifting. I’m going to focus my attention on high probability, low risk trade setups until directional biased trades make more sense.

In closing, I will leave you with the thoughtful muse of the late Texas Congresswoman Barbara Jordan,

“For all of its uncertainty, we cannot flee the future.”

Market Analysis and Thoughts By:

Chris Vermeulen – ETF Trading Videos & Trade Alerts

JW Jones – Options Trading videos & Options Alerts

Can the Greek Government Survive? We Doubt It

The Greek Socialist party, led by Prime Minister George Papandreou, once again threw the world of finance and trading into turmoil. The news that Greece was going to hold a referendum in January, to vote whether or not to stay in the euro or face chaos, was for sure a political move.

Here’s the question I’m asking today: If you’re a Greek citizen and the government wants to take all your benefits away, which way would you vote? My guess is they just say to heck with it, and say they are not paying back the money they owe.

I think that Greece has already psychologically defaulted and that will lead to further contagion. Italy is the next one in line, which presents a much bigger problem for the world.
We had the month of October producing one of the biggest monthly gains ever in the equity markets for that time frame. And we start out on November 1st getting beaten over the head by this little country in Europe.

I’m concerned if you have a company like MF Global declares bankruptcy based on sovereign debt, how many other players are there hanging on by their fingernails? In the scope of things, MF Global was not a huge player, yet no one knew about their exposure. How many other players are out there that have sovereign debt problem that no one knows about?

As stated for the past week or so, the longer term trends in the equity markets are still negative based on our monthly Trade Triangles. Same trends hold true for crude oil and the CRB commodity index. The only markets that we see in positive modes at the moment, are gold and the dollar index.

Now let’s go to todays video and take a look at the charts of the six markets we cover publicly.

Adam Hewison

The Unfortunate Truth About an Overbought Stock Market

Writing about financial markets is probably the most challenging endeavor I have ever immersed myself into. I am a trader first and a writer second, but I have really come to enjoy scribing missives about financial markets because it really forces me to concentrate on my analysis.

Writing for the general public has really enhanced my perception of the market and forced me to dig deeper and learn new forms of analysis. I find myself learning more and more every day and the beauty of trading is that even for the most experienced of traders there is always an opportunity to learn more. As members of my service know, I strive to be different than most of my peers as my focus is on education and being completely transparent and honest.

I want readers to know that I was wrong about my recent expectations regarding the European sovereign debt summit. I was expecting the Dollar to rally based on the recent price action and quite frankly I expected stocks to falter after running up nearly 15% into the announcement. My expectations could not have been more untimely and incorrect.

I share this with you because as I read and listen to market pundits discussing financial markets I find that too many writers and commentators flip flop their positions to always have the appearance of accuracy. In some cases, there have been television pundits that stated we were possibly going to revisit a depression in 2012 no more than 5 weeks ago. These so called experts have now changed their positions stating that we have started a new bull market in recent weeks. How can anyone take these people seriously?

Financial markets are dynamic and consistently fool the best minds and most experienced traders out there. Financial markets do not reward hubris. If a trader does not remain humble, Mr. Market will happily handle the humbling process for him. I was humbled this week. I was reminded yet again that  financial markets do not take prisoners and they show no mercy. I am sharing this with readers because I want you to know that I refuse to flip flop my position without first declaring that I was wrong.

When I am wrong, I will own up to it purely out of sense of responsibility. My word and my name actually mean something to me, and while I strive to present accurate analysis I am fallible and I will make mistakes. The key however to the mistakes that I make is my ability to learn from them and the past week was a great learning opportunity.

After regrouping and stepping back after the price action on Thursday, a few key elements really stood out to me regarding recent price action. First of all, in the short term we are extremely overbought. The chart below illustrates the number of stocks in domestic equity markets trading above their 20 period moving averages over the past 5 years:

Overbought Stock Momentum

What is apparent from the chart above is that prices are almost as overbought right now as they have been anytime in the past 5 years. The number of domestic equities trading above their 50 period moving average over the past 5 years is also nearing the highest levels seen during the same period as the chart below illustrates:

Trading Stock Market Momentum

Equities trading above the 100, 150, and 200 period moving averages are somewhat subdued by comparison meaning in the short run a possible correction appears likely. The longer term time frames are no longer oversold, but they have considerable upside to work with before we could declare that they are overbought.

Additionally, the details of the European Union’s supposed solution have not yet been released raising questions going forward. Every move that is made will create unintended consequences. As an example, since Greece had 50% of their debt written down why would Ireland or Portugal refuse to pay their debts in full?

The Irish and Portuguese governments are going to come under pressure from their constituents to renegotiate the terms of their debt based on the agreement that was made with Greece recently. Spain politicians will likely be under pressure as well. The decisions made in these so called bailouts reverberate across the geopolitical spectrum. Moral hazard still exists, it just evolves over time.

The risk premium of sovereign debt has to be adjusted since credit default swaps did not trigger payment as the write downs were considered “voluntary.” Thus credit default swaps are not the answer to hedge sovereign debt as it would appear that governments have the ability to write down debt without triggering a default based on the status of the write down. The long term unintended consequences could be severe and are unknown at this point in time.

In addition to the unknown factors impacting the European “solution”, next week the Federal Reserve will have their regular FOMC meeting and statement. There has been a lot of chatter regarding the potential for QE III to come out of this meeting. While I could be wrong, initiating QE III right after the Operation Twist announcement would lead many to believe that Operation Twist was a failure.

With interest rates at or near all time lows and the recent rally we have seen in the stock market, it does not make sense that QE III would be initiated during this meeting. It is possible that if QE III is not announced the U.S. Dollar could rally and put pressure on risk assets such as the S&P 500 in the short to intermediate term. If this sequence of events played out, a correction would be likely. The following is a daily chart of the S&P 500 with possible correction targets in place:

SPY Overbought Stock Market

Right now it is a toss up in the financial blogosphere as to the expectations of where price action will head. Are we near a top? Is this the beginning of a new bull market? I scanned through several charts Friday evening and Saturday morning and came to this realization. If the market is going to breakout and this is not a top but the beginning of a major bullish wave higher, then the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has to breakout over the 2011 highs.

The Nasdaq 100 Index is comprised of stocks such as AAPL, GOOG, INTC, and YHOO. In order for a new leg higher to transpire, hyper beta names like AAPL and GOOG have to breakout higher and show continuation with strong supporting volume. If the NDX does not breakout over the 2011 highs, a top could potentially be forming. The daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 Index is shown below:

QQQ Overbought Market

In conclusion, the short term looks like a possible correction could play out. However, it is critical to note that the longer term time frames are more neutral at this time. Furthermore, if price action cannot penetrate the 2011 highs for the Nasdaq 100 Index, I do not believe that a new bull market will have begun. If the Nasdaq 100 Index cannot breakout above the 2011 highs, we could be putting in a potential top going into the holiday season.

In closing, I will leave you with the thoughtful muse of famed writer and minister Hugh Prather, “Almost any difficulty will move in the face of honesty. When I am honest I never feel stupid. And when I am honest I am automatically humble.”

Subscribers of OTS have pocketed more than 150% return in the past few months. If you’d like to stay ahead of the market using My Low Risk Option Strategies and Trades check out OTS at Options Trading Signals.Com and take advantage of our free occasional trade ideas or a 66% coupon to sign up for daily market analysis, videos and Option Trades each week.

J.W. Jones

Just click here to check out J.W.s latest articles.

Evidence Supports the Bears’ Case for the S&P 500

I am not one to discuss fundamentals or macro views, but this situation in Europe is beginning to morph into a media frenzy. Price action in the marketplace is changing rapidly in short periods of time based on the latest press releases coming from the Eurozone summit.

I cannot help but comment on the seemingly arbitrary actions coming from this high profile meeting. Nothing has happened that market participants were not already privy too. The European Union is going to strengthen their EFSF fund by levering it up roughly 4 : 1. I have yet to hear how exactly they plan on doing this, but this action was no surprise to anyone that has read an article about the sovereign debt crisis in the past month.

There was also discussion about backstopping European banks’ capital position. Since European banks are holding billions (Euros) of risky sovereign debt instruments, it would make sense that their capitalization is a primary concern of Eurozone leaders based on current fiscal conditions. I would argue that the banks should be well capitalized regardless of economic or fiscal conditions in order for a nation to have a strong, vibrant economy that has the potential to grow organically.

The final piece of this week’s political nonsense involves write-downs on Greek debt in the neighborhood of 50% – 60% in order to stabilize Greece’s debt to GDP ratio. Apparently Eurozone leaders want to structure the write down so as to avoid payouts by credit default swaps which act as insurance against default. How does a bond take a 50% – 60% valuation mark down without a creating an event that would trigger the payout of CDS swaps?

If a write down of that magnitude does not trigger the CDS swaps, then I would argue they are useless as a tool to hedge against the default risk carried by sovereign debt instruments. If the CDS swaps do not payout as projected by European politicians, the risk assumed by those purchasing government debt obligations around the world would be altered immediately.

The impact this might have on the future pricing of risk for government debt instruments could be extremely detrimental to their ability to raise funds in the private market. Additionally, the write downs would hurt European banks’ capital positions immediately. If the CDS swaps were to pay out, bank capital ratios would suffer as those who took on counter party risk would be forced to cover their obligations thereby straining capital positions even further potentially.

Price action today suggested that the equity markets approved of the package that European leaders were working on. However, the biggest push higher came when news was released that China was interested in purchasing high quality debt instruments as a means to help prop up poorly capitalized banks and sovereign nations in the Eurozone through an IMF facility.

The market did an immediate about face which saw the Dollar selloff while the S&P 500 rallied higher into the close reversing a great deal of Tuesday’s losses. Inquiring minds wish to know where we go from here? I would be lying if I said I knew for sure which direction Mr. Market favored, however that did not stop me from looking for possible clues.

It has been a while since I checked out the short-term momentum charts that are focused on the number of stocks in U.S. domestic equity markets that are trading above their 20 & 50 period moving averages. The charts below illustrate the current market momentum:

Equities Trading Above the 20 Period Moving Average

It is rather obvious that when we look at the number of stocks trading above their 20 period moving average that momentum is running quite high presently. This chart would indicate that in the short-term time frames equities are currently overbought.

Equities Trading Above the 50 Period Moving Average

A similar conclusion can be drawn when we look at the number of stocks trading above their 50 period moving averages. It is rather obvious at this point in time that in the short to intermediate term time frames, stocks are currently at overbought levels. This is not to say that stocks will not continue to work higher, but a pullback is becoming more and more likely.

Additional evidence that would support the possibility that a pullback is likely would be the  recent bottom being carved out in the price action of the U.S. Dollar Index. The U.S. Dollar has been under selling pressure since the beginning of October, but has recently started to show signs that it could be stabilizing and setting up to rally higher.

The daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index is shown below:

The U.S. Dollar Index is sitting right at major support and is oversold based on historical price action. If the Dollar begins to push higher in coming days and weeks it is going to push equity prices considerably lower. Other risk assets such as gold, silver, and oil would also be negatively impacted by higher Dollar prices.

Members of my service know that I focus on several sectors to help give me a better idea about the broader equity markets. I regularly look at the financial sector (XLF), the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT), emerging markets (EEM), and the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) for clues about future price action in the S&P 500.

During my regular evening scan I noticed that all 4 sector/index ETF’s are trading at or near major overhead resistance. With the exception of the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT), the other 3 underlying assets have yet to breakout over their August 31^st highs. The significance of August 31^st is that is the date when the S&P 500 Index put in a major reversal right at the 1,230 price level before turning lower. It took nearly two months to regain the 1,230 level and its significance continues to hold sway.

The daily chart of IWM is shown below illustrating its failure to breakout over the August 31^st highs:

The chart above illustrates clearly that IWM has failed to breakout above the August 31^st highs. I am going to be watching IWM, XLF, & EEM closely in coming days to see if they are able to breakout similarly to the S&P 500. If they start to rollover, it will not be long before the S&P 500 likely follows suit.

Currently the underlying signals are arguing for lower prices in the short to intermediate term. While it is entirely possible that the S&P 500 rallies higher from here, it is without question that current market conditions are overbought in the short to intermediate terms.

Key sectors and indices are not showing follow through to the upside to help solidify the S&P 500′s recent break above the key 1,230 price level. Additionally, the U.S. Dollar Index is currently trading right at key support in addition to being oversold. At this time I am not playing the S&P 500 in either direction, but I will be watching the underlying price action in the U.S. Dollar Index closely. I will be watching for additional clues in the days ahead.

Market and headline risk is high presently.

Subscribers of OTS have pocketed more than 150% return in the past two months. If you’d like to stay ahead of the market using My Low Risk Option Strategies and Trades check out OTS at Options Trading Signals.com and take advantage of our free occasional trade ideas or a 66% coupon to sign up for daily market analysis, videos and Option Trades each week.

Chris Vermeulen & J.W. Jones