One Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

By Nick Giambruno

The establishment is setting up Donald Trump. The mainstream media hates him. Hollywood hates him. The “Intellectual Yet Idiot” academia class hates him. The CIA hates him. So does the rest of the Deep State, or the permanently entrenched “national security” bureaucracy. They did everything possible to stop Trump from taking office. None of it worked. They fired all of their bullets, but he still wouldn’t go down.

Of course, the Deep State could still try to assassinate Trump. It’s obvious the possibility has crossed his mind. He’s taken the unusual step of supplementing his Secret Service protection with loyal private security.
The Deep State’s next move is to pin the coming stock market collapse on Trump. When people think “Greater Depression,” they’ll think “Donald Trump.” 

The economy has been on life support since the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed has pumped it up with unprecedented amounts of “stimulus.” This has created enormous distortions and misallocations of capital that need to be flushed. Think of the trillions of dollars in money printing programs—euphemistically called quantitative easing (QE) 1, 2, and 3.

Meanwhile, with zero and even negative interest rates in many countries, rates are the lowest they’ve been in 5,000 years of recorded human history. This is not hyperbole. We’re really in uncharted territory. (Interest rates were never lower than 6% in ancient Greece, and ranged from 4% to over 12% in ancient Rome.) The too big to fail banks are even bigger than they were in 2008. They have more derivatives, and they’re much more dangerous.

If the Deep State wants to trigger a stock market collapse on par with 1929, it just has to pull the plug on the extraordinary life support measures it’s used since the last crisis. It’s already baked in the cake. It’s just a matter of when they decide to trigger the controlled demolition. Donald Trump is the perfect fall guy. And there are signs the Deep State is already starting to get its revenge. The most important variable to watch is the Federal Reserve—the quintessential establishment institution.

Source: Ben Garrison

Even though most politicians, economists, and pundits in the mainstream media won’t admit it, central banks exist to help governments finance themselves, at the expense of the average man. It’s the hidden, but real, reason they exist. The Fed accommodated Obama—effectively financing his regime’s deficits by creating new currency units. I doubt they will do Trump the same favor. And Trump will likely run up enormous deficits. Don’t forget about the $1 trillion in stimulus spending he has planned. If the Fed doesn’t gobble up the debt used to finance Trump’s spending, it will only work to push up interest rates.

Interest Rates

Manipulating interest rates to near 5,000-year lows is a crucial part of the life-support system. Now the Fed is set to pull the plug and leave Trump holding the bag. In December 2015 the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, from 0% to a mere 0.25%. The Fed kept rates there until last month, when it raised them to 0.50%. It also announced it would accelerate rate hikes throughout 2017—three in total.

There’s a good chance the Fed will announce these rate hikes during the eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings it has scheduled in 2017.

2017 FOMC Meetings
February 1	July 26
March 15	September 20
May 3	November 1
June 14	December 13

I think some of these rate hikes will be much bigger than the 0.25% most expect. They could pull a series of 0.50% rate hikes… or go even bigger. Anything greater than the normal 0.25% tempo would shock the market—and seem designed to hurt Trump.

The establishment will get its revenge on Trump. The Federal Reserve is its weapon of choice.

Trump seems aware of the situation. He recently said, “They’re keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn’t go down.” He’s also said that “We have a very false economy” and the stock market is a “big, fat, ugly bubble.” During the campaign, Trump called Fed Chair Janet Yellen “highly political.” He said the Fed should raise interest rates but won’t because of “political reasons.” (Raising rates before the election would have hurt Hillary Clinton.)

The Media

The mainstream media is another variable to watch. Paul Krugman, a New York Times economist—or, more accurately, witch doctor economist—has come out against Trump’s $1 trillion infrastructure stimulus. It’s bizarre because Krugman, a die-hard Keynesian, had previously never seen a “stimulus” program he didn’t like. Once, he even advocated faking a space-alien invasion to stimulate the economy. It shows that Krugman is not only a fool, but a hypocrite. This is a clue.

I bet the rest of the mainstream financial media—CNBC, Bloomberg, The Economist, etc.—will morph from bullish cheerleaders into pessimistic doom-and-gloomers after Trump takes office. Don’t expect them to find any “green shoots” after the market tanks on Trump’s watch. All this is why what happens after Trump’s inauguration could change everything… in sudden, unexpected ways. This is exactly why Doug Casey and I put together a time-sensitive video explaining how it could all go down.

You absolutely must see this urgent video before Trump’s inauguration in two days. Click here to watch it now.

The article One Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Obama’s Cuban Ambitions as Seen by Cubans Themselves

By Jeff Thomas

For half a century, Americans have been largely unable to visit Cuba and have had to rely on the US government and media for an understanding of the political, social and economic conditions there. What has been described as the “American Berlin Wall” has been successful in providing Americans with quite an inaccurate view.

Throughout this period, those Cubans who exited the island in 1959 (and their descendants) have maintained a propaganda programme that, rightly or wrongly, reflected their desire to return to Cuba and to once again rule it. Additionally, they’ve contributed regularly to both the primary US political parties in order to assure that the blockade would be maintained and that Americans would be kept out until such time as the island could be re-taken.

This is not to say that all is rosy in Cuba. For the past 25 years or more, I’ve periodically spent time there, observing its developments, beginning with its attempt to recover from the loss of its principle trading partner, the Soviet Union, in the early 1990s. It’s been a rocky road, as Cuba has sought to become an international tourist destination whilst attempting to maintain a closed, communist society. Results have been mixed, to say the least.

Still, the US government embargo remains in place and Americans have little real understanding of Cuba, or how the Cuban people view the US. All Americans can rely on is the “official view”—reports fed to the US media by their government, which, in turn, are influenced by Miami-based Cubans.

Recently, Barrack Obama visited Cuba, gave speeches and even walked the streets of Havana, “meeting the people”. Americans have now had time to digest the official US view of that visit, yet, understandably, have no idea whatsoever as to the Cuban view.

If I could sum up the Cuban people’s perception, based upon discussions with Cubans in Havana after the visit, I’d say that the best word to describe their reaction would be “wary”. Cubans are only too aware that Americans have, for half a century, received a highly one-sided view of anything Cuban and, for the most part, tend to agree with their leaders that any dealings with the US government should be cautious.

As in any country, there are varied viewpoints and, to be sure, the Cubans who oppose the existing regime to the point that they’ve stolen a boat and braved the seas to escape Cuba, would have a far different view from those who are glad to remain in Cuba.

A particular concern that they tend to voice is that Americans leaders are arrogant, seeming to believe that they have all the answers for every country and seem to perceive themselves as magnanimous, in offering to unilaterally change other countries “for the better”. In the present instance, they resent Mister Obama stating in a Havana speech that his country is considering diminishing its economic punishment of Cuba, but that, first, he would need to be assured that the Cuban political structure be altered to reflect the American model more closely. As stated by President Raul Castro in the Havana Reporter, “he should not expect the Cuban people to give up their destiny…for which they have made huge sacrifices.”

A continuing sore in the side of Cuba is the occupation of Guantanamo Bay. Cubans, when confronted with their government’s admitted incarceration of some citizens for political reasons, may respond by reminding Americans that Cubans regard Guantanamo as “the horrible torture center”, housing the US government’s political prisoners. They are bolstered in their view by American presidential candidates who vehemently support the continued violation of the Geneva Convention at Guantanamo. (Most Cubans have television and there’s no restriction on American broadcasts. Cubans therefore know far more about the US than Americans know about Cuba.)

Again, quoting the Havana Reporter, “The Cuban authorities request for the illegally occupied military territory to be returned, although spokespeople for Obama’s administration say that the subject is not on the agenda for discussion.”

Again, the American presidential message, as seen from the Cuban perspective, appears to be, “We’ll decide what we will or won’t do for you, and we’ll decide what you’ll do for us.”

And the discussion is not an isolated one. For many years, the UN has regularly held votes on the legality and morality of the blockade and, in each case, all members except the US and Israel vote for its elimination. Just prior to Mister Obama’s Cuban visit, Federica Mogherini, Vice President of the European Commission, reiterated the UN request for the “rejection of the economic, commercial and financial blockade imposed on Cuba by the US”, which she described as both outdated and illegal.

In his book, “Obama and the Empire”, Fidel Castro comments, “You state…that your country…would not tolerate any intervention in the hemisphere, reiterating that this right must be respected, while demanding the right to intervene anywhere in the world with the aid of hundreds of military bases and naval, air and space forces distributed across the planet. I ask: Is that the way in which the United States expresses its respect for freedom, democracy and human rights?”

To be sure, Mister Castro has his own agenda, as do all political leaders, yet his point is well taken. In spite of US pressure, he has outlasted ten US presidents since 1959. Cuba boasts universal literacy and the lowest rate of violent crime in the hemisphere, whereas, in the US, the percentage of those who are functionally illiterate varies between 15% and 35% (depending on the definition of illiteracy). The US also has both the highest number of prison inmates and the highest percentage of inmates per capita. Whether the US or Cuba has the greater claim to the moral high ground is therefore very much an individual assessment.

But, what’s the view on the street in Havana? What’s the reaction of the average Cuban to the Obama visit?

Well, for a start, people in the street, who are accustomed to seeing their leaders with a minimal entourage and few armed guards, were surprised to see a virtual army of suited protectors, making Mister Obama’s stroll through Havana anything but casual. Of course, this has become the norm for any American leader, but what message does this convey, when the visitor displays such a show of force?

In spite of this; however, a young waiter at a bistro in the popular Empedrado Callejón del Chorro commented that, whilst he doubted the sincerity of the visit, anything that brings the two countries closer together can only be an improvement. And, to be sure, younger Cubans are more likely than the previous generations to acknowledge that the inevitable passage out of the Castro’s leadership may be overdue, but that a softening of Cuban distrust of the “American imperialists” can only take place if the American government learns to regard Cuba as a sovereign nation, not as a whipping boy.

Recommended Links

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And, of course, this is a sentiment that we see worldwide. The more the US positions itself as the world’s policeman, the more it alienates the peoples of other countries. At a time when the US has begun its economic decline, it would do well to soften its approach, yet it is clearly doing the exact opposite. This does not bode well for the US. No one likes a bully. Bullies are typically only tolerated until they weaken. When this occurs, people turn on the bully, whether he is a person, or indeed, a government. What we are observing is the decline of a large nation and, soon, the rebirth of a small one. As events unfold, the comparisons between the two will be fascinating to observe.

Editor’s Note: Nick Giambruno, editor of Crisis Investing, thinks Cuba is a huge investing opportunity...
Nick is an expert “crisis investor.” He invests in markets that are bombed out, hated, and depressed. This strategy allows Nick to buy world-class companies at bargain prices… and to buy a dollar’s worth of assets for pennies. This sets him up to make big gains, like the 210% gain he made on the Cypriot hospitality business Lordos Hotels in the wake of that country’s banking crisis a few years back.

According to Nick, Cuba has been in a slow motion crisis for decades. The U.S.' ban on trade with Cuba killed any chance of economic growth for the last 60 years. But Nick says the embargo will soon become “a page in the history books.” When this happens, money should pour into Cuba. Nick has a “back door” way to profit from Cuba’s huge untapped potential...

Here’s Nick:

Cuba has over 2,000 miles of pristine coastline and the potential to be a top tourist destination. If Cuba ever opens up, there’s potential to make a fortune.

Nick’s investment is a legal way to profit from the “opening up” of Cuba while the embargo is still in place. It trades on the NASDAQ stock exchange. This investment is up over 25% in the last three months. But Nick expects it to go much higher. We can’t disclose the investment here, because it wouldn’t be fair to paying subscribers. But you can get instant access to Nick’s “back-door” Cuba investment by signing up for a trial subscription to Crisis Investing. Click here to learn more.

The article Obama’s Cuban Ambitions as Seen by Cubans Themselves was originally published at internationalman.com.

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This Weeks Webinar: Don Kaufman's "No BS Guide to Making Money Trading"

Our trading partner Don Kaufman is back this week with another great free webinar on Tuesday evening at 8 p.m. est. And Don is cutting through the BS....literally. He is calling this weeks live presentation a “No BS Guide to Making Money Trading”.

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• Why options are NOT all about market direction and timing. How you can give yourself the gift of time without paying extra so you can give your trade as much time as it needs

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• The myth that options are risky. How you can set your limited risk before you put on the trade so you know exactly what you're risking. Making this strategy the safest way to trade.

• Why you don't need a lot of money to trade. How you can generate big returns from small moves in a stock

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As always make sure you log in early so you don't lose your reserved spot since Don is limiting seating to this free presentation.

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Don Kaufman

The Energy Sectors You Should Invest in This Year

Top energy analyst Marin Katusa, frequently featured in the financial media such as Forbes, Business News, Financial Sense News Hour, and the Al Korelin Show, says two undervalued energy sectors will provide windfalls for smart investors this year.

The bullish side: The report details the most bullish energy sectors for 2014 and beyond.

In one of those bullish sectors, there is a country that boasts one of the lowest taxation rates for oil and gas plus has the benefit of a $12.00 per barrel difference in price.

The second one is an energy sector that is extremely undervalued right now, but is slated for major growth this year.

Another is poised to make big gains from the Putinization of Europe—and the resulting push for European countries to produce their own oil and gas.

See which companies are ready to make the biggest gains in the oil and gas industry this year (and it’s not the actual oil and gas producers).

The right time to get into these sectors is now, before the big gains are being made. Investors who get positioned early on can reap big rewards.

The bearish side: There are also three other energy investments that Marin recommends not to touch this year—not because these energy resources don’t have merit (Casey subscribers have invested in them before), but because the risk of losing your money is just too great right now.

Read his assessment, including which energy investments you should be bullish on for 2014 and which you’d only lose money on.

Click here for Marin’s free report, The 2014 Energy Forecast.



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The 7 Steps Of Every Market – Ignore Them At Your Own Peril

Step 1: A move begins with the sponsors (smart traders) who have insider knowledge as it relates to a particular stock or market. This information will move a market up or down depending on the insiders’ information. These buyers are smart, very smart, and recognize trading/investment opportunities very early in the markup cycle.

Step 2: Days, weeks, or sometimes months after a move has started, there is a brief mention in the electronic media (radio, cable, TV) or on one of the internet chat boards that a market has moved. The public hears for the first time and begins to get interested, but does not buy.

Step 3: A blurb of information appears in print media. The move also begins getting more exposure on blogs and internet message boards. The public starts paying a little more attention, and will buy a little bit.

Step 4: Wall Street and LaSalle Street brokers go into full hype mode and hawk the market to their customers. The public begins buying in greater volume.

Step 5: A full blown front page article appears about the particular stock or market in one of the major financial newspapers, magazines, or financial websites. This is often six months after the fact and after a market has shown its greatest appreciation. There is often heavy public buying, even a possible frenzy, as all media, brokers, and so called “gurus” start to tout the market.

Step 6: As step 5 gets underway, the sponsors or smart traders begin to move out of the market and take their profits off the table.

The Final Step: The move ends, the market falls, and investors lose money.

Does any of this sound familiar to you? If it does then you know the key rules of engagement in the market. If none of this is familiar to you then learn to recognize these seven steps asap. Your financial life depends on it!!

This is how the markets have worked since the beginning. I hope this insider market tip is of help to you.