Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Don’t Let Trump Scare You Away From the Investing Opportunity of a Lifetime

By Justin Spittler

Men with machine guns walked the streets. They rode in the backs of trucks. They posted out in front of restaurants and at busy intersections. These men weren’t thugs or criminals. They were federal police officers. They were there to keep the peace and to make you feel safe.

But all they really did was remind you that you were in a country that’s been at war for decades. I saw this firsthand two weeks ago in Mexico City. Apparently, it’s the norm. You might not be surprised by this. After all, everyone knows that Mexico’s been fighting a bloody drug war for years, one that’s claimed more than 80,000 lives since 2006.

Of course, I didn’t write this article to tell you what you already know. I wrote it because Mexico is radically rethinking how it fights its drug war. Eventually, this should save thousands of lives, transform Mexico’s economy and lead to a huge moneymaking opportunity for us. I’ll explain what I mean in a second. But you first have to understand how Mexico got this way.

Drug cartels have been terrorizing Mexico for years.…
No one understands this better than Vicente Fox. Fox was the president of Mexico from 2000 to 2006. He's seen the carnage of Mexico’s drug war firsthand. Because of this, you’d think he would be a huge drug opponent. But he’s actually one of the world’s biggest legal marijuana advocates. According to Fox, drug legalization is the only way to end the violence of Mexican drug cartels. It looks like Fox could finally get his wish, too.

Last month, Mexico’s Congress passed a bill to legalize medical marijuana.…
Reuters reported on April 28:
The measure passed in a general floor vote with 371 in favor, seven against and 11 abstentions, and now classifies the psychoactive ingredient in marijuana, tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) as "therapeutic."
The bill is now on President Enrique Peña Nieto’s desk. And there’s a good chance he’ll sign it.
After all, Peña Nieto said last April that drug use should be treated as a “public health problem” rather than a criminal matter.

In other words, Mexico is a signature away from legalizing medical marijuana.…
It could soon even legalize marijuana outright. After all, Peña Nieto proposed a bill last year that would allow Mexicans to carry up to an ounce of marijuana. Not only that, Mexico’s Supreme Court has already granted four people the right to grow marijuana for their own recreational consumption.

This is a big deal. For years, Mexico tried to align its drug policies with those of the United States. But that approach has failed miserably. Mexico now realizes that it cannot win its drug war by fighting fire with fire. If it’s going to defeat the cartels, it’s going to have to beat them at their own game.

Mexico isn’t the only major country rethinking its stance on marijuana, either.…
Canada legalized medical marijuana back in 2001. It’s now in the process of legalizing recreational marijuana nationwide. The new law, which was passed on April 13, will go into effect on July 1, 2018. That’s right. Next summer, you’ll be able to visit a store in Canada and legally buy a joint. Of course, most Casey readers don’t live in Mexico or Canada. They live in the United States, where marijuana is still illegal at the federal level. The U.S. government actually considers marijuana more dangerous than cocaine or methamphetamine. It’s completely absurd.

The good news is that this idiotic stance on marijuana probably won’t stand much longer.…
After all, 29 states along with Washington D.C. have already legalized medical marijuana. Not only that, eight states and D.C. have legalized recreational marijuana. This tells us the perception toward marijuana is changing. Of course, skeptics will tell you that the Trump administration hates marijuana. And they have a point. After all, Attorney General Jeff Sessions is on record saying that marijuana is “only slightly less awful” than heroin.

That has a lot of investors scared to invest in the U.S. marijuana industry. But if you've been reading the Dispatch, you know there’s a huge opportunity here…one that's only going to get bigger. You see, the North American marijuana industry is already a $7 billion market. By 2021, it’s going to be a $20 billion market. Eventually, it could grow into a $200 billion industry. In short, the market is growing like crazy. It’s generating hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue. And it’s already created thousands of new jobs. It would make absolutely no sense for Trump to shut it down.

If you’re bullish on the marijuana industry like I am, here’s what you can do today.…
If you live in Canada (or have access to the Toronto Stock Exchange), consider buying the Horizons Medical Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMMJ.TO), Canada’s only pot ETF. This fund invests in 16 marijuana companies. Some of them are “pure breed” pot stocks. Others are companies that serve the industry. Overall, it’s a diversified and relatively safe way to invest in the booming North American pot market.

If you do buy it, just remember that pot stocks are highly volatile. So treat this as a speculation. Only bet money you can afford to lose. You should have a long term perspective. Plan to hold it for a few years. Don’t lose sleep over its day to day moves. Unfortunately, the U.S. doesn't have its own marijuana ETF yet. But that could change soon.

Cambria Investment Management already plans to launch its own marijuana ETF.…
According to ETF.com, the fund will be called the Cambria Marijuana Industry ETF (TOKE). It will be actively managed and hold 20 to 50 of the world’s top marijuana companies. I’ll be sure to let you know when this fund goes live. Until then, use extreme discipline if you decide to buy individual U.S. pot stocks.

Understand that these companies are startups. They’re unproven. Not only that, many are “penny stocks.” This means that they trade over the counter and aren’t subject to the same financial reporting standards as companies that trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

P.S. If you’re thinking about buying pot stocks, I also encourage you to invest alongside an industry expert. That’s where Extraordinary Technology editor Chris Wood comes in. Chris, as regular readers know, has been extensively researching the marijuana industry.

Last month, he recommended what he says is "the one marijuana stock you should buy today.” But this company isn’t your typical pot stock. It’s really a biotech company that serves the marijuana industry.

You can learn all about this company, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange, by signing up for Extraordinary Technology today. Click here to begin your risk-free trial.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

The Bond King Says "Short U.S. Stock"

Image result for jeffrey gundlachShort the SP500.....That’s not something most investors would consider right now. After all, US stocks have been rallying for eight straight years. At this point, it’s hard to even remember what a down market feels like.

But that’s exactly what Jeff Gundlach thinks you should do. Gundlach, as you may know, is one of the world’s brightest investors. He manages more than $100 billion at his firm DoubleLine Capital.

On Monday, he told a room full of investors at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York to short (bet against) the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). This fund tracks the S&P 500. It’s the most heavily traded ETF on the planet.

It’s a bold call, to say the least.…
But Gundlach has a history of nailing calls like this. At last year’s Sohn Conference, he told investors to short the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) and buy the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM). If you had taken Gundlach’s advice, you’d be up 40% on this trade today. Gundlach was also one of the few people to predict that Donald Trump would become president of the United States. In June, he told CNBC:
People aren't getting along, they're not happy because of technology taking jobs, and sort of this long, slow grind of a new economy. And so they're looking for change, and I think Trump is going to win on the basis of that.
In other words, it pays to listen to Gundlach.…
But here’s the thing. Gundlach doesn’t think you should get out of stocks completely. Instead, he thinks you should “go long” emerging markets. These are countries that are on their way to becoming “developed” countries like the United States. Brazil, Russia, India, and China (also known as the “BRICs”) are the largest emerging markets.

On Monday, Gundlach told investors at the Sohn Conference to buy the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which tracks over 800 emerging market stocks. It’s one of the safest and most diversified ways to play emerging markets. Of course, you would have already known that if you’ve been reading the Dispatch.

After all, I’ve been pounding the table on emerging market stocks for months.…
In February, I outlined the bullish case for emerging markets. A month later, I told investors to “forget about US stocks” and consider emerging market stocks. I even recommended checking out EEM, just like Gundlach. Not only that, Gundlach likes emerging markets for the same reasons we do. I’ll share those with you in a moment. But let’s first look at why the “Bond King” thinks you should short the S&P 500.

U.S. stocks are incredibly expensive.…
Just look at this chart. It compares the total market value of the S&P 500 with the annual economic output of the United States, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). This key ratio is now at the highest level since the dot com bubble.

US stocks aren’t just expensive from a historical perspective, either.…
They’re also much more expensive than emerging market stocks. Gundlach explained to CNBC on Monday:
The valuation of emerging markets is half the valuation of the S&P 500 when you look at things like price to sales, price to book, [and] Dr. Shiller’s CAPE ratio.
Dispatch readers know CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price to earnings. It’s the cousin of the popular price to earnings (P/E) ratio. The only difference is that it uses 10 years’ worth of earnings instead of one. But just like the P/E ratio, a high CAPE ratio means stocks are expensive. You can see below that the CAPE ratio has surged to 29.5. That’s 76% higher than the S&P 500’s historical average. US stocks have only been this expensive two times in history: just before the Great Depression and during the dot com bubble. Meanwhile, the CAPE ratio for EEM is floating around 14, meaning it’s 52% cheaper than SPY.

To be fair, emerging market stocks have been cheaper than US stocks for years.…
And they’ve still underperformed them. But that’s starting to change. Just look at the chart below. It compares the performance of the S&P 500 with EEM. When this line is rising, it means US stocks are doing better than emerging market stocks.

You can see that’s been the case for years. But this key ratio just broke a long term upward trend line.
This tells us that emerging market stocks should outperform US stocks for years to come.

If you haven’t already, I recommend you pick up some emerging market stocks today.…
The easiest way to do this is with EEM or another major emerging market fund. These funds will give you broad exposure to emerging markets. Once you build a core position in emerging markets, you could consider investing in individual emerging markets. Right now, three of our favorite emerging markets are Poland, Colombia, and India.

As for U.S. stocks, I wouldn’t encourage everyday investors to short the S&P 500 like Gundlach recommends. Instead, I suggest you be very selective about what U.S. stocks you own. Avoid stocks trading at nosebleed valuations. Own companies with resilient business models and little debt.

The article “The Bond King” Says Short US Stocks was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Bubba’s Proprietary "Anchor Spread Trade"

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Option and stock investing involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Only invest money you can afford to lose in stocks and options. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The trade entry and exit prices represent the price of the security at the time the recommendation was made. The trade record does not represent actual investment results. Trade examples are simulated and have certain limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

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Wednesday, April 12, 2017

This “False Flag” in Syria Could Launch World War 3

By Nick Giambruno

The classic movie Fast Times at Ridgemont High offers a crash course in geopolitics. One of the characters plays on the high school football team and drives a fancy sports car. At one point, his little brother’s friend accidentally trashes the car. Terrified, they come up with a clever plan to shift the blame. They decorate it in the rival football team’s colors to make it look like the rival team vandalized the car.

Their plan works....This is called a false flag. It’s an incident designed to trick people into thinking someone else carried it out. The world’s intelligence services have long used the same tactic to nefarious effect.

Truth Is the First Casualty

Last week, dozens of people died in a chemical weapons attack in a rebel-held area in northern Syria. Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, denied responsibility. Many believe the attack was a false flag designed to pull Trump deeper into the Syrian catastrophe. It’s just the latest in a number of suspicious incidents. A few years ago, a conversation between high ranking Turkish military officials was leaked. They were discussing how to use a false flag as a pretext to invade Syria.

Then there was an infamous incident in 2013. The Assad government crossed Obama’s “red line” when it allegedly launched a nerve gas attack near the Syrian capital of Damascus. This nearly led to an overt war. Some had very serious doubts about the incident. Obama’s own Director of National Intelligence—James Clapper—told him the evidence was not a “slam dunk.” This was one of the main reasons Obama decided not to attack Assad. Since then, famed investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has revealed that the 2013 incident was likely a false flag.

Based on this history, you would think the latest attack deserved a little more scrutiny. Assad—who is winning the fight in Syria—had little incentive to launch the chemical attack. And why would he do it mere days after the US government had dropped its “Assad must go” slogan for the first time since the crisis began in 2011? At that moment, a chemical attack would have risked all of Assad’s hard won gains. It was the very thing that could reverse it all.

I don’t see any reason for him to do that. It wouldn’t make any sense. On the other hand, the-not-so-moderate rebels and their backers had all the reasons in the world. It wouldn’t be the first time they’d considered using a false flag in Syria.

“On the Verge of a Military Clash With Russia”

Russia’s prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, recently made an important statement regarding all of this. Unfortunately, the mainstream media totally ignored it.

Here’s what he said:
That’s it. The last remaining election fog has lifted. Instead of an overworked statement about a joint fight against the biggest enemy, ISIS, the Trump administration proved that it will fiercely fight the legitimate Syrian government, in a tough contradiction with international law and without UN approval, in violation of its own procedures stipulating that the Congress must first be notified of any military operation unrelated to aggression against the US. On the verge of a military clash with Russia.

Nobody is overestimating the value of pre-election promises but there must be limits of decency. Beyond that is absolute mistrust. Which is really sad for our now completely ruined relations. And which is good news for terrorists. One more thing. This military action is a clear indication of the US President’s extreme dependency on the opinion of the Washington establishment, the one that the new president strongly criticised in his inauguration speech.

Soon after his victory, I noted that everything would depend on how soon Trump’s election promises would be broken by the existing power machine. It took only two and a half months.

If the chemical attack was a false flag, it sure seems to have worked.

As tensions between the US and Russia continue to escalate, the US is barreling full speed toward a major, unprecedented crisis. If you don’t act now, there’s a good chance this crisis will destroy much or all of your hard earned savings.

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Nick Giambruno

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Can You Spot the Pattern That Sent Facebook Soaring?

In the final months of 2016 Facebook stock was all over the place. It traded up, down and sideways. Beneath the surface two primal market forces were at work, fighting to control the stock’s direction. On December 30th these forces collided. What happened next was shocking, Facebook popped 8.32% by January 10th.

Facebook call options were up 235.06% in just 11 days. A $1,000 investment would have paid you $2,350 in less than two weeks. And the crazy thing? These events happen all the time, you just need to know where to find them.

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See you in the markets!
The Stock Market Club

Saturday, April 1, 2017

The First Ever ‘Codeword’ Leak

By Porter Stansberry 

Today, an emerging story about the secret civil war being waged right now in Washington D.C. It is about to have a HUGE impact on our country. Two warnings before we begin. First, what I know so far is deeply troubling. We're approaching what will be the most dangerous period in our country's political history since the Great Depression. What could happen next scares me. But I continue to be optimistic that what will unfold will be great for our country.

Also, I'm certain that you simply won't believe much of what you'll read in today's essay. In fact, until I did my own follow-up research to verify what I could from my sources, I disregarded this story as "political nonsense" or just another D.C. conspiracy theory. Besides… it was all too horrible to believe. But then… almost everything my sources told me would happen started happening.…

Let's begin here.…
Did you know the U.S. government has a secrecy designation so restricted that virtually nobody – not even lifetime members of the intelligence community – even knows what it's called? It's not "TOP SECRET." It's way beyond that level. In late 2009, President Obama created this new level of secrecy inside our government with an executive order (No. 13526) – so Congress never approved it. Administered by the CIA, this new level of secrecy has created a covert government within the government that almost nobody knows and absolutely nobody is monitoring.

If you've ever heard the term the "Deep State" – the secret government within the government that actually holds power – then you know why a level of secrecy beyond "top secret" is so important. This new, more restricted level of secrecy was created so that the most powerful leaders of our government could communicate in total isolation. This level of secrecy is such a closely guarded secret that the name of the program itself is classified – and divulging the name is a crime, punishable by at least 10 years in a secret prison. So this level of security clearance is known only as "codeword."

At the highest levels of our D.C. government, only two dozen or so people have codeword clearances.…
I learned about this earlier this month. I was invited to lunch with someone who has held that level of security clearance. He told me about the existence of the codeword-level program. This isn't a rumor. It's a fact. For the last 30-plus years, my source has worked for and around the highest levels of our government. He is currently regarded as the president's most likely choice to become our next Federal Reserve chairman. Today, however, his clients include the world's top hedge fund managers and the leaders of America's biggest corporations. He is, in short, America's corporate representative of the Deep State.

We call him the "Metropolitan Man."

We met about a year ago. He reached out to me through a mutual friend – one of the best, young hedge fund managers in New York. He asked me to join him for dinner at the Metropolitan Club in New York, one of the most elite clubs in the United States. (Legendary banker J.P. Morgan founded the club. It's where billionaire investor Warren Buffett held his 50th birthday party. And it sits at the southeast corner of Central Park, across from The Plaza Hotel, with a great vista of Columbus Circle.) At the time, the Metropolitan Man was forecasting correctly that the world's central bankers and their negative interest rate policy were failing and that they would soon trigger a global run out of paper money and into gold. Over the next several months, gold and gold stocks soared (as you may remember).

A few days ago, the Metropolitan Man asked to see me again.…
He wanted to talk about something he had never seen before in all his years working in the government. For the first time ever, a codeword-level secret was leaked to the press. Nothing this sensitive has ever been leaked before – ever. Among senior leaders in D.C., it is widely believed that the director of the CIA himself was responsible for the codeword leak. And the rumor is that this information was then passed to the press through New York Senator Chuck Schumer's office. What was leaked?

A codeword secret briefing the CIA produced about a meeting in Trump Tower last December between a Russian ambassador and two senior Trump administration officials – Jared Kushner and Michael Flynn.
When Flynn lied about the meeting to the White House staff, he was fired. But the deeper question is: How did the CIA know about the meeting? How did it know how long the meeting lasted? How did it know exactly what was discussed? And how did that information end up in the hands of a New York Times reporter?

This backstory explains how Trump knows the CIA was spying on Trump Tower. And the counternarratives – Trump's claim that Obama was spying on him and the Democrats' claim that Trump is in league with Russia – are the beginning of a serious war. A civil war inside the Deep State itself.

Reading the newspapers won't explain how this war is being fought.…
They will never publish a clear explanation of the battle lines – or even who is fighting or why. But the outcome of these battles is likely to determine the fate of our economy for the next several decades. Let me explain why and tell you what this fight is really about. For the last 40 or so years, the U.S. economy has been built around a model that created vast power in D.C. The model has a few important components.

First, we have a highly "progressive" income tax. That ensures that anyone who makes high wages will pay for the lion's share of the government's expenses. Without extremely progressive income tax rates – where about half the country pays nothing and the top 10% pay for roughly 80% – the electorate would never continue to vote for more and more government. But it does, mostly because it doesn't have to pay for it.

Second, the government has an incredibly powerful regulatory regime in place. This allows D.C. to essentially control vast segments of our economy. Take Wall Street, for example. Who gets to sell a bond or a stock to the public? Nobody the Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't like (i.e. yours truly). This power results in tremendous amounts of "tribute" – legal fees, fines, and hidden lobbying that flows into D.C. and feeds its economic ecosystem.

And finally there's the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and "free" trade. Our country has the ability to export all of the inflation generated by our central bank. This has led to decades of lower and lower interest rates and the government's ability to borrow essentially endless amounts of money without any serious inflationary consequences. These three components form the foundations of Washington's power.

Attack any of them and you risk a huge fight with the Deep State. What Trump is doing right now via his border adjustment tax, additional tax reform, and regulatory rollback is targeting all three of them at the same time. If he wins, all of the power that has been consolidated in D.C. over the past 40 years will evaporate.

Trump has put a metaphorical gun to the head of the Deep State…
And now, the Deep State is fighting back, tooth and nail, to protect the system it has built. Look at what has happened to the middle class in America over the last 40 years. Did NAFTA prevent price inflation by allowing America's consumer economy the luxury of accessing the world's cheapest labor? Yes, it did. But the flip side was devastating to the entire manufacturing industry in the U.S. And where did the resulting wealth flow? To D.C. and to the top 1% of America's wealthiest people who were able to access foreign markets and shield the resulting income from America's tax system.

Meanwhile, America remains the only industrial country in the world with global income taxation (you have to pay federal income tax, no matter where you live) and without a value-added tax. In short, we've chosen a system that punishes wage earners, while rewarding individuals and corporations who use overseas labor. The result has been a decline in real, after-tax wages over the last 40 years. That's a recipe to destroy the middle class – and that's what has happened.

Trump's plan to effectively lower income taxes to 25% and implement a value added tax to discourage foreign production of U.S. products will turn this entire economic structure on its ear and disenfranchise the Deep State that controls it. The winners will be the middle class, small business owners, wage earners, and America's manufacturing base. The losers? Those who have invested heavily in the current Deep State regime.

Why is this scary?
Well, unlike the health reform issue, the Metropolitan Man assured me that Trump's tax reform agenda would certainly pass. "It's a done deal," he said. He told me that his job lately "has been to help major corporations understand what will be in the new laws and how they will impact various markets." That means the Deep State has been pushed into a corner. What it might do next, no one knows. "That it would leak a codeword secret. Well, I would have told you that couldn't happen. I've never seen it before, not in more than 30 years in D.C. It's scary because if it'll do that, it'll do anything. Stage a terrorist attack? Start a war with China? Nothing is impossible anymore."

That's the downside. The next several months could see our government erupt into open civil war. The FBI accusing the president of treason… The president accusing a director of the CIA of breaking the law and having him arrested. Who knows where this will lead? On the other hand, assuming the government doesn't collapse into a civil war, Trump's new economic model will become a reality before the end of the year. For some industries (and for most Americans) these changes will bring massive prosperity. And for others – especially for companies and individuals who have been living at the government trough, tough times are looming.

Here's the best part.…
I believe these coming changes are so important and could lead to so much wealth creation that I've convinced the Metropolitan Man to come forward.

We will hold a meeting with him, at our offices in Baltimore, on April 5, 2017.
The meeting with start at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. It will last approximately two hours. Security will be very tight, so plan to arrive early. Everyone will be searched. At this meeting, the Metropolitan Man will "take off his mask" and tell you about his role in the Deep State. He'll explain the importance of the codeword-secret leak. And he'll discuss what the new Trump economic model will mean for various industries and parts of our country. He'll also explain how he knows the tax reform/border adjustment laws are certain to pass Congress and what those policies will mean for our country. If you'd like to attend the meeting via a live conference call, you can listen for only $19.95. Yes, that's right. $19.95.

This is easily the most important and valuable meeting I've ever arranged
It has taken more than a decade of work to gain access to information like this… And I want you to benefit from the incredible access we've gained. For successful investors and wealthy business leaders, meeting the Metropolitan Man in person and having the opportunity to ask him questions is invaluable. His normal consulting fee is $250,000. So I believe there's tremendous value at both price points. But no matter how you plan to attend, please do whatever you must to be at this meeting. There isn't a more important event you could attend this year.

Sign Up Here

Porter Stansberry

The article The First-Ever ‘Codeword’ Leak was originally published at caseyresearch.com

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Thursday, March 23, 2017

The Dancing Bears

By Jeff Thomas

In the early 2000s, I recommended to associates that we were in for a major gold boom. Most thought that this was a ridiculous suggestion and didn’t buy a single ounce. I continued to recommend the purchase of gold regularly over the ensuing years, and the price continued to rise. Only in 2011 did they start to buy, at a time when gold was peaking. We were due for a correction and in late 2011, it arrived. For several years, the price has remained in the neighbourhood of $1,200—roughly the price it needs to be to bother removing it from the ground.

During that time, gold has periodically risen a bit, then gotten knocked down again. It’s understandable that this should happen. Central banks have a stake in holding down the gold price, since a rising gold price makes it appear more attractive than storing cash in banks. We’ve reached the point that the central banks have run out of tricks to float the economy and we’re already past due for a crash.

But crashes don’t always occur as soon as they become logical. As long as the public can be fooled into remaining confident in the system, a doomed economy can limp along for a bit before toppling. Statistics on unemployment and inflation can be fudged (and they have been). The stock market can be falsely pumped up (and it has been) in order to create the illusion that all is well. These factors, taken together with knocking down the price of gold periodically, helps to convince people that they should keep their money in cash and their cash in the bank, not in gold.

Just as in 2000, the number of people who understand that gold is not the equivalent of a stock but a store of wealth during dramatically changing times is quite small—certainly less than 1% and more likely less than 1/10th of 1%. Those that possess this understanding tend to hold gold long-term and are relatively unconcerned about fluctuations—even if they’re over $100 in a given month. They’re in it for the long haul and believe that, eventually, gold will rise dramatically and may well be the only safe haven after a crash.

But let’s go back to those speculators that waited until gold had risen dramatically before jumping on board the gold train. During the last four-year period, whenever gold rose as a result of economic and political developments, many of them would buy in once more, after it had risen significantly. Then, when it had been knocked down again, they tended to sell—often at the new bottom.

Of course, this behaviour is not limited just to the purchase of gold. In fact, a very high percentage of investors “play” the stock market in this way. They wait until everyone and his dog is buying in and the price is peaking, often buying on margin in order to maximize their positions. Then, when the bubble pops, they tend to ride the market down, hoping in vain that the price will return at least to what it was when they bought in. In essence, they tend to buy high and sell low almost every time.

The gold bears—those investors who don’t truly understand that gold is a very different animal from stocks—typically dislike gold but buy high when it becomes trendy to do so and sell low after it’s been knocked down. This dance is guaranteed to cause the gold bears to lose money time after time.

The dance is sometimes described as “chasing the market,” or “following the trends.” Brokers keep the dance going by advising their clients of established trends, telling them that they’re “missing out if they don’t get in now.” They serve as the market’s equivalent of a caller in a square dance: “Swing your client to and fro—watch his investment dollars go.”

Just as few investors understand the economic nature of gold, they also tend to overlook the fact that the broker doesn’t benefit from the success of the client—he makes his money when the client buys and sells frequently. So, of course his advice is going to be for the client to keep dancing.

So, will this dance go on as it is, ad infinitum? Well, no. There will be a dramatic change following a crash in the markets. Following any major crash, a panic occurs and whatever money is left on the table scrambles to find a new (hopefully safe) home. Following the coming crash, a portion of that money will head into gold. The price will rise dramatically, very possibly to such a degree that it can no longer be easily knocked down by the central banks.

At first the gold bears will assume that it’s an anomaly. Then, as gold passes $1,500, some will dip their toes in. As it passes $1,800, some will wade in. Beyond $2,000, this trend will strengthen quite a bit. As the crash deepens, stocks will tumble further. The bond bubble may also pop, increasing gold’s shine. At some point, bankers may begin to freeze accounts, create bank holidays, and/or confiscate deposits. At that point, gold will head into its long-predicted mania phase and the bears will be falling over each other, chasing the buying trend.

Gold will rise to a logical price in keeping with its value as a hedge against a collapsing economy. At that point, it would make sense for it to stop, but that’s not what will happen. Those who understand gold will cease their purchases and sit on what they have. But then a new dance will begin. The bears will become decidedly bullish. It’s important to note that, at this point, they will not fully understand why gold is rising so dramatically; they’ll just know that it is. They’ll want to get in on the gold rush and will do whatever they have to in order to keep buying.

They’ll find that physical gold is in short supply, as traditional holders are unwilling to sell, seemingly at any price. Potential buyers will offer $50 above spot, then $100 above spot, then more. They’ll additionally buy on margin in order to increase their position. It will be at this point that the mania will take hold. Irrationally high prices will become the new norm. How high will it go? $10,000? $20,000? Impossible to say. It will rise as high as desperation makes it rise, and we cannot now determine what that level of desperation will be.

A new bubble will be created, but this time, it won’t be in stocks or bonds. It’ll be in gold and, like all bubbles, it will eventually pop. This will occur when those who understand the nature of gold recognize that the price has far exceeded what’s logical and, as much as they value gold, they’ll sell a portion of their holdings and use the proceeds to invest in whatever assets have already bottomed and have nowhere to go but up.

They’re likely to retain a portion of their gold holdings for the same reason they always have, but will be happy to release a portion when it becomes significantly overvalued. This will cause the gold bubble to pop and the gold bears, who have recently become bulls, will wonder where it all went wrong. At this point, they still won’t understand gold; they’ll simply have chased yet another trend and lost.

So, is there a moral here? Well, if so, it’s simply that an investor should not become involved in a market that he doesn’t understand. Nor should he trust his broker to understand it for him. Ironically, as long as there have been markets, there have been those who go out on the dance floor without first learning the dance. A great deal of profit will be made by some gold investors, but the majority are likely to leave the floor with empty dance cards.

Jeff Thomas

Editor’s Note: Gold is crisis insurance. Without it, you’re highly vulnerable. And there’s a good chance the next financial crisis could wipe you out.

New York Times best selling author Doug Casey thinks that crisis is coming soon. He shares all the details in this urgent video. Click here to watch it now.

The article The Dancing Bears was originally published at caseyresearch.com

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Friday, March 10, 2017

John Carter's Next Free Webinar "How I Almost Doubled My Account in Less than 60 Days"

John Carter of Simpler Options is back with another one of his wildly popular free webinars. John is absolutely killing it again in 2017 and he has put together a 90 day trading plan to share with us.

He is calling this free webinar "How I Almost Doubled My Account in Less than 60 Days".

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Limited seats are available and as always this one will fill up fast so get your reserved spot now. This is free training on the rapid account growth strategies that are working right now, not in 2015 or 2016....right now!

So please join us Tuesday, March 21st @ 7:00 pm central time

Here's just some of what he will cover:

  *  John F. Carter will reveal his new 90 day trading plan that will take us into the 2nd quarter of 2017

  *  With the market at all time highs John shows us how to adapt to conditions most traders haven’t seen in years

  *   John will show us how he grew his account by 82% between January and February, 2017.

  *  We'll find out what’s working now because outdated strategies could be dead wrong in current conditions.

 Just Click Here to get your seat now and we'll see you Tuesday March 21st

See you there!

John F. Carter @ Simpler Options

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Why It Feels Like the Dot Com Bubble All Over Again

By Justin Spittler

Today, we’re going to do something different. As you can imagine, we hear from our readers a lot. Some of them have nice things to say. Others…not so much. Most importantly, though, we get a lot of questions. Last week, we received a question that was so important, we’re dedicating this entire issue to it. This question might be something you’re wondering yourself…and it could have a huge impact on your money.

It comes from Joseph J., a subscriber to The Casey Report:
I read today’s newsletter (Trump Should Be Careful What He Wishes For) with great interest. In it you stated that “U.S. stocks are incredibly expensive…” But my question is: Based against what? We are in uncharted territory, and every single newsletter writer that I have asked this question of has failed to provide an answer. Perhaps you will be different.
Thank you for putting us in the hot seat, Joseph. Lucky for us, we didn’t make this claim lightly. We have plenty of facts to back it up. Before we show you the proof, you have to realize something: There are many different ways to value stocks. Everyone has their preference. A lot of folks use the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Other investors look at a company’s book value or cash flow.

We prefer to use the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio.…
This ratio is the cousin of the popular P/E ratio. The only difference is that it uses 10 years’ worth of earnings instead of just the previous year’s. This smooths out the up and downs of the business cycle. It gives us a long-term view of the market. Right now, the CAPE ratio for companies in the S&P 500 is 28.4. That’s 70% higher than its historical average. U.S. stocks haven’t been this expensive since the dot com bubble.

This isn’t a good sign. As you may remember, the S&P 500 fell 41% from 2000–2002. The Nasdaq plunged 78% over the same period.

But the CAPE ratio is just one way to value stocks.…
To prove we’re not cherry picking, let’s look at some other metrics. First up, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. This ratio is just like the P/E ratio, but it uses the previous year’s sales instead of earnings. According to credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s, the S&P 500 currently trades at 2.02 times sales. That’s 40% higher than its historical average, and the highest level since at least 2000. Clearly, U.S. stocks are more expensive than normal. But that’s not even the main reason investors are nervous about them.

U.S. stocks seem to have lost touch with reality.…
As we all know, the stock market allows investors to own a piece of publicly traded companies. Most of the companies on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) are U.S. companies. Because of this, you would think the stock market would generally follow the health of the economy. If the economy’s booming, stocks should be soaring. If the economy’s struggling, stocks should be, too. That hasn’t been the case lately.

Since 2009, the S&P 500 has surged 239% to record highs. That makes this one of the strongest bull markets in U.S. history. During that same span, the U.S. economy has grown just 2% per year. That makes the current “recovery” one of the weakest since World War II. In short, Main Street hasn’t kept up with Wall Street.

The U.S. stock market is now clearly in “bubble territory”.…
Just look at the chart below. This chart compares the value of the U.S. stock market with the nation’s gross domestic income (GDI). GDI is like gross domestic product (GDP), but instead of measuring how much money a country spends, it measures how much money a country earns. It counts things like wages, corporate profits, and tax receipts. A high ratio means stocks are expensive relative to how much money an economy makes. You can see in the chart below that this key ratio is well above its housing bubble high. It’s now approaching the record high it hit during the dot-com bubble.

This is another serious red flag.…
But it doesn't mean stocks are going to crash next month, or next year. For this bubble to pop, something will have to prick it. We’re not sure what that will be…where it will come from…or when it will happen…
But we do know stocks don’t go up forever. Sooner or later, this bubble is going to end. When it does, many investors are going to take huge losses. Years’ worth of returns could disappear in a matter of months, even weeks.

The good news is that you can still crisis-proof your portfolio. Here are three ways to get started:
  1. Set aside more cash. Holding extra cash will help you avoid big losses if stocks fall. It will also put you in a position to buy stocks when they get cheaper.
  2. Own physical gold. Gold is the ultimate safe-haven asset. It’s survived every financial crisis in history. It will certainly survive the next one.
  3. Close your weakest positions. Start by selling your most expensive stocks. They tend to fall the hardest during major selloffs. You should also get rid of companies that need cheap debt to make money. If problems in the bond market continue, these companies could be in trouble.
These simple strategies could save you tens of thousands, possibly more, when the inevitable happens.

Chart of the Day

Miners are rallying again. Today’s chart shows the performance of the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index. This index tracks the performance of companies that mine commodities like gold, silver, aluminum, and copper. You can see that this index skyrocketed at the beginning of last year. It nearly doubled between January and July. Then, it went almost nowhere for six months.

Three weeks ago, the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index broke out of this sideways trading pattern. It’s now trading at its highest level since early 2015. This is very bullish. It tells us that mining stocks may have just entered a new phase of a bull market. If you’ve been thinking about buying mining stocks, now might be a good time to get in. But don’t worry if you don’t know what to buy.

We recently put together a presentation that talks about one of the richest gold deposits in the world. Our top gold analyst has never seen anything like this in his career. Early investors in the company that owns this deposit could make 1,000% or more. But this opportunity won’t last long. Just two months from now, this world-class mine will “go live.” When it does, this company’s stock should shoot through the roof. For more details on this incredible opportunity, click here.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Forget Dow 20,000… This Indicator Tells the Real Story

By Justin Spittler

It finally happened. For the last six weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been bumping against a ceiling. Yesterday, it broke through. The Dow topped 20,000 for the first time ever. Most investors are excited about this. After all, 20,000 is a big, round number. It feels like a psychological win for the bulls.

But it’s not an invitation to dive into stocks…not yet, at least. We need to see if the Dow can hold this level.
If it closes the week above 20,000, stocks could keep rallying. If it doesn’t, nothing has really changed. It could even be a warning sign. Until then, sit tight. Don’t chase stocks higher…stick to your stop losses…and hold on to your gold.

Don’t lose sight of the big picture, either.…

Remember, U.S. stocks are still very risky:
➢ They’re expensive. The S&P 500 is trading at a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of 28.4. That means large U.S. stocks are 70% more expensive than their historical average.
➢ We’re still in a profits recession. Profits for companies in the S&P 500 stopped growing in 2014.
➢ And Donald Trump is president of the United States. Trump could do wonders for the economy and stock market. But he could also unleash a major financial crisis. It's still too early to tell.

As you can see, "Dow 2,000" isn't necessarily a reason to celebrate. In fact, as we told you two weeks ago, there's something much more important you should be watching right now.

The bond market is flashing danger.…
The bond market is where companies borrow money. It’s the cornerstone of the global financial system.
It’s also bigger and more liquid than the stock market. This is why the bond market often signals danger long before it shows up in stocks.

The bond market started to unravel last summer.…
Just look at U.S. Treasury bonds. In July, the 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a record low of 1.37%. Since then, it’s nearly doubled to 2.55%. This is a serious red flag. You see, a bond’s yield rises when its price falls. In this case, yields skyrocketed because bond prices tanked. The same thing has happened in long term Treasury, municipal, and corporate bonds.

Bill Gross thinks bonds are entering a long-term bear market.…
Gross is one of the world’s top bond experts. He founded PIMCO, one of the world’s largest asset managers. He now runs a giant bond fund at Janus Capital. Two weeks ago, Gross said the bull market in bonds would come to an end when the 10-year yield tops 2.6%. Keep in mind, bonds have technically been in a bull market since the 1980s.

According to Gross, this number is far more important than Dow 20,000. And we’re only 50 basis points (0.5%) from hitting it. In other words, the nearly four-decade bull market in bonds could end any day now.
When it does, Gross says bonds will enter a secular bear market... meaning bonds could fall for years, even decades. This is why Casey Research founder Doug Casey has urged you to “sell all your bonds.”

If you haven’t already taken Doug’s advice, we encourage you to do so now.…
You should also take a good look at your other holdings. After all, problems in the bond market could soon spill over into the stock market. If this happens, utility stocks could be in big trouble. Utility companies provide electricity, gas, and water to our homes and businesses. They sell things we can’t live without. Because of this, most utility companies generate steady revenues. This helps them pay dependable dividends.

Many investors own utility stocks just for their dividends.…
That’s why a lot of people call them “bond proxies.” Utility stocks don’t just pay generous income like bonds, either. They also trade with bonds. You can see this in the chart below. It compares the performance of the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). XLU holds 28 utility stocks. TLT holds long-term Treasury bonds. XLU has traded with TLT for the better part of the last year. Both funds crashed after the election, too. But XLU has since rebounded.

You might find this odd. After all, the two funds basically moved in lockstep until a couple months ago.
But there’s a perfectly good explanation for this.…

Utility stocks pay more than Treasury bonds.…
Right now, XLU yields 3.4%. TLT yields 2.6%. That might not sound like big deal. But those extra 80 basis points (0.8%) provide a margin of safety. You see, the annual inflation rate is currently running at about 2.1%. That means the U.S. dollar is losing 2.1% of its value every year.

That’s bad news for everyday Americans. It’s also bad for bondholders. It means investors who own TLT are earning a “real” return (its dividend yield minus inflation) of 0.5%. Meanwhile, you’d be earning a real return of 1.3% if you owned XLU. Of course, utility stocks should pay more than government bonds. They’re riskier, after all. Unlike the government, utility companies can’t print money whenever they want. If they run into financial problems, they could go out of business.

Today, investors don’t seem to mind taking on extra risk for more income. But that could soon change…

Inflation could skyrocket under Donald Trump.…
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know why. For one, Trump wants to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure projects. While this could help the economy in the short run, the U.S. government will have to borrow money to fix the country’s decrepit roads, bridges, and power lines. This would likely produce a lot more inflation. If that happens, real returns could shrink even more. And that could trigger a selloff in utility stocks and other "bond proxies," like telecom and real estate stocks. In short, if you own these types of stocks just for their dividends, you might want to consider selling them now.

We recommend sticking to dividend-paying stocks that meet the following criteria.…
The company should be growing. If it isn’t, you probably own the stock just for its dividend. That’s a bad strategy right now. It should have a low payout ratio. A payout ratio can tell us if a company’s dividend is sustainable or not. A payout ratio above 100% means a company is paying out more in dividends than it earns in income. Avoid these companies whenever possible.

It shouldn’t depend on cheap credit. After the 2008 financial crisis, a lot of companies borrowed money at rock-bottom rates to pay out dividends. If rates keep rising, these companies could have a tough time paying those dividends. If you own stocks that check these boxes, your income stream should be in good shape for now.

Chart of the Day

“Trump Years” stocks are on a tear. We all know U.S. stocks took off after the election. But some stocks did better than others. Bank stocks spiked on hopes that Trump would deregulate the financial sector. Oil and gas stocks rallied because Trump is pro-energy. Industrial stocks have also surged since Election Day.

Industrial companies manufacture and distribute goods. They include construction companies and equipment makers. E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, thinks these companies will stay very busy while Trump rebuilds America’s hollowed out economy.

He’s so sure of it that he recommended four “Trump Years” stocks last month. One of those stocks is up 11% in just six weeks. Yesterday, it spiked 8% after the company crushed its fourth quarter earnings report.
The company announced higher sales, fatter profits, and lower taxes. It raised its guidance for the year. In other words, it expects to make a lot more money this year…now that Trump’s in charge.

You can learn about this company and E.B.’s other “Trump Years” stocks by signing up for The Casey Report. Click here to begin your free trial.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Wall Street’s Smoking Gun….Why Stocks Get Weird on Fridays

What if I told you there was proof that Wall Street was manipulating the markets? Every Friday, they fraudulently shift Blue Chip stock prices to the tune of $9.1 billion. This isn’t a tin foil hat conspiracy either. It’s been reported in Bloomberg, Fortune and the NY Times.

If you’ve been in the market at all over the last few years, you’re likely a victim. Your wealth, and your trading performance HAVE been impacted by this phenomenon.

Do NOT place another trade until you’ve watched this short video....watch Get The Truth

Now what if that’s actually good news? Former hedge fund manager, Roger, has identified an opportunity in the scandal. It’s a unique “income trade” that pops up 7-8 times a month - which could have paid you…

$1,670 in 10 Days....$1,616 in 6 Days....And $1,475 in 4 Days.

And, you’d still get paid even if you have no idea which way stocks are going. Even if you couldn’t time the market with a crystal ball… even if you screwed up 100% of your trades.

Find Out How

The Stock Market Club

Thursday, January 19, 2017

One Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

By Nick Giambruno

The establishment is setting up Donald Trump. The mainstream media hates him. Hollywood hates him. The “Intellectual Yet Idiot” academia class hates him. The CIA hates him. So does the rest of the Deep State, or the permanently entrenched “national security” bureaucracy. They did everything possible to stop Trump from taking office. None of it worked. They fired all of their bullets, but he still wouldn’t go down.

Of course, the Deep State could still try to assassinate Trump. It’s obvious the possibility has crossed his mind. He’s taken the unusual step of supplementing his Secret Service protection with loyal private security.
The Deep State’s next move is to pin the coming stock market collapse on Trump. When people think “Greater Depression,” they’ll think “Donald Trump.” 

The economy has been on life support since the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed has pumped it up with unprecedented amounts of “stimulus.” This has created enormous distortions and misallocations of capital that need to be flushed. Think of the trillions of dollars in money printing programs—euphemistically called quantitative easing (QE) 1, 2, and 3.

Meanwhile, with zero and even negative interest rates in many countries, rates are the lowest they’ve been in 5,000 years of recorded human history. This is not hyperbole. We’re really in uncharted territory. (Interest rates were never lower than 6% in ancient Greece, and ranged from 4% to over 12% in ancient Rome.) The too big to fail banks are even bigger than they were in 2008. They have more derivatives, and they’re much more dangerous.

If the Deep State wants to trigger a stock market collapse on par with 1929, it just has to pull the plug on the extraordinary life support measures it’s used since the last crisis. It’s already baked in the cake. It’s just a matter of when they decide to trigger the controlled demolition. Donald Trump is the perfect fall guy. And there are signs the Deep State is already starting to get its revenge. The most important variable to watch is the Federal Reserve—the quintessential establishment institution.

Source: Ben Garrison

Even though most politicians, economists, and pundits in the mainstream media won’t admit it, central banks exist to help governments finance themselves, at the expense of the average man. It’s the hidden, but real, reason they exist. The Fed accommodated Obama—effectively financing his regime’s deficits by creating new currency units. I doubt they will do Trump the same favor. And Trump will likely run up enormous deficits. Don’t forget about the $1 trillion in stimulus spending he has planned. If the Fed doesn’t gobble up the debt used to finance Trump’s spending, it will only work to push up interest rates.

Interest Rates

Manipulating interest rates to near 5,000-year lows is a crucial part of the life-support system. Now the Fed is set to pull the plug and leave Trump holding the bag. In December 2015 the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, from 0% to a mere 0.25%. The Fed kept rates there until last month, when it raised them to 0.50%. It also announced it would accelerate rate hikes throughout 2017—three in total.

There’s a good chance the Fed will announce these rate hikes during the eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings it has scheduled in 2017.

2017 FOMC Meetings
February 1 July 26
  March 15 September 20
  May 3 November 1
  June 14 December 13

I think some of these rate hikes will be much bigger than the 0.25% most expect. They could pull a series of 0.50% rate hikes… or go even bigger. Anything greater than the normal 0.25% tempo would shock the market—and seem designed to hurt Trump.

The establishment will get its revenge on Trump. The Federal Reserve is its weapon of choice.

Trump seems aware of the situation. He recently said, “They’re keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn’t go down.” He’s also said that “We have a very false economy” and the stock market is a “big, fat, ugly bubble.” During the campaign, Trump called Fed Chair Janet Yellen “highly political.” He said the Fed should raise interest rates but won’t because of “political reasons.” (Raising rates before the election would have hurt Hillary Clinton.)

The Media

The mainstream media is another variable to watch. Paul Krugman, a New York Times economist—or, more accurately, witch doctor economist—has come out against Trump’s $1 trillion infrastructure stimulus. It’s bizarre because Krugman, a die-hard Keynesian, had previously never seen a “stimulus” program he didn’t like. Once, he even advocated faking a space-alien invasion to stimulate the economy. It shows that Krugman is not only a fool, but a hypocrite. This is a clue.

I bet the rest of the mainstream financial media—CNBC, Bloomberg, The Economist, etc.—will morph from bullish cheerleaders into pessimistic doom-and-gloomers after Trump takes office. Don’t expect them to find any “green shoots” after the market tanks on Trump’s watch. All this is why what happens after Trump’s inauguration could change everything… in sudden, unexpected ways. This is exactly why Doug Casey and I put together a time-sensitive video explaining how it could all go down.

You absolutely must see this urgent video before Trump’s inauguration in two days. Click here to watch it now.

The article One Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble was originally published at caseyresearch.com.