Showing posts with label invest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label invest. Show all posts

Friday, December 11, 2015

Janet Yellen: The Best Pick Pocket in the USA

By Tony Sagami

“Some of the experiences [in Europe] suggest maybe we can use negative interest rates.”
—William Dudley, President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank

“We see now in the past few years that it [negative interest rates] has been made to work in some European countries. So I would think that in a future episode that the Fed would consider it.”
Ben Bernanke

“Indeed, I would be open to the possibility of reducing the fed funds target funds range even further, as a way of producing better labor market outcomes.”
—Narayana Kocherlakota, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank

If you are planning to travel to any major European city, you better watch your wallet because there are thousands of very skilled pickpockets looking to separate you from your valuables. Those pickpockets, however, will only get away with however much money you have in your wallet. Sure, a pickpocket can throw a major monkey wrench into your vacation, but the amount these European thieves take from you is peanuts compared to what Fed head Janet Yellen wants to steal from your bank account.

While Wall Street experts and CNBC talking heads regularly debate the "will they or wont they" interest rate liftoff, a more important question is whether or not the Federal Reserve will follow the European model of negative interest rates. Negative interest rates are nothing unusual in Europe as several central banks lowered key interest rates below 0%.


Yup, that means investors essentially pay a fee to park their money.

That parking fee just got higher last week when the European Central Bank cut its already negative deposit rate from minus 0.2% to minus 0.3%. The ECB also expanded is current quantitative easing program. The European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Danish National Bank all have interest rates below zero. In fact, the Danes have held their overnight rates at negative 0.75% since 2012.

The Swiss, however, are the undisputed leaders of the negative interest rate experiment. The SNB first moved to negative rates in December 2014 and then dropped rates to negative 0.75% in January of this year. The Swiss National Bank, by the way, meets in a couple of days, on December 10, and is widely expected to cut rates again.

The question, of course, is how negative can interest rates go? Before the end of December, I expect deposit rates in Switzerland to be between -100bps and -125bps. Remember, we’re not talking about some backwater, third world countries here. Switzerland and Germany are two of the wealthiest countries in the world, as well as the home of major financial and political centers.

And I’m not just talking about short term paper either. Finland, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Japan are all selling five year debt with negative yields. In fact, Switzerland became the first country in history to sell benchmark 10 year debt at a negative interest rate in April.

Don’t think that negative interest rates can happen in the US? Wrong!

You may have missed it, but the United States is now also a member of the “0% club”—most recently in October, when it sold $21 billion worth of 3 month bills at 0% interest.


However, that is not the first time. Since 2008, the US government has held 46 Treasury bill auctions where yields have been zero. The next step after zero is negative… and it’s becoming a real possibility. Welcome to the European model of starving savers to death!

The implications for investors are monumental.

Ask yourself, what would you do with your money if your bank started to charge you to deposit it there? Would you pay hundreds, perhaps thousands of dollars a year just to keep your money in a bank?

Option #1: Hold your nose and pay the fees.
Option #2: Move those dollars into the stock market; perhaps into dividend paying stocks.
Option #3: Buy real estate; perhaps income generating real estate.
Option #4: Invest in collectibles, like art or classic cars.
Option #5: Stuff your money under a mattress.


The point I am trying to make is, the rules for successful income investing have completely changed. If you are living (or plan on living) off the earnings of your savings, you better adapt your strategy to the new world of negative interest rates…..or plan on working as a Walmart greeter during your golden years.


Even if you think I’m nuts about negative interest rates coming to the US, there is no doubt that interest rates are not climbing anytime soon.

According to the Federal Reserve.....
"The Committee anticipates that inflation will remain quite low in the coming months.”
“The stance of monetary policy will likely remain highly accommodative for quite some time after the initial increase in the federal funds rate.”

With the US national debt approaching $19 trillion, our government doesn’t have any choice but to keep interest rates low. Sadly, our politicians are paying for their spendthrift ways by starving responsible savers.
But you can (and should) fight back by changing the way you think about investing for income. You can start by giving my high yield income letter, Yield Shark, a risk free try with 90 day money back guarantee.

Tony Sagami
Tony Sagami

30 year market expert Tony Sagami leads the Yield Shark and Rational Bear advisories at Mauldin Economics. To learn more about Yield Shark and how it helps you maximize dividend income, click here.

To learn more about Rational Bear and how you can use it to benefit from falling stocks and sectors, click here.



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Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Silver is Vital to Human Existence. Check Out the New Way We Intend to Profit.

By Jeff Clark

It’s the news everyone dreads—a call from the hospital. And it’s about one of the most important people in the world…...Your mother.

Every ALL CAPS ITEM below contains silver or is required in its use.

You hear the nurse talking urgently through your TELEPHONE and you realize it’s serious….

You grab your REMOTE CONTROL and turn down the volume on your PLASMA TV that’s playing your favorite DVD movie. You push the BUTTON and the SPEAKERS go mute. You press “save” on the KEYBOARD of your COMPUTER.

“Yes, she’s okay,” the nurse tells you. “But you need to come to the HOSPITAL right away.” That’s all you need to hear. You yell to your spouse and grab your CELLPHONE to call your siblings. “Is she alright?” your wife asks frantically. She was using the VACUUM CLEANER and WASHING MACHINE and didn’t hear the conversation.

“Yes, but hurry,” you reply, reaching to turn off the STOVE.

Your wife springs into action—she pushes the TOYS out of the way, grabs a WATER BOTTLE from the REFRIGERATOR and closes the MICROWAVE door.

You run to the bedroom and put on that new SUNBLOCK SHIRT she got you and check yourself in the MIRROR. You notice the glint off your SOLAR PANELS shines brightly through the WINDOW. You’re sweating and are glad the AIR CONDITIONER and AIR PURIFIER are working.

Your wife opens the LATCH to the front door. You notice she’s wearing those EARRINGS you got her for Christmas, the ones you put in with the CD of her favorite singer.

You unlock the car with your REMOTE KEY and rev up the ENGINE. Your wife opens the POWER WINDOWS while you adjust the POWER SEATS.

You leave the RADIO off, and are impatient at the STOPLIGHT, even though you can already see the CELLPHONE TOWERS on top of the hospital. Your wife is talking to your other family members on her CELLPHONE.

You pull up to the toll booth and the SCANNER beeps you through quickly. Your wife glances at her WATCH, and you remember she needs a new BATTERY.

You enter the hospital through the AUTOMATIC DOOR and a receptionist uses an IPAD to give you the room number. The indoor temperature is cool and you remember reading about the new INSULATION the hospital used in construction. You quickly push the ELEVATOR BUTTON for the second floor.

You reach the room and there is your mother, lying on a RECLINING BED, with a BREATHING TUBE in her mouth. She’s connected to NUMEROUS HOSPITAL DEVICES, some of which display readouts on a COMPUTER SCREEN. You try not to panic, as you see various SURGICAL INSTRUMENTS lying on a nearby SILVER tray.

“Your mother is on MEDICATION,” says a doctor walking into the room. He has a STETHOSCOPE around his neck and EYEGLASSES perched on his nose. “She fell and sustained some injuries, but she will be okay.” You see the BANDAGES on her face and arms, and the doctor notices your concern.

“We’ll take some X-RAYS to be sure she didn’t break any bones,” he says. “And she’s already on ANTIBIOTICS, so we’ll catch any infection before it starts.” You take a deep breath of relief as you realize she’ll be okay. You grasp your mother’s arm and notice she’s still wearing her favorite BRACELET.

The doctor uses a LAPTOP to update her status. The nurse uses a WATER PURIFIER to fill the water pitcher and sets it on the ANTI-SCRATCH surface of the nearby table. You settle into a PLASTIC CHAIR beside your mother and take a deep, relaxing breath. It then dawns on you just how much…..

Silver Is Essential to Modern Life


There are numerous medical examples like this every day, where silver served a cornerstone purpose to treat a hospital patient. In fact, if you’ve ever been treated by a doctor or admitted to a hospital, you’ve been a direct recipient of one or more of the medical benefits of silver. From simple bandages to life-saving equipment in operating rooms, silver is quite literally a lifesaving precious metal.

Silver is used in nearly every major industry today, from biocides and electronics to solar panels and batteries. In fact, silver is so embedded in modern life that you do not go one day without using a product made with or by silver. It’s everywhere, even if you don’t see it.

Due to the exponential increase in the number of uses for this precious metal, demand has exploded. Check out silver’s growth…
  • Jewelry and silverware use is up 27.2% since 2011.
  • India imported 5,500 tonnes of silver last year, 180% more than just two years ago.
  • Solar power accounted for 29% of added electricity capacity in America last year. “Eventually solar will become so large that there will be consequences everywhere,” says the US Solar Energy Industries Association.
  • China’s solar industry is exploding—it represented about 0.2% of the global market in 2009, but last year soared to 17%.
  • Silver demand in China exceeded a quarter million ounces last year for the first time in history.
  • New uses for silver continue to be discovered. The latest fashion—a “scough”—uses silver nanoparticles to trap and kill germs and pollutants.
  • Total industrial demand is projected to increase 5% per year through 2016—and outpace global GDP growth.
  • In spite of the fall in price, ETF demand soared in 2014, as total holdings exceeded the 2011 record high.
Demand is relentless.

But Here’s the Best Part…


If you’re an investor, the price of silver is poised for a massive rebound, after one of the most severe bear markets in history. Silver has declined three consecutive years—and hasn’t fallen four straight years since 1991. The price is so undervalued that adjusted for inflation, $17 silver is equivalent to about $4 in the year 2000!

In fact, silver is currently trading below its price before the financial crisis struck in 2008, and before the first QE program was introduced. It’s basically trading as if no money has been printed!

There is a clear disconnect between this precious metal and its price.

And that is our opportunity. The silver price has overreacted so dramatically to the downside that it is one of the most compelling investments today. In fact, it’s hard to find a more distorted market full of opportunity.

While hopefully you won’t need silver to save your life anytime soon, we’re convinced it will be a portfolio-saving investment in the very near future.

Just like gold, a stash of silver bullion will help us maintain our standard of living. In fact, silver may be more practical to use for small purchases, as there will be times you may not want to sell a full ounce of gold. And in a high inflation/decaying dollar scenario, the silver price is likely to exceed consumer price inflation, giving us further purchasing power protection.

The bottom line is that silver is quite possibly the buying opportunity of this decade. The next few years could be very exciting. And if you like bargains, silver’s neon “Sale!” sign is flashing like a disco ball.
To take advantage of this potentially life-changing setup, we have a special offer in the just-released issue of BIG GOLD…..

All investors should own a stash of sovereign bullion coins—Eagles, Maple Leafs, Philharmonics, etc. They’re the most recognizable around the world and the most liquid, an important trait when it comes time to sell.

However, we’ve identified a potentially lucrative trend in the silver market, where we can buy bullion coins with numismatic potential. In other words, these coins could increase in value much more than standard bullion coins. Even many veteran silver investors have not caught on to this trend.

How do we know these coins have numismatic upside? Because it’s already happened with similar coins. In fact, a similar coin from 2011 is now selling for near a 100% premium. And this occurred while precious metals were in a bear market!

Right now, you can buy this coin for roughly the same premium as a silver Eagle. In other words, there is essentially no risk to buying these coins—if for some reason they never accrue any numismatic value, they’ll still always sell for at least the price of bullion since they contain a full ounce.

And here’s the best part: our recommended dealer has discounted these coins exclusively for BIG GOLD readers. The price is lower than you’ll find anywhere else in the bullion market, handing us even further savings. We also include a similar discount on a gold coin with numismatic potential.

There’s much more to our May issue… We detail why we think the next bull market in gold could kick into high gear very soon (it’s in Jeff Clark’s introduction). It’s a development most mainstream investors are completely overlooking—which is our opportunity, because they’ll be surprised by this event and rush into the precious metals market literally overnight. If we’re right, it could light a fire under the gold price.

But you need to invest now, before it takes place, and while the discounted premium on these coins is still available. Either way, don’t let the current bear market fool you—it’s stretched to an extreme and will shift into a new bull market soon. Markets cycle, as history has repeatedly shown, and this market is due for its next upcycle.

Test drive BIG GOLD at no risk, with a 3 month, money back guarantee. It comes with the discount on the two bullion products that have numismatic potential, plus all our current stock recommendations, including tables that show the prices they’d hit if they matched past bull markets. The potential gains are enormous—and a tremendous opportunity if you don’t own precious metals stocks.

If you don’t like it, cancel. But we think you’ll find tremendous value for the low price. Get started now.

Jeff Clark
Precious Metals Analyst


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Wednesday, May 28, 2014

You Can’t Shoot Fish in a Barrel Without Ammunition

By Dan Steinhart, Managing Editor, The Casey Report


"FOMO"


I heard this acronym on a podcast last week. Having no clue what it meant, I consulted Google. Turns out it stands for “Fear of Missing Out.” Kids use it to describe their anxiety about missing a social event that all of their friends are attending. It struck me that investors experience FOMO too. And it usually leads to bad decisions.

From Prudent to FOMO

 

In the comfort of your home office, investing rationally is pretty easy. You think a bull market might be emerging, so you invest in the S&P 500.

But you’re not stupid. No one really knows where the stock market is headed, so you keep a healthy allocation of cash on the side to deploy the next time stocks trade at bargain prices. A prudent, rational plan.
But leave the house and things start to change. You notice that others seem to be making more money than you. First it’s the “smart money” raking in the dough—those who had the foresight and fortitude to buy during the last panic, when everyone else was retreating. You’re OK with that. Investing is their full-time job.

You can’t expect to compete with them.

But as the bull market charges higher, the caliber of people making more money than you sinks lower. The mailman starts giving you stock tips. And your gardener’s brand new Mustang, parked in your driveway just behind your sensible, 2011 Toyota Corolla, starts to irritate you.

Your brother-in-law is the last straw. He thinks he’s so smart, but he’s really just lucky to somehow always be in the right place at the right time. I mean, just last month you had to pick him up from a NASCAR tailgate after security kicked him out for lewd behavior—and now he’s taking the family to Europe with his stock market winnings?

If that guy can make $30,000 in the market in six months, you should be a millionaire. Now you feel like a sucker for holding so much cash. Why earn a pitiful 0.5% interest when you could be making… hang on, how much did the S&P 500 gain last year? 29.6%? Some quick extrapolation shows that if you invest all of your cash right now, you can retire by 2023. Factor in a couple family trips to Europe, and we’ll call it 2024 to be safe.

Cash Is Trash… Until It’s King

 

Such is the (slightly exaggerated) psychology of a bull market. FOMO is a powerful motivator and causes smart investors to do stupid things, like go all-in at the worst possible moment. Which is no small concern, since it undermines one of the most powerful investment strategies: keeping liquid cash in reserve to invest during market panics.

Take the roaring ‘20s as a long ago but pertinent example. The surging stock market of that era caused a whole lot of FOMO. Seeing their friends get rich, people who had never invested before piled into stocks.
Of course, we know how that ended. But there’s a fascinating angle that you may not have given much thought. I hadn’t until yesterday, when I finished reading The Great Depression: A Diary [click here to purchase on Amazon.com]. It’s a firsthand, anecdotal account written by attorney Benjamin Roth.

Roth emphasized that during the Great Depression, everyone knew financial assets were great bargains. The problem was hardly anyone had cash to take advantage of them.

Here are a few quotes from the book:

August 1931: I see now how very important it is for the professional man to build up a surplus in normal times. A surplus capital of $2,500 wisely invested during the depression might have meant financial security for the rest of his life. Without it he is at the mercy of the economic winds.
December 1931: It is generally believed that good stocks and bonds can now be bought at very attractive prices. The difficulty is that nobody has the cash to buy.
September 1932: I believe it can be truly said that the man who has money during this depression to invest in the highest grade investment stocks and can hold on for 2 or 3 years will be the rich man of 1935.
June 1933: I am afraid the opportunity to buy a fortune in stocks at about 10¢ on the dollar is past and so far I have been unable to take advantage of it.
July 1933: Again and again during this depression it is driven home to me that opportunity is a stern goddess who passes up those who are unprepared with liquid capital.
May 1937: The greatest chance in a lifetime to build a fortune has gone and will probably not come again soon. Very few people had any surplus to invest—it was a matter of earning enough to buy the necessaries of life.

In short, by succumbing to FOMO and investing all your cash, you might be giving up the opportunity to make a literal fortune. You can’t shoot fish in a barrel without ammunition.

Of course, the parallels from the Great Depression to present day crises aren’t exact. The U.S. was on the gold standard back then, meaning the Fed couldn’t conjure money out of thin air to reflate stock prices. Such a nationwide shortage of cash is unthinkable today, as Yellen & Friends would create however many dollars necessary to prevent stocks from plummeting 90%, as they did during the Great Depression.

That’s exactly what happened during the 2008 financial crisis, as you can see below. The Fed injected liquidity, and stocks rebounded rapidly. Compared to the Great Depression, the stock market crash of 2008 was short and sweet:


What does that mean for modern investors?

When the next crisis comes—and it will—there will be bargains. But because of the Fed’s quick trigger, investors will have to act decisively to get a piece of them.

What’s more, now that the US government has demonstrated beyond the shadow of a doubt that it will prop up the economy, bargains should dissipate even quicker next time around. After all, the hardest part of buying stocks in a crisis is overcoming fear. But that fear isn’t much of a detriment when Uncle Sam is standing by with his hand on the lever of the money-printing machine, ready to rescue the market.

Crises can creep up on you faster than you think. You may never know what hit you--unless you knew what to look for ahead of time. Watch Meltdown America, the eye opening 30-minute documentary on how to recognize (and survive) an economic crisis—with top experts including Sovereign Society Director Jeff Opdyke, investing legend Doug Casey, and Canadian National Security Council member Dr. Andre Gerolymatos.

Be prepared… it can (and will) happen here. Click here to watch Meltdown America now.


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Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Learn to Trust Your Own Financial Judgment


Keep this goal in mind as you read on: solid income and growth with minimal risk and no catastrophic losses. Just tuck it in the back of your head.


Subscriber Brian A. wrote sharing a common concern:

"I subscribe to your newsletter for the purpose of diversifying my portfolio as well as taking more responsibility for my investment future. … I look at the soaring S&P and Dow and wonder if both are appreciating from strong fundamentals, or from the Fed's easy money policy. … I listen to my broker who spouts out information of a resurgence of manufacturing coming back to US soil and (says) equities are the place to be for the near future. The other side spouts banks are insolvent, businesses are closing, (and) if it wasn't for the Fed propping things up we would be in a recession. Some say we are in a recession. I would like to see you devote an article on the subject of the 'don't worry be happy' crowd verses the 'doom and gloom' crowd."

Well, Brian, ask and ye shall receive. My recommendation, as always, is to look at the data, decide for yourself which camp you fall in—if either—and invest accordingly.

Folks who think things are turning around generally point to statistics published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). These numbers—the unemployment and inflation rates and the Consumer Price Index in particular—are used by the Federal Reserve to make or change policy. Those decisions affect the economy and the stock market.

If you swallow these numbers, you can point to a trend line going up. You may not think "happy days are here again," but you could make a case that we are headed in the right direction.

In contrast, the "gloom and doom" crowd point to data from statisticians like John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics, who make a good case against the accuracy of official government data. Williams' alternatives to the CPI, official inflation rate, and unemployment rate paint a much different picture.

Unemployment offers an easy example. When a person stops looking for work, the CBO no longer considers him unemployed. I guess that means if everyone just stopped looking, the unemployment problem would be solved.

Many in the gloom-and-doom crowd distrust the government and believe its statistics are produced for the benefit of politicians.

The gap between these two camps is wide. We recently published a special report called Bond Basics, offering safe ways to find yield in the current economy. Shortly after releasing our report, I attended a workshop with one of the top bond experts at a major brokerage firm. As I listened to his excellent presentation, I realized we agreed on many points: interest rates seem to be going up, the value of laddering and diversification, etc. We also agreed that investors (not traders) should buy bonds for one purpose: safe retirement income.

This speaker, however, recommended that baby boomers and retirees buying individual bonds only buy investment grade bonds and ladder them over an eight year period. Each year some would mature, and retirees would then replace them with other eight-year bonds. In a rising rate environment, retirees would eventually catch up he claimed. This expert mentioned inflation only once, remarking that it is "under control" and should remain low.

I went to the company's website and discovered that five year AAA bonds were paying 1.92%, and ten year bonds were paying 3.41%.

Then I went to Shadow Government Statistics. The official inflation rate as indicated by the CPI is hovering around 1.8%. However, using the same method used for calculating the CPI in 1990 (the government has changed the formula many times), the current rate comes to approximately 5.5%.
Now, it only makes sense to invest in long-term, high-quality bonds if you truly believe the government's CPI statistics. If, however, you that suspect inflation isn't quite so under control—even if you don't believe it's 5.5%—why would you invest in an eight-year bond that's virtually certain to lose to inflation?

The same logic applies to unemployment numbers. The official number is around 6.7% and coming down. Alternative calculations show a double digit unemployment rate that is rising. Should you invest heavily in stocks now? It depends again on whom you believe.

How should this affect your approach? If you hold the majority of your nest egg in cash or low-yield investments, you are losing ground to inflation. On the other hand, going all in the market if you are uncertain that the economy is improving could be equally disastrous.

A word of caution: do not let fear of getting it wrong immobilize you! It can be a very costly mistake. Keep learning and researching until you find investments you are comfortable with.

Let's look at the best- and worst-case scenarios with long term bonds. If you follow the advice of a bond salesman, you'll buy long-term corporate bonds. Ten year, AAA rated bonds currently yield around 3.41%. Assuming the bond trader is correct and inflation is not an issue, the best you could earn is 3.41%. Is that enough to get excited about when you factor in taxes and the risk of inflation?

In a recent article, I shared an example of a hypothetical investor who bought a $100,000, five-year, 6% CD on January 1, 1977. If he'd been in the 25% tax bracket, his account balance after interest would have been $124,600 at the end of five years. That's a 25.9% reduction in buying power because of high inflation during that five year period.

In that light, 3.41% does not look quite so appealing. Yes, inflation was particularly high during the Carter era, so apply a bit of common sense to the example. Nevertheless, what has caused inflation in the past? In general terms, governments spending money they don't have and printing money to make up the difference. Argentina is a timely example of this folly.

These concerns are why our research team and I paired up to produce Bond Basics. We think there are better risk and reward opportunities than long-term bonds available in today's market.

Investing in stocks is a different story. We cannot keep up with inflation and provide enough income to supplement retirement needs with bonds alone (unless you have a huge portfolio and are willing to buy higher-risk bonds). That's why our team picks stocks with surgical precision. We run them through our Five Point Balancing Test, recommend strict position limits, diversify across many sectors, and use appropriate stop losses.

Our premium publication is named Miller's Money Forever for good reason. We want to help you grow your nest egg in the safest possible manner under any market conditions. Neither the happy days nor the doomsday crowd can predict the future, so we prepare for all possibilities.

You've likely heard the refrain, "Inflation or deflation? Yes." It's a favorite of our friend John Mauldin. With that, baby boomers and retirees are forced to become kitchen-table economists and to sift through statistics that may or may not be accurate.

I haven't been shy about my opinion: I don't think the economy is improving, so retirees need to risk more than they would like in the market. That's why our Bulletproof Income strategy prepares for all market possibilities as safely as possible.

Whom should you believe? Well, is the person speaking trying to sell you something? Stockbrokers trying to garner your business tend to be optimistic about the economy. If someone is trying to sell gold or foreign currency investments, they are likely to cite a history of rising inflation and explain how their product can protect you. It doesn't mean either is wrong. And yes, the same point applies to the humble authors of investment newsletters.

At Miller's Money we share the reasoning behind every recommendation we make. We want our subscribers to know as much as we do about every pick—pros and cons. If you agree with our reasoning, act on our advice. If not, or if you have additional questions, ask us or sit tight for another pick. Never invest in something you don't understand or are uncomfortable with no matter who recommends it.

The bottom line is you have to read, learn, do your own research, and make your own judgments. Listen to all sides of any argument, and then do what you think is best.

What could be more important to baby boomers and retirees than protecting their money? Take the time necessary to teach yourself. In time you will become more comfortable trusting your own judgment. If you were savvy enough to make money, you are savvy enough to learn how to invest and protect it. Give yourself credit where it's due.


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The article Learn to Trust Your Own Financial Judgment was originally published at Millers Money.


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