Find Out Which ETFs Will Benefit From as a Stronger U.S. Dollar Reacts to Global Market Concerns

The recent news of Hedge Fund and other institutional crisis events has opened many eyes as investors and traders realize the post 2008-09 global market credit bubble has extended well beyond what many people may realize. 

Recent news that China offered a “deferment” for Chinese corporations and state run enterprises content with shadow banking credit/debt issues at a time when China is tightening monetary policy shows that a process, like the 2008 Lehman incident, may be setting up where institutional level credit/debt liabilities ripple through the global markets as global central banks attempt to reign in monetary policies.

This process is not likely to happen suddenly though. If this type of contraction in global monetary policy takes place, resulting in increased pressures to contain excessive credit/debt functions in the markets, then we believe the process may result in an extended 9 to 16+ months of “hit-and-miss” events leading up to a potentially bigger event. 

The Archegos Fund forced unwinding of trades hit the markets recently as a wake-up call. Prior to the Archegos event, the Greensill Capital collapse shocked the global markets because of the size and scope of this failure. Now, we see Credit Suisse issuing warnings that Q1 earnings may have taken a big hit because of exposure to the Greensill and Archegos assets – which is leading to Credit Suisse attempting to put the Gupta Trading Unit into insolvency....Read More Here.

Revisiting Our October 23rd "Four Stocks to Own" Article – Part I

Just before the U.S Elections, we authored an article related to four stocks/sectors that we thought would do well immediately after the November 2, 2020 elections. The article highlighted how sector rotation in almost any market trend can assist traders in finding solid trading triggers. 

We picked four stocks from various sectors for this example....

AAL   American Airlines Travel/Leisure
ACB   Aurora Cannabis Cannabis
GE     General Electric Industrial/Specialty Industry
SILJ   Junior Silver Miners ETF Precious Metals Miners


When you review my Yahoo! Finance article from October 23 and the November 6 follow up article related to these stock picks, you will quickly see that all of these stocks exhibited similar types of technical patterns. They were all bottoming in an extended rounded bottom formation and had all started to near a Pennant/Flag Apex in price. Additionally, many of them, with the exception of SILJ, had set up a very clear RSI technical divergence pattern over the course of setting up the extended bottom in price.

My research team and I selected these stocks because of key expectations related to the post election mentality of investors related to various sectors. First, the cannabis sector had a number of new US states approve cannabis legislation – providing for an expected increase in business activity for the entire cannabis sector. Second, no matter who won the election, another round of stimulus was likely to be approved resulting in increased economic opportunity for companies like GE and AAL. The Travel and Leisure sector still had its risks as a surge in COVID cases could greatly disrupt future travel expectations. Junior Silver Miners was our “hedge trade”. If none of these other stocks started to rally, then Silver Miners would likely move 15% to 20%+ higher over time....Continue Reading Here.

Wild Volatility Continues as U.S. Markets Attempt to Establish New Trend

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the U.S. and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions. Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event. This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what to trade. We attempt to identify the “Best Asset Now” (BAN) for trading based on our proprietary technical analysis and predictive modeling tools. We also attempt to stay away from excessive risks in the markets. The reason we adopt this strategy is to help protect assets and to attempt to assist our clients and followers in avoiding sometimes foolish trading decisions that can destroy your account and future.....Read More Here

Gold & Silver “Washout” - Get Ready for a Big Move Higher

Gold and Silver moved lower early on June 2nd and 3rd. Our research team believes this is a “Washout Low” price rotation following a technical pattern that will prompt a much higher rally in precious metals. This type of washout price rotation is fairly common before very big moves after Pennant/Flag formations or just after reaching major price trigger levels.

With Gold, a sideways Pennant/Flag formation has been setting up near our GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Resistance Arc. We believe the downward price rotation recently is a perfect setup for skilled technical traders to take advantage of lower entry price levels. The GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc will very likely be breached over the next 5 to 10 trading days and the price of Gold should rally well above $1850 in the process. We believe this Washout Rotation is a process of running through the Long Stops just below recent price activity that will end with a defined upside price rally over the next 2 to 5+ weeks.

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Silver has set up a completely different type of price pattern – a true Double-Top pattern. The downward price rotation recently in Silver is indicative of a weaker reaction to this massive resistance pattern and Double-Top. The likelihood that Silver will find support above $17 and mount a further upside price rally over the next 2 to 5+ weeks is still very strong. After the deep downward price collapse in Silver took place, just like what happened in 2009 and 2010, the upside potential for Silver is still massive – likely targeting $65 per ounce of higher.

This current Gold to Silver Ratio Monthly chart highlights the recent collapse in the ratio level as Silver rallied from near $12 towards current levels near $18. A similar spike in the Gold to Silver Ratio took place in 2008-09 – just before the broader market collapse in the US and Global markets took place. This happens as the initial reaction to risk in the global markets pushes Gold prices a bit higher while Silver, the often overlooked store of value, typically declines in value.

Once the price of Silver starts to rally, pushing the Gold to Silver ratio below 60 typically, both Gold and Silver start to align in price and begin to rally together. The current level of the Gold to Silver ratio is 94.9. This suggests that both Gold and Silver have quite a way to go in terms of reaching the “alignment phase”. Our researchers believe Gold will rally above $2100 to $2400 and Silver will rally above $40 to $50 before the two metals align and begin to rally together in almost equal strength.

Concluding Thoughts

Pay attention to what happens to precious metals over the next 10 to 15+ days. If our research is correct, both Gold and Silver will rally higher by about 7.5% to 14% – setting up new price highs for both metals. When the washout pattern completes, usually a fairly aggressive price trend begins where new price highs are established fairly quickly. Get ready, this should be a really nice upside price swing in precious metals over the next 6+ months or longer.

The next few years are going to be full of incredible opportunities for skilled traders and investors. Huge price swings, incredible revaluation events, and, eventually, an incredible upside rally will start again.

I’ve been trading since 1997 and I’ve lived through numerous market events. The one thing I teach my members is that risk is always a big part of trading and that’s why I structure all of my research and trading signals around “finding profits while reducing overall risks”. Sure, there are fast profits to be made in these wild market swings, but those types of trades are extremely risky for most people – and I don’t know of anyone that wants to risk 50 or 60% of their assets on a few wild trades.

I’m offering you the chance to learn to profit, as I do with my own money, from market trends that I hand-pick for my own trading. These are not wild, crazy trades – these are simple, effective, and slower types of trades that consistently build wealth. I issue about 4 to 8+ trades a month for my members and adjust trade allocation based on my proprietary allocation algo – the objective is to gain profits while managing overall risks.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system. You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you. All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades. My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop.

I offer membership services for active traders, long term investors, and wealth/asset managers. Each of these services is driven by my own experience and my proprietary trading systems and modeling systems. I have a small team of dedicated researchers and developers that do nothing but research and find trading signals for my members. Our objective is to help you protect and grow your wealth.

Please take a moment to visit The Technical Traders to learn more. I can’t say it any better than this… I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of the Technical Traders 

U.S. Equities Roar to Life After Elections

Our research team is writing this message to alert all investors and traders of a pending rotation in the U.S. stock market that may happen between now and November 15th. The upside price breakout that is occurring on November 7th, the day after the US mid-term elections, is an incredible display of global investor sentiment regarding the GOP success in the Senate and the continued business friendly expectations originating out of Washington DC. The move, today, shows how clearly a global capital market shift is still engaged in the U.S. markets and how much global investors are counting on the US to drive ROI and economic growth going forward.

Yet, we feel it is important to urge investors that our modeling systems are still suggesting an ultimate price bottom should be setting up near November 8th - 15th and that we could still see a bit of downward price rotation over the next few days before this ultimate price bottom completes. It might be too easy to get caught up in this move, today, and fail to properly understand the price rotation risks that are still active in the time/price horizon.

The ES is currently +48.00 as of the creation of this post (+1.74%). This is an incredible move higher and the 2790 level becomes critical support for the markets as long as price is able to stay above that level.

The NQ is currently +172.50 (+2.45%) and shows just how clearly investors are piling into technology, healthcare and bio-tech after the US elections. This is a real vote from investors that they believe President Trump will be able to navigate any issues going forward and that the US economy will continue to push out strong numbers.

Follow our analysis to read our most recent research posts. We have already positioned our members for this “ultimate bottom” that our predictive modeling systems suggest is in the midst of forming. We called this entire downside move, bottom rotation and the ultimate bottom pattern setting up near November 12th back on September 17. If you want to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades, visit The Technical Traders to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen

Check out Chris' "Three Hour Mastery Trading Course" Right Here

Are You Going to Ignore Steve This Time?

Steve is going ALL IN on stocks right now. His prediction is appearing on TV, radio and even as full-page segments of USA Today.The Washington Times and Investor’s Business Daily. He predicts the next 9 to 12 months will be the most profitable we’ve seen in the stock market since 1999.

Who is this Steve fellow, and should you really believe him? Here’s what we know. He’s a reclusive multimillionaire in Florida. You could have doubled your money or better 18 times over the last 17 years, by following his investment ideas.

He’s famous for predicting:

    *   The Dot-com Crash in January 2000…
    *   The Gold Boom of 2003…
    *   The Bottom of the Great Recession in 2009…
    *   The Housing Boom in 2011…
    *   The $1 trillion MSCI China Shift in May 2018 and More.

But beginning October 24th, his newest prediction could be the biggest of his career and could have a huge impact on your retirement. And here’s the strange part…

When stocks plummeted 800 points last week, Steve didn’t care at all. He says we could 5 more corrections just like this. But if you get into stocks now, he says, and do one thing with your money – he believes you could make more money over the next year than you’ve likely made over the last 20 years, combined.

I Urge You to Check Out His Full Announcement Here.

Enjoy,

Jared Kelly
Managing Director, Stansberry Research

P.S. Jim Rickards… Tim Sykes… and Robert Kiyosaki are all supporting what Steve will reveal on October 24th. See what’s happening here.

Why We Expect a 3rd Quarter Earnings Surprise

Our focus is on developing and deploying very specialized price modeling and predictive analysis systems. Our objective is to inform our members of these potential price moves and to assist them in finding successful trading opportunities. We are alerting all of our followers of a potential move today, because we believe this move could frighten some investors as we expect price rotation as Q3 earnings data is released just before the November 2018 mid-term elections.

The weekly $INDU (Dow Industrial Average) chart shows our Adaptive Predictive Learning (ADL) modeling system at work. In this example, we asked our ADL system what it believed would be the most likely outcome originating from July 23, 2018. The reason we selected this date is because this weekly price bar prompted the current upside price move. This type of price trigger can often generate highly accurate future predictive price data.

This bar consisted of 11 unique price markers that predict future price moves, first lower, then back to the upside, with a range of probability from 83% to 96%. The initial downside price move suggests that an initial -800 to -1000 pt move (-4%) will take place before November 10, 2018. Subsequently, price should begin to move upward again after the US mid-term elections and through the end of 2018.

In conclusion, October is known as a weak month for US equities so get ready for price volatility and expect the Tech heavy NASDAQ to rotate in a larger range than the S&P and the $INDU. Additionally, expect the VIX to increase in value over the next 30+ days as October passes.

I will admit the charts in July/Early September were showing signs of a market correction in mind September but no bearish reversal pattern formed and price continued higher. During this time we closed out a position in YINN for 14% profit and another 4.3% in the IYT ETF. This goes to show how we can profit to the long side even when we are expecting a sell off the markets. We trade based on technical analysis and use our ADL and other forecasting analysis to add more conviction to a move, but we don’t trade based on predictions along.

If you want to know how we help our members find and execute for greater success, visit The Technical Traders to see our completed trades for this year and learn how we can help you find great opportunities now and in the future.

Chris Vermeulen

Crude Oil Likely to Find Support in this Uptrend

I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market. I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70 - 71 ppb.

My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5 - 7+ days. I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets.

When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers. In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.

This first chart shows our proprietary price cycle modeling system at work and clearly shows the key Fibonacci support levels that I believe will act as a floor for the price of oil. I believe a bottom will form near $67 ppb and a new price rally will result in prices moving quickly back above $70 ppb.

This second chart shows the XLE price cycles on a Daily basis and I want to highlight the potential for a price move from near $73 to well above $76 (or higher) if our analysis is correct. This reflects a +4~8% price move that I believe could happen within the next 5~10+ days.

The research here shows a long entry trade over the next 2 - 3 trading days is ideal and that this move will likely end before September 21 (if the market does not change its current cycle patterns). Overall, this could be an opportunity for skilled traders and investors.

Often, followers and subscribers find my research of finding and alerting them to these types of opportunities. Most of the time, these types of triggers are ones that members would have missed or ignored. These proprietary price modeling tools provide us with a strong advantage over other traders. If you want to learn what it is like to have forward looking prediction systems backing you up every day with Daily video analysis, detailed global market research, clear trading triggers/signals and more, then join me at The Technical Traders to learn how I can help you.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Is Solar Rising From the Ashes Again?

Recently, the Solar Energy sector has popped up on our watch-list of potential sectors to pay attention to. Over the past few weeks, the Solar Energy sector has been under some pricing pressure and has retraced nearly 50% of the previous trend across the sector. We, the research team at Technical Traders Ltd. understand the Trade War and uncertainty resulting from geopolitical tensions can sometimes create opportunities in the markets for all traders/investors. We just have to be smart enough to find them end execute them efficiently.

Is Solar Energy the next big trend to hit in the Energy sector? What is the potential for these stocks to move 10%, 20% or even 30%+ higher? Let’s take a look.

This first chart, a Weekly chart of First Solar (FSLR) presents us with an interesting price setup. After a dramatic price decline in May and June of 2018, the price decline abruptly halted near $52.00. In fact, this downside move ended almost as if prices “legged down” to the last known true support level. Historically, looking all the way back to the lows of 2012, this downside move represents just a little over a 38.2% retracement from the highs and coincides almost perfectly with a 50% retracement from the lows in 2017. These two numbers interest us because they show us that $53.50~55.00 is very likely a strong support level that is currently being tested.

Simple Fibonacci expansion analysis tells us any upside potential could target $61.35 (+12.65%), 69.95 (+28.44%) & 76.20 (+39.99%). These levels don’t take into consideration the potential for new breakout highs above $82.50. If this were to happen, we could see a +50% or more price upside happen.

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, what would cause the Solar sector to begin a price advance at this stage in the economy? Renewed interest in the new technology of new infrastructure/government contracts? Replacing older technology with newer, higher performance, technology? Renewed interest from personal and corporate clients? What could cause this move?

You may remember that we’ve been suggesting that capital, cash, is always attempting to find solid sources of growth and opportunity while avoiding risk and depreciation. We’ve been suggesting that the spare cash on the planet has been rushing into the US stock markets by the boatload to take advantage of the strong dollar and the strong US stock market values. Could it be time for that capital to shift away from the FANGs and other leaders and move back into opportunistic equities that are somewhat off the radar?

Earnings for these companies for Q3 are set to be announced near October 28, 2018. With FSLR, the Q3 earnings have typically been fairly strong. One could attempt to assume Q3 2018 sales value may surprise the markets again and this could be a good time to consider the Solar Sector as an opportunity.

Our next chart is a Weekly ETF chart of INVESCO SOLAR (TAN). This chart presents a similar picture as the previous chart – a relatively strong pullback from April~June of 2018. The price pullback ends near a 50% Fibonacci retracement level and coincides quite nicely with our Tesla Vibrational Price Arc. We’ve drawn an arrow on the chart that suggests where we believe prices could be headed as long at this $21.75 support level holds.

Again, it does not take a genius to understand that any price advance from the $22.70 level to above $26.00 (or higher) would represent an almost +15% move. Any move above $28.00 from current levels would represent a +23.34% move. There is room for profits if our analysis is correct.

Lastly, we want to highlight what might be the most interesting setup in the Solar sector so far – Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ). This Monthly chart attempt to show our readers exactly what has been transpiring in the Solar Sector for the past 5+ years. After peaking in early 2014, Solar technology lost its sparkle with investors. Slowly, over time, prices waned and dropped while attempting to find support. Technically, we view that support as the lows established in 2016 (prior to and near the US Presidential elections).

After that point it time, it is pretty clear to see that some renewed interest in the Solar Sector began to take place. Slowly, price advanced from the low as volume stayed somewhat muted. New rotational highs were established while the most recent low is still testing the 2016 lows. This tells us that the price trend, at least until we see a new breakdown low, is attempting to move higher.

CSIQ is currently trading near $14.75 and has upside potential above $21.00 on a breakout move. We are not saying this is definitely going to happen, but we do believe the Solar sector is setting up for an upside move and we do believe the potential for a new rotational high price to be established is quite strong. This means, finding the proper entry point and understanding the downside risk of these trades is critical.

Once CSIQ breaks our Red downward price sloping line, we would assume the price channel has been broken and we would expect the price to begin to rise dramatically.

As a member of our subscription services, you will be alerted to these, and other triggers, as our research team identifies them for the best chances at future success.

Please take a minute to visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find new opportunities in the markets and stay ahead of these trends. Our most recent trade in UDOW returned 12.6% for our members last week. Please take a few minutes to understand how a small, dedicated, team of researchers with 53+ years of experience can make a difference in your future.

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These Three Key Elements Will Drive Stocks Higher Into Year End

Last week was a roller coaster ride for traders and investors. After a long holiday weekend, traders were greeted with concerns originating in Italy regarding political stability and the potential that any further issues could result in a collapse of the EU. Even though the risk of this happening was somewhat minor, the US markets tanked near 2% as fear seemed to override common sense. The rest of this week has been a wild ride of price rotation within a range. We’ve been reading all types of news and comments regarding all types of “what if” scenarios from analysts and researchers while scratching our heads at some of the comments.

As we stated in our earlier article regarding the Italy political crisis [read it here], the one important aspect to trading and investing is to not lose focus on the true perspective and true market fundamentals. Yes, if you are an intraday trader, these wild price swings can either be great profits or wild losses as you try to swing with these rotational moves. As a swing traders/investor, though, we care about the overall stability and direction of the markets. We are willing to ride out some rotation as long as our core analysis is sound and the technical and fundamental basis of our trades is still in place.

In our opinion, there are three things that are core elements of our analysis at the moment and these three things are likely driving the economic future of the US equity markets.

The US Dollar continues to strengthen as the US economy shows solid signs of a broad based economic increase. Oil/Energy prices have continued to decline recently, now down nearly 10% from the recent peak, and this decrease relates to supply and demand expectations throughout the end of this year (roughly 4 - 6 months into the future). The Transportation Index is pushing higher as stronger economic activity is expected throughout the rest of 2018 and into 2019.

These Three Key Elements Cross-Populate as Follows

1.  The strong US dollar is acting like a magnet for foreign capital investment as the strength of the US dollar in combination with the strength of the US economy/equities markets creates a triple-whammy for foreign capital investments. Not only are foreign investors trying to avoid capital devaluation (currency price devaluation) and debt risks in their own local markets, they are trying to find ways to achieve ROI and stability for their capital investments. With almost nowhere else to go, the US equities markets and debt markets are pretty much the only place on the planet for this triple-whammy opportunity.

2.  The strong US jobs numbers and robust economic activity, in combination with the past capital market stimulus and lowered interest rates, are creating a fuel heavy economic environment in the US not that President Trump’s deregulation and policies have injected the Oxygen needed to create the “economic combustion” that is driving this current growth. Energy prices are moderate and dropping as a result of the shift in technologies attributed to electric and hybrid transportation enterprises. All of this, jobs growth, earning growth, economic growth, moderately low interest rates and a true combusting economy, provides for much greater opportunities for an advancing US equities market.

3.  The US equities markets are rotating higher throughout the global weakness and debt concerns while the Transportation index pushes higher as a sign that US investors expect the US economy to continue to grow. Transportations lead the us equities markets by about 4 to 6 months (on average). Lower oil prices, strong jobs numbers, dynamic opportunities in the US economy and a stronger US dollar drive continued US and foreign investments into the US equities markets and debt markets.

As we have stated in earlier research posts regarding “capital migration”, capital (cash) is always seeking the best environments for stability, growth and opportunity in a continual effort to balance risk vs. reward. Capital is capable of moving across the planet relatively quickly in most cases and is always seeking the best opportunity for ROI and stability while trying to balance unknown risks and devaluation. Right now, the only games in town are the established economies, the US, Canadian and UK markets.

As you can see in the graph below US investments continue to grow as the best risk/reward for capital.

Our opinion is that until something dramatic changes this current global economic environment and risk unknown, capital will continue to rush into the US markets even if the US dollar continues to climb or oil continues to fall. The only thing that can change this equation is the one key factor in understanding risk vs. reward – when does the opportunity for reward outweigh the risk of complete failure by applying capital into any other foreign or non-established market environment? When investors believe the reward of moving capital out of the US equity markets in search of new opportunities or advantageous risk/reward setups in foreign markets exists, that is when we’ll see a change in investment dynamics resulting in more downside pricing pressure in the US markets – and we don’t believe that will happen within the immediate 4~6+ month span.

Pay attention to our most recent research as we have been dead-on in terms of calling these market swings. The NQ chart, below, shows how the tech heavy NASDAQ is leading the breakout while the YM and ES markets lag a bit. We believe all of these US majors are in the process of breaking to new all time price highs and as the foreign market turmoil slowly unfolds, we may see some moderate price rotation. Yet we believe the global economic dynamics that are currently in place create a very opportunistic, rich, green opportunity for continued capital infusion into the US equity markets and a continued moderate advance of the US Dollar.

Remember, there is now over $12 trillion in capital that has been created and introduced into the global markets over the past 10+ years. All of this capital is searching for projects and investments to develop suitable ROI and gains. Where do you think this capital is going to go for the most stable, most capable and most successful ROI available on the planet? Think about that for a minute – where else would you consider putting capital to invest for safe and consistent returns right now?

This weekend could prompt a massive upside price breakout early next week on continued positive economic news or lack of any foreign market concerns. The bias of the US equity market is, and has been, bullish – just as we have been telling our members. If you have been fooled by this recent price rotation or other research posts, please consider Technical Traders Ltd. services to learn how we can help you profit from these moves.

We know you value our research and hard work trying to keep you ahead of these market turns and swings. Please consider joining our other loyal members where you’ll receive exclusive updates, video content, trading signals and access to our proprietary price modeling systems and proprietary research reports. Our proprietary research is already showing us where this market should be trading well into July 2019. If you value our research, analysis and detailed reporting like this article, then please visit The Technical Traders to learn how you can join our other members and begin receiving our exclusive research and more.

See you in the markets!
Chris Vermeulen

Become a Technical Trader Today and Profit From the Markets....Join Here

Technical Analysis Confirms Support Level on the SPX

This week presented some interesting price rotation after an early upside breakout Sunday night. The Asian markets opened up Sunday night with the ES, NQ and YM nearly 1% higher this week. This upside breakout resulted in a clear upside trend channel breakout that our researchers believe will continue to prompt higher price legs overall. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., have issued a number of research posts over the past few weeks showing our analysis and the upside potential in the markets that should take place over the next few weeks.

We expected a broad market rally this week, yet it has not materialized as we expected this week. We consider this a stalled upside base for a new price leg higher. Take a look at this Daily SPY chart to illustrate what we believe the markets are likely to do over the next few weeks. There are two downside price channels that have recently been broken by price (RED & YELLOW lines). Additionally, there is clear price support just below $272.00 that was recently breached. These upside price channel breakouts present a very clear picture that price is attempting to push higher and breakout from these price channels.

Current price rotation has tested and retested the price support level near $272.00 and we believe this recent “stalled price base” will launch a new upside price rally driving price well above the $280.00 level.

With the holiday weekend setting up in the U.S. and the early Summer trading levels setting up, it is not uncommon for broader market moves to execute after basing/staging has executed. This current upside price action has clearly breached previous resistance channels, so we continue to believe our earlier research is correct and the US majors will mount a broad range price advance in the near future.

The VIX, on the other hand, appears poised to break lower – back to levels below $10 as the US major price advance executes. The VIX, as a measure of volatility that is quantified by historical price trend and volatility, should continue to fall if our price predictions are correct. If the US major markets continue to climb/rally, the VIX will likely fall to levels well below $10.00 and continue to establish a low volatility basing level – just as it did before the February 2018 price correction.

A holiday weekend, the start of lighter Summer trading and the recent upside breakout of these downward price channels leads us to believe the market will continue to push higher over time with the possibility of a massive upside “melt up” playing out over the next 2 - 6+ weeks. We believe this move will drive prices to new all time price highs for the US majors and will surprise many traders that believe the recent price rotation is a major market top formation.

Our exclusive Wealth Building Newsletter provides detailed market research, daily market video analysis, detailed trading signals and much more to assist you in developing better skills and greater success in your trading. One of our recent trade in natural gas using UGAZ, [check it out here] is already up over 26% and we believe it will run another 25-50% higher from here! We provide incredible opportunities for our member’s success. We urge you to visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can assist you in finding new success.

Our 53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

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Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit

Since Spring is in the air here are some colorful charts and show you where we feel the price of gold and stocks are within the current market cycles. Below are monthly charts of the SP500 index and the price of gold. The first chart shows a pattern that gold formed just before stocks hit all time new highs and the bear market started. The chart is a little noisy, lots of analysis, but we color coded each area to break it into clear bits size analysis. The chart shows you what happened and what is likely to happen again.

You Are Here in the Stock Market

This is the current monthly chart, and if you compare the price action with the above chart, you can’t help but think things are set up in a similar formation as 2007 – 2008.

What Does All This Mean?

It means, the stock market is nearing a significant top and all everyone’s long term buy and hold investments should be reviewed and prepared for a rebalancing later this year. Precious metals should do well this year, stocks should top out and for you to preserve their hard earned money cash is always king for those who don’t actively trade. But if you do trade or you are an active investor huge amounts of money can be made during times of increased volatility, precious metals, and falling stock market prices.

Today’s Stock Market Analysis – Wednesday April 28th

What an AWESOME DAY! All our positions rocketed higher with our most recent entry in SIL (silver miners) leading the way. We closed our TNA position to lock in 17.7% on the second portion of that trade. Yes, we do feel the markets will run higher, but we also like to lock in the quick, easy money trades like TNA especially when the overall market is looking and feeling a little top heavy for a day or three. The chart below of the SP500 index paints a color picture of what I feel will unfold in the very near term.

In Conclusion

Our analysis of the markets was DEAD ON. We called the 2678 level on the ES as a key resistance level to watch before any breakout to the upside would potentially happen. We also called this market bottom nearly three weeks ago on March 28, 2018 and we locked in 17.7% today with our subscribers. We have been nailing these market reversals with incredible accuracy all year and we are just getting started with our Advanced Dynamic Learning systems [preview that system here] we have developed.

The bottom line is that smart traders and investors look into the future and position their money where they feel it will increase in value the most. We say this all the time, which is money is continually looking for the best ROI and flows from one asset class to another as the market evolves. With potentially another major financial crisis forming, war, and a bear market in stocks we do not doubt that we are about to experience a huge rebalancing of money over the next few years, and I feel precious metals may be the next little hot pocket for trades.

So if you want our pre-market video analysis showing you where the markets, oil, and gold are headed every day and want out ETF trade alerts be sure to join the Wealth Building Newsletter Here!

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

This Week's Stock Market Analysis & Warning in Layman's Terms

As you likely know, the stock market, trading, and even long term investing are not easy. That’s why in this post we want to make the complex simple for you. We will do this in a way that will give you that “Eureka!” moment regarding knowing what the stock market is doing now, and where it is headed over the next 12-36 months.

Last August we spotted trends in the underlying financial system that are very early warning signs that the bull market in stocks will be coming to an end, along with this growing economy. There is a ton of data taken into account for this information, but we have broken it down into simple bite size points that simply make logical sense, from a technical analysts perspective.

First Warning

Back in April 2017, we posted an article showing the first set of data that most traders and investors do not see or follow, mortgage delinquency rates. Delinquency rates in Single Family Residential Mortgages and other Consumer Loans began to climb through the second half of 2016 and continue to rise today. We shared with readers a way to take advantage of this using the Real Estate Bear Fund (DRV). This fund is now up over 20% and climbing as it rises when real estate falls. The rise and timing of this delinquency rate increase coincide almost identically with the Fed when they raise rates. And the problem is not just mortgages defaulting, the same is happening with commercial loans, and credit card debt.

Just look at what has the fed being doing like a mad-man of late? Ya, jacking up rates like they are going out of style!

The graph below shows a red line which is the fed rate, and as that rises so do loan delinquency rates (blue line). You will also see the grey shaded areas on the graph, and these are bear markets (falling stock prices). It’s obvious that we are headed towards financial issues once again with debt and the stock market.

Mortgage Rates and Delinquency Rates on the Rise

On March 18th 2018 we post an update showing how real estate foreclosures are starting to rise dramatically! Subscribers to our Wealth Building Trading Newsletter took advantage of this as we got long SRS inverse real estate fund which jumped over 5% in the first two days of owning it.

Second Warning – Asset and Business Cycles

Because we are traders and investors our focus is on making money, so we are only looking at the blue wave/cycle on the diagram below. The blue cycle is the stock market, and the numbers posted along that cycle indicate which stocks/assets should be the most in favor, rising.

As you can see the numbers 9 and 11 at the top are both commodity based (precious metals and energy). And knowing that commodities typically perform well just before a bear market in stocks unfolds, we are on the cusp of a new trade that could last a few months and post significant gains.

COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

Take a look at the commodity index chart below. Without getting to deep in to stage analysis I will just say commodities have formed a very strong “Stage 1” and are primed and ready for a multi-month rally.

Third Warning – Psychology of the Market

This market appears to be in a EUPHORIC “wonderland” moment driven by the fact that the global central banks have created a waterfall event of cheap money that is driving all of this asset valuation recovery. And, as capital is continually searching for the best environment for ROI, it is moving into the best areas of the global economy for survival purposes which we feel should soon be commodity-related assets, then eventually cash once the bear market takes hold.

Stock Market Conclusion

In short, as long as the capital continues to flow into the securities (stocks) and commodities in search for the best return on investment, we will continue to see markets hold up. But, stay cautious because when the markets turn and money is no longer looking for the next top performing sector or commodity, but rather just wants to exit investments as a whole and convert to cash (cash is king), that is when the bear market starts, and it could be very quick and violent.

Additionally, as we’ve shown with these charts and graphs today, we are entering a frothy period in the markets, and we would urge all investors to be critically aware of the risks involved in being blind to these facets of the current stock market and housing bubbles.

With 53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

The Last Time We Saw This, Investors Doubled Their Money in Six Months

By Justin Spittler

Gold couldn’t catch a bid in December 2015. It was down more than 30%, and trading at the lowest price in nearly six years. Gold stocks, which are leveraged to the price of gold, were doing even worse. The average gold stock was 80% off its highs. Most investors wanted nothing to do with gold. But not Doug Casey. Doug knew gold would rebound. It was only a matter of time. He even told Kitco, one of the world’s biggest gold and silver retailers, on December 18, 2015, that he was buying gold hand over fist:

My opinion is if it’s not the bottom, it’s close enough to the bottom. So, I have to be an aggressive buyer of both gold and silver at this point.

Doug’s timing was nearly perfect.…
The day before, gold bottomed. It went on to gain 30% over the next six months. The average gold stock more than doubled in value over the same period.

I’m telling this story because an opportunity just like this is shaping up before our eyes. Only this time, it’s in the energy market.

Energy stocks have been beaten to a pulp.…
You can see what I mean below. It shows how the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has done since the start of the year. This fund invests in 36 major U.S. energy companies, including Exxon Mobil and Chevron. You can see that XLE is down 13% this year. That makes energy stocks the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500.

Energy stocks are now off to “one of the worst beginnings to the year ever,” according to Morgan Stanley. As if that weren’t enough to scare away most investors, look at the ugly chart below. It compares the performance of XLE with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500. When the line is rising, energy stocks are doing better than the broad market. When it’s falling, energy stocks are underperforming the S&P 500.

Energy stocks have been lagging the broad market for nearly a decade.…
As a result, energy stocks now make up just 5.9% of the S&P 500. That’s half of what the sector’s weighting was in 2011. Not only that, the 36 energy stocks that make up XLE are now worth less than the combined value of Apple and Alphabet, the parent company of Google.

Situations like this don’t last forever.…
Eventually, the pendulum swings the other way. The trick is knowing when that will happen. That’s obviously easier said than done. Plus, you have to understand that markets rarely change direction on a dime. Instead, they usually go through a bottoming process that can take weeks or longer. And it looks like energy stocks may have begun that process.

Energy stocks took off last week.…
XLE jumped 2.5% on Friday. That was the biggest one-day jump in energy stocks since last November. This week, XLE is up another 1.4%. Now, it would be easy to dismiss this as “noise.” But if energy stocks keep rallying, XLE could “break out.” The chart below shows the performance of XLE over the last 12 months. You can see that it’s been in a downtrend since late 2016.

You can see that XLE hasn’t broken out of its downtrend yet. But it could do that sooner than most investors think.

Energy companies are starting to make money again.…
Revenues for energy companies in the S&P 500 surged 34% during the first quarter of 2017. That was more than quadruple the S&P 500’s 7.6% jump in revenues. Wall Street now expects U.S energy companies to post an 18% rise in revenues when the second quarter is all said and done. Not only that, analysts expect the sector to report a more than 400% spike in second-quarter profits. For perspective, second quarter profits for the rest of the S&P 500 are expected to rise just 3.7%.

Once “the market” figures this out, watch out.…
Energy stocks are going to skyrocket just like gold stocks did in early 2016. Keep in mind, the bottoming process could take weeks or even months. So, wait for energy stocks to “carve a bottom” before diving in. That’s when stocks stop falling, trade in a tight range for a period of time, and then start heading higher. Stocks that carve a bottom often keep soaring. Just look at what GDX did after it carved a bottom early last year.

By waiting for energy stocks to carve a bottom, you’ll greatly limit your downside…without giving up a chance at big returns. I'll let you know when the time is right to invest in the energy sector. In the meantime, keep an eye on XLE and other energy funds like the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). Once they carve out bottoms, it will be a good time to buy.

The article The Last Time We Saw This, Investors Doubled Their Money in Six Months was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

They Killed Bitcoin 129 Times and Each Time It Came Back Even Stronger

By Teeka Tiwari, editor, The Palm Beach Letter

On June 20, 2011, Forbes wrote “So, That’s the End of Bitcoin Then.” On January 16, 2015, USA Today wrote “Bitcoin Is Headed to the ‘Ash Heap.’” On May 5, 2017, The Daily Reckoning wrote “The Death of Bitcoin.” Since 2011, bitcoin’s been declared dead at least 129 times.

Newsletter writers, journalists, and academics have called it a “Ponzi scheme.” Others like the idea in theory but have doubts. They are convinced the government will shut down bitcoin and render it worthless. If it were 2013, I would have agreed with them. From 2009–13, bitcoin rallied from a fraction of a penny to over $1,100… and then spectacularly crashed 85% to $185.

It looked like a classic “pump and dump” to me. That’s why I ignored it. But then something very interesting happened. Instead of collapsing back to pennies, bitcoin found support in the $200 range. Even after the bubble popped, bitcoin was still worth billions.

This intrigued me because true Ponzi schemes have zero value when they crash. The fact that bitcoin was still attracting buyers even after the onslaught of negative news, an 85% price crash, and universal scorn said something to me. It said that maybe this asset had real value. At the very least, it told me that more investigation was needed.

Lessons From the Dot Com Bubble
I’ve seen skepticism like this before back in May 1997, Amazon went public at the split equivalent of $1.30. Amazon shot up to $113 during the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. When the bubble popped, Amazon crashed 94%—to the split equivalent of $5.97. But again, something interesting happened. In the depths of the dot-com hatred, Amazon started quietly climbing in price. Back then, I made the mistake of dismissing this action.

My error was buying into the prevailing belief that dot-com stocks were dumb and worthless. I listened to the narrative instead of digging deeper into the Amazon story. That was a mistake of lazy thinking.  So when I saw the same thing happen with bitcoin, I decided to do something different. Instead of listening to the skeptics, I asked myself: “Why are people still buying this supposedly worthless asset?”

That’s when I did a deep dive into bitcoin. I traveled all over the world interviewing experts, development teams, and venture capitalists. I wanted to understand why bitcoin had value.

Even Governments Are Embracing Bitcoin
Just as important, I wanted to know what would stop the U.S. government from banning it. How would the currency outgrow its widespread reputation as a form of “black money” used by criminals? What I found out was this: At its core, bitcoin is just a way to send and receive value without the need for a trusted middleman.

Bitcoin has no central location. That means no government (including the U.S. government) can ever shut it down. In fact, several countries have already tried to ban bitcoin and found that it was impossible. At least two of them (Russia and India) have decided to recognize bitcoin as money.

Governments are realizing that it’s better to have a hand in how bitcoin is shaped and regulated than try to destroy it (which they can’t). Think back to when the U.S. government finally realized that prohibition was unenforceable. Better to regulate alcohol and tax it.

Where’s the Future Value?
The real strength of bitcoin is the underlying network of highly secure computers that support it (called the blockchain). This is where much of the value creation will come from. As I write, software developers across the world are building applications designed to piggyback off this network.

Over the next three years, we’ll begin to see a slew of new applications emerge for bitcoin and the network that supports it. They will support everything from asset tracking to recording land registries. And much more that we can’t even think of yet. That’s why bitcoin will continue to grow in value.

Since those obituaries started popping up in 2011, bitcoin has rocketed from a low of 75 cents to as high as $2,770—an astronomical 369,223% gain. The next time you find yourself being scared out of owning bitcoin by a negative article, do yourself a favor… Read the last 129 times bitcoin was declared dead.

Let the Game Come to You!
Teeka “Big T” Tiwari
Editor, The Palm Beach Letter

P.S. Like I mentioned above, I’ve traveled all around the world looking for the most explosive cryptocurrencies out there. And I’ve found three more that have grown an average of 1,183%… including one I call the “next bitcoin.”

If you missed out on the bitcoin train ride, there’s still a chance to punch your ticket to life-changing gains with the “next bitcoin” and these other coins. You can learn more about them right here.

The article They Killed Bitcoin 129 Times; Each Time, It Came Back Even Stronger was originally published at caseyresearch.com.