Could There Be a Reversal Coming to the Major U.S. Markets?

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

The Only Chart You Need To See!

There is currently limited upside potential in the SPX relative to potential downside for the months of August, September and the early part of October 2017.

There are signs for the short, intermediate and longer term trends returning for the best six months of trading officially inaugurated in November of 2017! This is the timing framework when ‘The Next Runaway Leg Up In The Stock Market Will Resume.’

In last weeks’ market action as the profit taking rotation out of the high-tech sector rotated into the Dow Industrials, it reflected

a more defensive approach while being invested in “Blue Chips” during which time it achieved a new high. Sector rotation increased especially noticeable in the transports and technology sectors that were leading the markets higher. If they continue lower, more sectors will join the decline. I am expecting a coming pop in the VIX on Aug 4, Aug 23, Sept 11 or 12 and finally Sept 28 or 29. 2017. There was a flight to safety in the Yen as well as a strengthening of the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil.

An Unusual Anomaly

Over the past couple of weeks, there was this unusual Anomaly which occurred, as you can see in the chart below. It now makes me more cautious about our long understanding of “risk interconnectivity”.

How can the equity, gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin markets ALL go HIGHER together?

Tune in every morning for my video analysis and market forecasts at The Gold & Oil Guy to know where the main ‘asset classes’ are headed tomorrow, this week, and next month.

In short, the major equities trend remains to the upside but its likely to take shape in a slow grinding process with downward pressure starting in August fora couple months.

Be sure to follow my daily pre-market video forecasts and ETF trades by visiting here at The Gold and Oil Guy

Chris Vermeulen

Will The Bubble Pop Regardless if the Fed Never Raises Rates?

The current overall SPX pattern is a broadening top, which is usually a very reliable pattern. The market continues to look as though it wants to go even lower. The momentum shift, which I have been expecting, has been slow to start, however one should be prepared for this occurrence ahead of time. Nevertheless, the large divergences which I have been viewing, in my proprietary oscillators, are most real, and, once the selling starts, the momentum should quickly move to the downside.

The current market is being supported by a lack of sellers more so than aggressive buying. With investors still thinking that there is no other place to store their money, they appear to be content with leaving their money with risk on assets within a market that is pushing to all time highs. This type of mentality usually leads to large losses rather than big gains. There isn’t any real opportunity for growth in the SPX that I can see right now.

Dow Theory: Market Indexes Must Confirm Each Other

The Dow Theory was formulated from a series of Wall Street Journal editorials which were authored by Charles H. Dow from 1900 until the time of his death in 1902. These editorials reflected Dow’s beliefs regarding how the stock market behaved and how the market could be used to measure the health of the business environment.

Dow first used his theory to create the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Dow Jones Rail Index (now Transportation Index), which were originally compiled by Dow for TheWall Street Journal. Dow created these indexes because he felt they were an accurate reflection of the business conditions within the economy, seeing as they covered two major economic segments: industrial and rail (transportation). While these indexes have changed, over the last 100 years, the theory still applies to current market indexes.

Market indexes must confirm one another. In other words, a major reversal from a bull or bear market cannot be signaled unless both indexes (generally the Dow Industrial and Transports Averages) are in agreement. Currently, They are DIVERGING, issuing MAJOR NON-CONFIRMATION HIGH the Dow Jones Industrial average. If one couples this with the volatility index, this is a warning sign and a recipe for disaster.

The FEDs’ monetary policy over the last eight years has led to unproductive and reckless corporate behavior. The chart below shows U.S. non financials’ year on year change in net debt versus operating cash flow as measured by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITA).

The growth in operating cash flow peaked five years ago and has turned negative year over year. Net debt has continued to rise, which is not good for companies.

This has never before occurred in the post World War II period. In the cycle preceding the Great Recession, the peaks had been pretty much coincidental. Even during that cycle, they only diverged for two years, and by the time EBITA turned negative, year over year, as it has today, growth in net debt had been declining for over two years. Again, the current 5 year divergence is unprecedented in financial history. Today, most of that debt is used for financial engineering, as opposed to productive investments. In 2012, buybacks and M&A were $1.25 trillion, while all R&D and office equipment spending were $1.55 trillion. As valuations rose, since that time, R&D and office equipment grew by only $250 billion, but financial engineering grew by $750 billion, or three times this!

You can only live on your seed corn for so long. Despite there being no increase in their interest costs while growing their net borrowing by $1.7 trillion, the profit shares of the corporate sector peaked in 2012. The corporate sector, today, is stuck in a vicious cycle of earnings manipulation management, questionable allocation of capital, low productivity, declining margins and growing debt levels.

Conclusion:

In short, I continue to pound on the table to help keep you and fellow investors aware that something bad, financially, is going to take place – huge events like the tech bubble, the housing collapse a few years back, and now national financial instability. Experts saw all these events coming months and, in some cases, years in advance. Big things typically don’t happen fast, but once the momentum changes direction you better be ready for some life changing events and a change in the financial market place.

Follow my analysis in real time, swing trades, and even my long term investment positions so you can survive from the financial storm The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Spotting Reversals Using Simple Patterns in the Markets

With so many commodities trying to scratch out a bottom right now the timing couldn't be better for our trading partner John Carters release of his new eBook "Learn How Human Emotions Produces Patterns in the Markets".

In this eBook, you will learn....

  *  The 10 chart patterns ALL traders should know
  *  How to know when a chart pattern is producing an actionable signal
  *  What chart patterns are the most powerful
  *  Spot reversals using patterns
  *  How to call the top using patterns

And a whole lot more!

Take your emotions out of trading positions like.....crude oil, gold, coffee and sugar, just to name a few.

The crude oil, gold, coffee and sugar bulls took another beating this week and it's no surprise traders are dumping positions like crazy. Don't let your emotions get the best of you, put John's simple trading methods to work recognizing those reversals and be ready for them.

Get this free material now....Just Click Here!

See you in the markets putting this to work,
The Stock Market Club


Make sure to subscribe to the Stock Market Club so you don't miss a single post!

Elliott Wave Forecast: Bull Market Nearing Interim Peak on SP500

Back on September 12th with the SP 500 at 1689 we forecasted a run in the SP 500 to 1829, a very specific number. We use Elliott Wave Theory and Analysis in part to come up with projected pivots for the SP 500 and this was our projection.

Elliott Wave Analysis is based largely on Human Behavioral patterns that repeat over and over again throughout time. It’s really crowd behavior or herd mentality as applied to the broader stock markets. This can also apply to individual stocks, precious metals and more. At the end of the day, an individual stock is worth what investors believe it is worth, and it won’t necessarily reflect what a private valuation may accord it.

With that in mind, the stock market as a basket of 500 stocks can pretty easily be patterned out and then we can apply our Elliott Wave Theory to that pattern and predict outcomes. Back in mid-September, we believed we were in a 3rd wave up of the bull market as part of what we call Primary wave 3. The primary waves are 1-5 and Primary 3 is usually the most bullish of the 5 primary waves with 2 and 4 being corrective. Well, within Primary wave 3 you have 5 major waves… and we projected that Major wave 3 would be running to about 1829.

This projection was based on the 1267 pivot for Major wave 2 of Primary Wave Pattern 3 which was a corrective wave. We then simply applied a Fibonacci ratio to the Major wave 1 and assumed that Major wave 3 would be 161% of Major 1. That brings us to about 1822-1829… and here we are a few months later heading into Thanksgiving with the SP 500 hitting 1807 and getting close to our projection.

What will happen afterwards should be a Major wave 4 correction. We expect this to be about 130 points on the shallow side of corrections, and as much as 212 points.

So the Bull Market is not over, but Major Wave Pattern 3 of Primary 3 is coming to an end as we are in a seasonally strong period for the market. We would not be shocked to see a strong January 2014 correction in the markets as part of Major wave 4.

Here is our September 14th elliott wave forecast chart we sent to our subscribers and you can see we continue now along the same path.....Read "Elliott Wave Forecast: Bull Market Nearing Interim Peak on SP500"


Tuesdays Free webinar: How to Boost Your Returns With One Secret ETF Strategy

Trade School 101....Candlestick Patterns – Engulfing

Are you using Candlestick patterns in your trading? Candlestick charts have all kinds of potential patterns that technicians are watchful for. One of the easiest to spot is an engulfing pattern. This set up consists of two candlesticks, one of which is “engulfing” the previous one. That means the body of the second candlestick is longer than the first one. It doesn’t have to extend beyond the wicks of that first candlestick, just the real body. period of time.

Spot an engulfing candlestick and you might be seeing a reversal signal

When the real body of a second candlestick extends beyond the previous one, the participants are behaving in a particular way. The candlestick is bigger because some combination of opening price and buying or selling pressure is making it bigger. These combinations can tell you if there is potential for an existing trend to change.

Candlestick fans are watching for an engulfing candlestick of a different color

The reversals are spotted when there is a hollow candlestick engulfing a filled one or vice versa (red and green if you are using a chart program with colors.) Don’t get caught up in anything involving a doji – those are pretty easy to engulf.

If the market was in an apparent uptrend and a hollow (or green) candlestick is engulfed by a filled (or red) one, this might be a signal of a bearish reversal. The second candlestick shows that the market opened above the prior closing price and then selling pressure came in and the market was pushed below the prior opening price.

Finding a hollow (or green) candlestick engulfing a filled (or red) one could be a bullish reversal signal in an established downtrend. In this case, the hollow candlestick would show that the session opened at a price below the prior close, where the real body starts below the filled candlestick from the previous session. Buying ensued and the market price moved through and above the prior opening price.

Engulfing patterns can be easy to spot – look for larger candlestick bodies to indicate firmer potential signals

Remember, watch for the real body of a second candlestick to engulf the first. If it is a contrary to the prevailing trend, you might have a reversal signal on your hands. Look at the buying or selling pressure as an indication of market direction. As with all technical chart patterns, keep an eye on the following trading sessions to confirm the move. Watch for further weakness after a bearish engulfing pattern or continuing strength on a bullish engulfing pattern.

Check out our Free Weekly Low Risk Stock Picks

Technical Formations Made Easy

This particular technical formation has been around for years and continues to produce good profits for traders who can spot it, and better yet, take advantage of it.

In this new short video we are going to share the market, the pattern, and a price projection where we think this market is headed based the MarketClub Trade Triangle technology.

We hope that this educational video will help you spot this very same technical formation in the future. The video is extremely short and will only take a few minutes of your time, however, the lesson is priceless.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Our only request is that you tell your friends about The Stock Market Club by Tweeting and sharing this post on Facebook and other social networking sites. We would also enjoy hearing from you, so please feel free to comment here about this video.

Want to trade like Adam? Click here for FREE lessons.

Share

The Big Bullish Picture for Stocks

From Market Trend Forecast....

Back in late February 2009 I decided enough was enough, and I stuck my neck out and called for a massive bull market in stocks. I based this prediction purely on Elliott Wave patterns I identified as bottoming and the sentiment gauges were off the charts bearish. We had not seen sentiment that negative since the 2002 lows. The re-tracement of the SP 500 over the eight odd years was a textbook Elliott Wave pattern, and frankly I think I was the only person who noticed the significance of the 666 low as it related to the 1974 SP 500 lows to 1999/2000 highs. Why was that 666 number so significant and a key indicator of a major bear market cycle low? Well the reason is that marked a clear wave 2 elliott wave bottom both in price, and sentiment, and time all at once.

At that level, the SP 500 believe it or not, had retraced an exact 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1974 lows to the 1999 highs. That was very significant in that the market bottomed right there, and then began rallying upwards. At that point, it confirmed what I predicted in February of 2009, that we would begin a massive bull market up in stocks. The correction from the 1999-2000 highs lasted about 8 fibonacci years roughly, and retraced 61% (Fibonacci golden ratio) of the 25 year advance. Everyone was bearish at the lows, again, a confirming piece of evidence to get long in the winter of 2009. That brings us forward in this new bull market to October, 2010. Clearly, we bottomed in March of 2009 at 666, but it was not random at all.

We are now in the early stages of a big wave 3 up in the markets. Wave 1 ended in April 2010 (A 5 wave structure completes a large wave 1 pattern). Then wave 2 corrected in A B C fashion, which had a 38% fibonacci retracement of the prior 13 month rally. That completed wave 2 down into July 1st, and sentiment again was horrible at the recent 1040 pivot.

Now, a wave 3 structure (5 total waves) to the upside begins at 1010 on July 1st with a move to 1130, then a wave 2 to 1040, and now a wave 3 up still in progress to 1220 if I’m right. Bottom line is the long term trends are bullish until the wave patterns materially change. Once 1220 is hit, we likely get a pullback wave 4 down, then a 5th wave up to new highs past the April 2010 highs.....Read the entire article.

Get Market Trend Forecast Proprietary Forecast Indicators...Join Today!

Share

Has the S&P Broken Final Support?

In our last video on the S&P 500 (10/27), we indicated that this market may have topped out for the year. Today’s action puts in place a weekly “Trade Triangle” which indicates that a temporary or a permanent top is now in place for this market.

In this latest video, we share with you some of the ideas that we think could potentially come into play for this market. Not only do we have some downside targets in mind, but we also see a pattern that could evolve in the next several weeks which will confirm that we’ve made a serious high in this market.

Just Click Here to watch the new video and please take a moment to leave a comment on what you think of the video and where the SP 500 is headed.